Kunal Doshi

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The weakness in the market continues, with BTC and ETH down 7.5% and 9.5%, respectively, over the last seven days. With majors showing a first real sign of correction in weeks, it’s an apt time to ask if the local top could be in.&nbsp;



One segment of the market I like to watch is retail interest. When retail participation surges, it often signals that the crowd is in, which historically marks the local top in markets.&nbsp;



The first key indicator is weekly spot volume on CEXs. Last week, spot volumes reached $465 billion, approaching levels seen in January and March this year when the market was hitting new highs. Since most retail users trade through CEXs given the ease of onboarding, elevated volumes here provide a clear signal of growing retail engagement.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdsqsxAIBX1fsW9isKUsLqvY7vqxmSMOOerKhK4188P1Mn-klqSAEVNaHOJvasn9AQsLfiUSrH2LQEDtb71ngDkKs12_JwcY6E-O6RmagNotrbLDP8ug-cPbcm0Qph53pdvHss9KA?key=7EbrmKQzVODYrpHPXbYHAw" alt=""/></figure>



Search trends offer another powerful lens into retail sentiment. Interest in terms like “Crypto”, “Ethereum”, and “Altcoins” is climbing sharply, set to reach levels last seen at the peak of the 2021 bull market.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcYlbO3tbIIWZqAxNu-hE7gWZ7UFtvHrXR9q04jm9f-ycWnDtxyyP_2dXzBm0uMj2VM0LNd-FFwnhVTkkyMB0dRHfgQHxjLgq8I6VVDrs-hKHAPl92ONYahwC4SVRhK45jivyUcgg?key=7EbrmKQzVODYrpHPXbYHAw" alt=""/></figure>



Even anecdotal signals matter. I am noticing more friends asking how to get started in crypto, which always catches my attention. While retail adoption is positive for the long term, sudden FOMO-driven spikes in these indicators often reflect emotional, late-stage buying from people chasing quick gains.



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0xResearch Newsletter

Same game, new players — but retail’s now smarter

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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We saw a bit of a rally yesterday as folks digested the posts from Trump, who said that we could see SOL, XRP, and ADA —&nbsp;combined with bitcoin and ethereum (and perhaps other, unnamed tokens) — in a strategic reserve.&nbsp;



For Pantera’s Paul Veradittakit, the move helps to further crypto’s “credibility” and reinforces the “store of value” narrative —&nbsp;though it left some folks on the CT timeline a bit concerned about the additions of XRP, ADA and SOL.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">If you&#39;re in crypto and cheering this, I don&#39;t know what to tell you. There&#39;s just no way that legitimizing two of the largest grift and scams in the existence of the industry is a good thing. Can blame it on the admin being ignorant, misinformed or bought, but this ain&#39;t it. <a href="https://t.co/2ujRHwABmK">pic.twitter.com/2ujRHwABmK</a>&mdash; Quinn Thompson (@qthomp) <a href="https://twitter.com/qthomp/status/1896262133916315864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 2, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Before we argue if this is bad or good for crypto, the truth is that not a whole lot has changed. Veradittakit added that he thinks this could lead to a “significant increase” in the likelihood of an altcoin season.



We still need regulatory clarity. And we probably need to hear more about the plans at the reserve — something we can hopefully get later this week at the White House’s crypto summit.



As for why we haven’t already seen an altseason? Well, Empire co-host Jason Yanowitz has a <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/9d0b954e-f631-11ef-9a9d-f39e71cf4f29">few ideas of what’s going on.&nbsp;</a>



Folks became aware of a game underfoot and some went straight to the memes to get away from not only trying to predict the cycle but also to escape the “venture games” of tokens with low float and high FDV.&nbsp;



But Reflexive Capital’s David Kalk thinks that people also remember the scars of last cycle, which means that they’re unlikely to go back to some of the names. This could lead to a different market structure. Kalk thinks that potential regulatory clarity and the belief in the utility of some of these tokens could be a gamechanger for folks.



At the end of the day, retail is “somewhat playing defense,” Kalk said.&nbsp;



VanEck’s Pranav Kanade agreed with Kalk, saying that he thinks that the “gambling” retail is back, not the “investing retail.”



And perhaps that’s leading us to a spot where we have “microcycles,” Kanade noted.



If the retail crowd that’s interested in memecoins exhausts itself, then perhaps that opens the door for a different set of folks who are looking for projects to support. Or, maybe we’ll see more institutions at play outside of bitcoin and ether.



Either way, it doesn’t seem like we’re quite ready for an altszn…yet.



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altcoins

Retail’s ‘playing defense’ right now: Reflexive Capital 

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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The crypto predictions are pouring in for next year, and — if I’m being honest with you — it’s hard to contain the excitement. Or maybe it’s just Friday.



Anyway, this morning I’m specifically looking at Bitwise’s predictions, which were released earlier this week. The <a href="https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-year-ahead-10-crypto-predictions-for-2025">whole report </a>is worth a read, but for now I’m focused on their forecast that says 2025 will be the year of the crypto IPO.



It’s definitely hard to argue with that particular call. On paper, all of the pieces are falling into place.



Here are the three things I think support a big year for crypto IPOs:



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<li>A regulator actually engaging with firms and moving their paperwork forward. </li>



<li>Institutional interest and support. </li>



<li>Investor appetite. </li>
</ul>



Three simple bullet points, right? Well, not really. For crypto, actually securing green lights to go public demands the perfect storm post-FTX. If you don’t believe me, let’s take a look at Circle.&nbsp;



The stablecoin issuer filed a confidential draft of its registration statement with the SEC back in January of this year and yet we’ve seen no movement on its IPO.



After years of covering IPOs in my past life, companies who’ve filed their drafts generally publicly file their S-1 in six to eight months, or at least have some sort of movement on that front. Obviously, however, this isn’t always the case.



We don’t know what’s happened behind closed doors but I’m still eagerly awaiting Circle’s next filing. And I fully agree with Bitwise that Circle looks like a crypto firm with the most potential to hit the public stage.&nbsp;



Outside of Circle, Bitwise rounded out its list with Figure, Kraken, Anchorage and Chainalysis.&nbsp;



Adding to that, we already have two companies seeking uplisting on US exchanges (Sol Strategies is <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/sol-strategies-applies-listing-nasdaq-exchange-2024-12-05">looking to uplist</a> on Nasdaq while Exodus is <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/12/13/2996721/0/en/Exodus-Movement-Inc-Announces-Uplist-to-NYSE-American-Exchange.html">uplisting to NYSE American</a>) and one company going public <a href="https://www.monexgroup.jp/en/news_release/irnews/auto_20241210536638/main/0/link/press2024_12_11_E_CNCK_v4.1%20-%20clean.pdf">through a de-SPAC</a> and, bam, it looks like this prediction should’ve been a Polymarket market.&nbsp;



If more of crypto starts going public, it could be a positive for the return of retail. A larger roster of public crypto companies not only lets folks engage with the space without fully diving in — a bonus for a more general audience — but it also builds back much-needed trust.&nbsp;



Not to mention, investors would finally be able to look at certain metrics that hadn’t previously been disclosed through documents filed with the SEC.&nbsp;



And don’t even get me started on the capital they could unlock.



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Empire Newsletter

How crypto IPOs could bring back retail

Sebastian Sinclair

Despite recent market volatility, a new survey by blockchain infrastructure and tokenization platform, Paxos, found three-quarters of retail consumers remain confident in crypto’s future.



Results indicate there remains a significant level of interest and appetite for greater integration of crypto into consumers&#8217; everyday financial lives, despite the series of high-profile collapses that rocked the industry last year.



The <a href="https://paxos.com/2023/03/07/paxos-finds-consumer-confidence-in-digital-assets-remains-strong/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">survey</a>, conducted in early 2023 across 5,000 respondents, showed 72% reported having little to no concern about the recent fluctuations in the crypto market.



The majority (57%) of respondents who had heard about and followed the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bankruptcy">bankruptcies</a> of FTX and Alameda Research indicated they plan to buy more crypto or do nothing as a result of the news.



The introduction of new legislation concerning digital asset custody arrangements and the operation of digital exchanges is likely to follow within the next 18 months.&nbsp;



For now, retail consumers appear to remain unfazed.



Should regulatory pressures ramp up in the US, the industry would simply pivot to Asia and the Middle East, Markus Thielen, Matrixport&#8217;s head of research, told Blockworks.



“Crypto has always played into the hands of human behavior which is defined by technological progress, financial innovation and greed,” he said.



The survey also found consumer trust in intermediaries for crypto custody remains high, with 89% of respondents stating they continue to trust banks, crypto exchanges and/or mobile payment apps to hold their assets.



Mainstream interest in crypto presents a significant opportunity for banks and traditional financial institutions to diversify their product offerings and tap into new sources of revenue stream, Paxos said.



Three-quarters of respondents indicated they would be likely or very likely to purchase crypto from their primary bank if it were offered, representing a 12% increase over 2022.&nbsp;



Older consumers are more likely to buy crypto from their primary bank, with 81% of respondents aged 35-55+ having a high probability of doing so. By comparison, roughly 63% of respondents aged 18-34 said they were very likely or likely.



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Survey Finds Retail Still Bullish on Crypto Post-FTX

Shalini Nagarajan

More female retail investors have reported holding digital assets, even as trading volumes slumped and prices remained depressed amid the crypto winter. 



Investing platform eToro released a survey Monday that indicated the total portion of retail investors holding crypto in 2022&#8217;s fourth quarter rose to 39% from 36% in the previous period.



The report surveyed 10,000 retail investors throughout mid-December across 13 countries, including the UK, US, Germany, Netherlands, Norway and Romania. 



34% of responding female retail investors reported owning crypto, up from 29% in Q3 2022. Growth in the percentage of men holding crypto was slower.



“Crypto is now the second most widely owned asset class for women after cash, suggesting it is succeeding where traditional financial markets have sometimes failed in bringing more women to the table,” eToro global markets strategist Ben Laidler said.



Older investors also saw an opportunity to buy the dip, the study noted. Cryptoasset holders between the ages of 35 and 54 both rose by five percentage points in the fourth quarter.



“Retail investors were defined as self-directed or advised and had to hold at least one investment product including shares, bonds, funds, investment ISAs or equivalent. They did not need to be eToro users,” the firm <a href="https://www.etoro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ETORO-RIB-JANUARY.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>.



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2022 was a tough year for investors. The global economy was caught in steep challenges including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and inflation remained a drag on the cost-of-living crisis.



Retail investors overall chose to move to defensive allocations and raised their cash allocations. In terms of stocks, they seem to hold a long-term investment horizon for technology and the commodities sectors.



Laidler further wrote on <a href="https://twitter.com/laidler_ben/status/1617425355610157060" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Twitter</a> that the survey showed the resilience of retail investors, “with confidence starting to rebound as inflation falls, and looking to boost tech and crypto.”



The survey separately showed a majority of young investors are approaching the market with a positive view, with 23% indicating an increase in investing appetite. Meanwhile, only 6% of the late 50s cohort expressed similar interest.



“They [young investors] are naturally more risk tolerant and have longer to retirement. But also facing their first prolonged equity bear market,” Laidler said.



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Crypto

Crypto Trumps Stocks for Female Retail Investors: Survey

Macauley Peterson

<div id="highlights-block_634e8fd01d8e0" class="highlights">
 <ul>
 <li>Crypto is in the middle of technological disruption, Walmart’s CTO said</li>
 <li>Walmart previously filed trademark and patent applications to monetize the metaverse</li>
 </ul>
 
</div>



The chief technology officer of the world’s largest retailer thinks crypto lies abreast three areas of technological disruption: product discovery, payment and delivery.



In comments to the Yahoo Finance All Markets Summit on Oct. 17, Walmart CTO Suresh Kumar said that Walmart is keenly aware of the technological trends in the retail sector, and the potential ways in which Web3 may impact how customers shop in the future.&nbsp;



“I have talked before about the way in which customers are getting inspired and discovering products — that is changing — and part of that is going to happen in the Metaverse,” Kumar said.



The retail giant is also planning to adapt to customer demands for new payment rails, Kumar said. 



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">“I think a lot of the disruption is going to start happening in terms of different payment methods, different payment options…crypto is going to continue to play a very important role in that,” Kumar said.</blockquote>



“Crypto will become an important part of how customers transact. We want to make sure that we make it as friction free for customers to be able to transact, and to be able to buy, and how they are able to derive value out of it,” he said.



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Other Walmart connections to crypto</h3>



Walmart previously added members to its board of directors who also have crypto industry links. 



The company’s lead independent director, Tom Horton, who also serves on the board of Blockchain.com, <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/walmart-board-director-cryptos-potential-goes-beyond-financial-services/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">told Blockworks in February</a>, “I see blockchain technologies as another great enabler, much like the internet was in its early days.”



Sarah Friar joined Walmart’s board <a href="https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2018/02/08/walmart-board-of-directors-adds-square-inc-cfo-sarah-friar" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">in February 2018</a> and earlier this year <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/the-latest-in-crypto-hiring-ex-finra-ny-fed-bank-leaders-switch-sectors/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">became a board member</a> of industry powerhouse ConsenSys, where she advises the company on Web3 business models. She is also a former chief financial officer of Square, prior to <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/tag/square/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">its blockchain-focused rebranding as Block</a>.



Walmart is currently pursuing non-blockchain metaverse-like experiences <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/web3-watch-disney-and-walmart-target-young-audiences-in-the-metaverse/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">with Roblox</a>. The company <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/walmart-files-7-us-patents-examining-potential-monetization-of-nfts-metaverse/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">filed 7 patents at the end of 2021</a> related to NFTs and the metaverse.



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