Shaunda Devens

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Strategy has stepped back in as a visible treasury bid for BTC, but with a very different financing backdrop compared to 2024-2025



At the end of December, Strategy raised cash but barely deployed it into BTC. On Dec. 29-31, it sold 1,255,911 MSTR shares for $195.9 million net proceeds, yet bought only 3 BTC. In early January, deployment resumed: Jan. 1-4 saw another 735,000 shares sold for $116.3 million net, and 1,283 BTC bought for $116 million (avg $90,391/BTC), bringing holdings to 673,783 BTC.



The bigger signal sits in the financing backdrop. In 2024 through early 2025, Strategy funded itself cheaply via convertible debt (cash coupons 0.625% to 2.25%, then multiple 0% converts). That playbook works best when MSTR trades at a premium to Bitcoin NAV (mNAV &gt; 1) because of the equity optionality.&nbsp;



However, by mid-to-late 2025, that premium compressed and flipped to a discount (mNAV &lt; 1), making equity-linked financing harder to place and common issuance mechanically dilutive to BTC-per-share. As a result, the financing shifted toward high-cash-cost preferred, often issued below par, printing roughly 10% to 12.5% effective cash cost on proceeds. STRC&#8217;s dividend rate has been stepped up from 9% (August 2025) to 11.0% (January 2026) to keep the channel open.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110777" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Interestingly, Strategy is still funding buys by issuing common via the ATM even at an mNAV discount, accepting short-term dilution to keep accumulating and maintain liquidity. When mNAV is below 1 and marginal funding costs are double-digit, scaling purchases becomes both more dilutive and more expensive. That makes Strategy a less-reliable, less-price-setting buyer compared to prior premium regimes. It will still matter as a sentiment marker, but unless the premium reopens, its flow is more likely to be episodic clips than a sustained engine for the tape.



Zooming out, 2025&#8217;s marginal bid was essentially a two-horse race: spot ETFs and Strategy. On the accumulation chart, Strategy&#8217;s cumulative purchases tracked in the same range as ETFs for much of the year, meaning Strategy was comparable in flow impact to the ETF complex at points.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110776" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-30.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The setup for 2026 looks materially weaker. With mNAV compressed and financing shifting toward double-digit preferred costs plus dilutive ATM common issuance, Strategy&#8217;s bid becomes harder to scale without worsening BTC-per-share dilution. Strategy is still a sentiment marker, but the buying pressure should be more muted and episodic, leaving ETF flows and broader crypto risk appetite as the more reliable price-setting forces.



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0xResearch Newsletter

The Strategy playbook looks different in 2026

Carlos

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Ranger’s ICO begins today and will run through Jan. 10. For context, Ranger is a full-stack trading terminal with three core products.&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>First is Ranger Perps, a perps aggregator for Solana-based venues like Jupiter Perps, Drift, and Flash Trade, with Hyperliquid support in the works. </li>



<li>Second is Ranger Spot, a meta-aggregator that routes across other aggregators like Jupiter and DFlow for optimal price execution. </li>



<li>The third pillar is Ranger Earn, a newer product that offers curated access to institutional-grade yield strategies through Ranger’s vault infrastructure.</li>
</ul>



Ranger is seeking a minimum raise of $6 million and is selling 39% of the total RNGR supply in the ICO. Proceeds from the raise will be held in a token holder-governed treasury, with the team receiving a fixed monthly stipend of $250,000. The Ranger ICO marks an important milestone for MetaDAO: It’s the first token sale on the platform to include a project with existing pre-ICO investors. The table below shows RNGR’s supply distribution.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-26.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110768" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-26.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-26.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-26.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-26.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-26.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-26.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-26.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-26.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-26.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



ICO participants who receive an allocation will be 100% liquid at TGE (no vesting), while pre-ICO investors will follow a 24-month linear unlock schedule with no cliff. Notably, the team allocation will be tied to price performance: Up to 7.6M RNGR (30% of total supply) becomes unlockable for the team via five milestone tranches triggered at 2x / 4x / 8x / 16x / 32x of the ICO price. Each milestone must be maintained via a three-month TWAP, and there is a minimum 18-month cliff before any team tokens can unlock.



The chart below shows RNGR’s unlock schedule. The team performance pool is an estimate based on the parameters above, but realized unlocks will ultimately depend on RNGR’s sustained price performance post-ICO.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110770" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The last six MetaDAO ICOs have been heavily oversubscribed, with allocations settled pro rata. This allocation mechanism favors whales, who can afford to overcommit capital to secure a meaningful allocation. As the chart below shows, across the past six MetaDAO ICOs, participants have received an average of ~5% of their desired exposure.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110769" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Ranger will guarantee point holders access to the ICO via a dedicated allocation bucket, directly addressing the oversubscription dynamic above. I’m constructive on this structure: It rewards early users and contributors through preferential access rather than giving away 10-30% of supply via an airdrop, which can introduce unnecessary sell pressure and weaker alignment. In this regard, any allocation not taken by point holders will roll over and be pro-rated to public ICO buyers.



While the Ranger ICO is compelling on its own (and likely worth participating in, particularly for points holders), the bigger story, in my view, is what it means for MetaDAO: a catalyst that could reaccelerate launch cadence and revenue to start the year.



MetaDAO monetizes ICOs through swap fees on its Futarchy AMM and its LP position on Meteora. The Futarchy AMM charges a 0.5% fee on volume, which was originally split evenly between MetaDAO and the project raising (e.g., 0.25% to MetaDAO, 0.25% to Ranger). On Dec. 28, after mutual agreement with teams, the split was retroactively adjusted so that the full 0.5% now accrues to MetaDAO.



Since the Futarchy AMM went live on Oct. 10, 2025, MetaDAO has generated about $2.4 million in revenue, with roughly 60% coming from the Futarchy AMM and 40% from its Meteora LP position.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-23.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110765" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-23.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-23.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-23.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-23.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-23.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-23.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-23.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-23.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-23.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



That said, MetaDAO’s revenues have declined sharply since mid-December as ICO activity slowed. Today, MetaDAO’s ICOs remain curated, placing far more weight on founder quality, credibility and long-term alignment than on simply maximizing the number of launches. This approach was necessary to validate the product, but it has come with a clear tradeoff: Without a steady stream of new launches, it’s difficult for revenues to increase, and MetaDAO has fallen short on cadence over the past few weeks.



The chart below highlights why. Token volumes tend to be highest around TGE and the days immediately following, meaning sustained Futarchy AMM volumes, and by extension, revenues, are highly dependent on new launches coming through the pipeline.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-24.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110766" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-24.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-24.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-24.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-24.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-24.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-24.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-24.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-24.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-24.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Despite declining daily revenue, META has performed remarkably well, rallying roughly 40% over the past week. As a result, META’s 30-day trailing P/S has increased to ~36x, well above its prior two-month range of ~10-15x.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110771" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Markets are forward-looking, though, and I expect META’s P/S to compress back toward its historical range over the coming weeks and months as revenue reaccelerates (i.e., not through a price decline, but through higher trailing revenues).&nbsp;



The near-term catalysts are twofold. First is Ranger’s ICO, which will likely be oversubscribed and lead to a spike in Futarchy AMM volumes post-TGE. Second is the <a href="https://v1.metadao.fi/metadao/trade-v5/Bzoap95gjbokTaiEqwknccktfNSvkPe4ZbAdcJF1yiEK">Omnibus proposal</a>, which passed last night and will&nbsp;



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>migrate roughly ~90% of META liquidity from Meteora DAMM v1 into the Futarchy AMM and </li>



<li>burn roughly ~60,000 META (about $550,000 at current prices). Capturing trading volumes from RNGR and META should increase Futarchy AMM revenue in the near term. </li>
</ol>



Beyond the next few days and into the coming months, I expect MetaDAO’s revenues to trend higher as launch cadence accelerates by an order of magnitude. Two catalysts stand out: permissionless launches and Colosseum’s STAMP.



MetaDAO has debated in public comms whether to preserve a fully curated (permissioned) model or experiment with permissionless launches. The latter, despite the risk of lower-quality projects, is a necessary experiment to increase throughput and validate the platform’s scalability, and is probably the direction the team will ultimately pursue.



Finally, I think the market is underpricing what Colosseum’s STAMP could mean for MetaDAO. Colosseum sits upstream of Solana’s startup funnel, spanning hackathons, an accelerator and a venture fund. Many of the ecosystem’s top teams trace their roots back to hackathons (e.g., Jito, Kamino, Drift, Exponent, Hylo). STAMP effectively plugs MetaDAO into that deal flow, creating a steadier pipeline of high-quality launches to complement permissionless ICOs and normalize launch cadence over time.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-25.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110767" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-25.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-25.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-25.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-25.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-25.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-25.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-25.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-25.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-25.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



In conclusion, Ranger and the Omnibus proposal may help reaccelerate revenues in the near term, but permissionless launches and STAMP are what could ultimately drive a tenfold increase in MetaDAO’s ICO cadence (and, by extension, volumes and revenue) over the coming months.



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Ranger’s ICO starts today, and MetaDAO eyes a reset

Marc Arjoon

Kunal Doshi

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Markets opened the year with subtle but important shifts. BTC outperformed both equities and gold, higher beta crypto narratives reawakened, and derivatives positioning pointed to a careful rebuild of risk rather than excess. In today’s note, we break down index performance, what ETH derivatives are signaling under the surface, and the growing case for equity perps as a retail driven product nearing an inflection point.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices </h2>



BTC quietly stole the show this week, benefiting from a rare but timely negative correlation to both equities and gold. Traditional markets softened, with the Nasdaq 100 (-1.7%) and S&amp;P 500 (-1.1%) drifting lower while gold sold off sharply (-3%), BTC (+3.7%) ground higher. It was a steady, low-drama move that stood out precisely because of how long it’s been since crypto outperformed across both risk and defensive assets in the same window. The week felt less like speculative exuberance and more like BTC reminding the market of its role as a portfolio diversifier, a dynamic largely absent through much of the past year when correlations repeatedly snapped back toward one. Whether that decoupling persists will likely hinge on macro follow-through, but for now, BTC’s ability to outperform both stocks and gold marks a notable shift in tape behavior worth watching.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-20.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110750" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-20.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-20.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-20.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-20.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-20.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-20.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-20.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-20.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-20.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Last week’s winners were concentrated almost entirely in the higher-beta, most narrative-driven corners of crypto, signaling a shift toward speculative positioning. Launchpad tokens (+27.8%) led by a wide margin, benefiting from renewed retail participation and a resurgence in short-duration token launches as traders chased velocity over fundamentals. Modular (+21.0%) and AI (+19.4%) followed closely, while DePIN (+18.9%) and the Solana ecosystem (+16.1%) also stood out.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-21.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110751" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-21.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-21.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-21.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-21.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-21.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-21.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-21.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-21.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-21.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Within our Launchpad index, leadership once again belonged to MetaDAO, which extended its run of relative outperformance and reinforced its status as the bellwether for the sector. META’s sharp gains this week reflected renewed interest in token issuance infrastructure, as traders gravitated toward platforms most levered to new launches and velocity-driven flows.&nbsp;



What stood out just as much was the breadth: Nearly every constituent in the index finished higher on the week, underscoring how synchronized the move was across the complex. The lone exception was Launchcoin, which lagged while the rest of the cohort participated in the upside. That kind of near-universal participation is typically a sign of sector-level positioning rather than idiosyncratic token news. Looking ahead, the setup remains compelling, with regulatory frameworks expected to crystallize in 2026 and compliant launch infrastructure likely to move from a speculative niche to a structural pillar of the crypto stack, making Launchpads an area investors will be increasingly forced to pay attention to rather than trade opportunistically.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="850" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-22.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110752" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-22.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-22.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-22.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-22.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-22.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-22.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-22.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-22.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-22.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update&nbsp;</h2>



ETH derivatives markets in December 2025 were defined by a clear divergence between participation and positioning. Perpetual futures volumes continued to cool, with aggregate ETH perps volume falling roughly 31% month over month, extending November’s decline and reflecting fading speculative intensity amid consolidation and compressed volatility. Activity fell broadly across major venues, signaling reduced appetite for short-term directional trading, particularly during thinner holiday liquidity.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.jpeg?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110748" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.jpeg?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.jpeg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.jpeg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.jpeg?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.jpeg?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Despite this pullback in turnover, open interest rebounded sharply. Average ETH open interest rose approximately 63% over the month, reversing November’s contraction and climbing steadily as price action stabilized. The combination of falling volumes and rising OI suggest that exposure was rebuilt quietly and deliberately, pointing to longer-horizon or relative-value positioning rather than aggressive leverage-chasing.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.jpeg?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110749" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.jpeg?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.jpeg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.jpeg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.jpeg?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.jpeg?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



This measured rebuild in positioning was reinforced by a continued decline in liquidation activity. ETH liquidations remained subdued throughout December, with weekly liquidation volumes down 56% from November and well below October’s forced deleveraging extremes. Both sides of the market stayed relatively contained as prices consolidated, with short liquidations still modestly exceeding longs but at significantly lower absolute levels. The absence of large liquidation cascades alongside rising open interest underscores a healthier leverage profile, where positions were added gradually and risk was managed more tightly.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.jpeg?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110746" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.jpeg?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.jpeg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.jpeg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.jpeg?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.jpeg?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Taken together, declining volumes, rising open interest and falling liquidations characterize December as a period of risk reduction and positioning reset, rather than a return to speculative excess.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The bull case for equity perps</h2>



Equity perpetuals are often framed as a crypto-native attempt to bring traditional markets onchain. In reality, their real competition is not options but leveraged ETFs, a product class that already has massive retail adoption. The appeal is simple. Retail investors increasingly want leverage in a clean and intuitive wrapper.



JPMorgan <a href="https://www.jpmorganchase.com/institute/all-topics/financial-health-wealth-creation/a-decade-in-the-market-how-retail-investing-behavior-has-shifted-since-2015#section3">estimates</a> retail equity flows in 2025 are over 50% higher than 2024 and above the meme stock peak of 2021. Leveraged ETFs have absorbed much of this appetite, with AUM <a href="https://x.com/Kunallegendd/status/2008082680085381274?s=20">growing</a> from $41.6 billion in 2020 to $250 billion by late 2025, and monthly trading volumes exceeding $800 billion.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="989" height="609" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-18.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110745" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-18.png?w=989 989w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-18.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-18.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-18.png?w=417 417w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-18.png?w=424 424w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-18.png?w=356 356w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-18.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 989px) 100vw, 989px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Bloomberg</figcaption></figure>







But leveraged ETFs are flawed: They rely on derivatives to reset exposure daily, which introduces volatility drag. Even when the underlying index goes nowhere, leveraged ETFs can lose value over time. These products are designed for short-term trading but are widely misunderstood and held longer than intended.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="853" height="238" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-16.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110743" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-16.png?w=853 853w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-16.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-16.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-16.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-16.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-16.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-16.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 853px) 100vw, 853px" /></figure>



Equity perps fix this. They provide constant notional exposure without daily resets, meaning leverage does not decay mechanically. Volatility does not compound against the trader in the same way. For anyone seeking leveraged directional exposure, equity perps are simply a cleaner instrument.



Early traction supports this view. Since mid-October, equity perp volume on Hyperliquid has reached roughly $12.9 billion, with daily volumes commonly found between $200 million and $300 million. Hyperliquid currently dominates market share, followed by Lighter.&nbsp;



Accessibility matters here. It’s no coincidence that equity perp volume has emerged on the same onchain venues that dominate crypto perps.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1196" height="562" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-19.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110747" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-19.png?w=1196 1196w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-19.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-19.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-19.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-19.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-19.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-19.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-19.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1196px) 100vw, 1196px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Hyperzap</figcaption></figure>







But there are frictions. When equity markets are closed, market makers cannot hedge, liquidity thins, and funding rates can spike. Platforms manage this differently through restricted trading hours or internal oracle adjustments. These issues explain why adoption has grown steadily rather than explosively.



The long-term winners will not be determined by venue design but by distribution. Just as centralized exchanges dominate crypto perps, equity perps will likely scale through platforms with massive retail reach. Robinhood and Coinbase are best positioned.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="928" height="536" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-17.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110744" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-17.png?w=928 928w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-17.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-17.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-17.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-17.png?w=452 452w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-17.png?w=379 379w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-17.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 928px) 100vw, 928px" /></figure>



Source: The BlockBoth have already taken <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/en-sg/blog/system-update-the-future-of-finance-is-on-coinbase">steps</a> toward tokenized equities, and a compliant version of equity perps could emerge as early as 2026. The opportunity is large; leveraged ETFs currently trade between $800 billion and $900 billion per month. Capturing even 5% of those flows would increase trading volumes by <a href="https://investors.robinhood.com/static-files/5e1919af-821f-4655-b088-ed732c3c9353">an estimated</a> 17% for Robinhood <a href="https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/spot/cryptocurrency-exchange-volume-monthly">and nearly</a> 70% for Coinbase. Ultimately, equity perps are not a crypto experiment. They are a retail product waiting for the right distribution channel.



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ETH derivatives reset and the next retail trade

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It was a mixed week for crypto, with BTC ending higher but sharp divergence across sectors. DePIN and Gaming led a surprising rebound after a rough year, while L2s, RWAs and the treasury trade continued to grind lower as flows stayed choppy. 



To add some insight to the new year, we’ve rounded up some weekend reads on stablecoin yield, payments infrastructure, interoperability and last year’s fastest-moving narratives.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h1>



With a shortened equity trading week due to the holidays, the focus shifts to crypto performance over the past week. BTC finished the week up 1.6%, though performance across altcoins remains highly fragmented.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1177" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110723" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=1177 1177w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1177px) 100vw, 1177px" /></figure>



The biggest movers may come as a surprise. DePIN and Gaming led all sectors with gains of 13.1% and 12.6%, respectively. These have been two of the weakest performers in 2025, down -79.5% and -81.3% on the year, making the rebound notable.



DePIN strength was driven by FIL and RENDER, which rose 22% and 13% on the week and together account for 49% of the index. Gaming followed a similar pattern, with IMX up 11%, doing most of the heavy lifting for the sector.



On the downside, L2s and RWAs lagged, falling -2.67% and -0.84% over the week. L2 weakness was led by MNT and ZORA, down -5.7% and -6.4%. At the same time, other L2 names such as OP, ARB, and ZK posted gains between 10% and 20%, highlighting sharp divergence within the sector. RWAs were pressured by a pullback in Gold after its strong run this year, with PAXG and XAUT both down around -3.4%.



Flows remain choppy. On Dec. 31, ETFs saw $417.8 million of outflows, nearly offsetting the $428.2 million of inflows recorded the day prior.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="951" height="366" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110718" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=951 951w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 951px) 100vw, 951px" /></figure>



Digital asset treasuries continue to feel the strain, with mNAV multiples compressing further. MSTR and BMNR now trade at mNAV levels of 0.69 and 0.85, underscoring the pressure on the treasury trade as the new year begins.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110721" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Recommended end-of-year analyses</h2>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/neutrl-unlocking-institutional-otc-yield-for-stablecoins">Neutrl: Unlocking Institutional OTC Yield for Stablecoins</a></h4>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1409" height="781" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110724" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=1409 1409w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1409px) 100vw, 1409px" /></figure>



<a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/neutrl-unlocking-institutional-otc-yield-for-stablecoins">Blockworks Research finds</a> that Neutrl brings institutional-grade OTC arbitrage into a stablecoin wrapper, offering market neutral yields that are less reliant on funding cycles than existing synthetic dollars. Early traction and double-digit sNUSD yields suggest strong demand, supported by deep token unlock pipelines and privileged OTC access via STIX. The core upside rests on scalable deployment into hedged OTC deals, while risks center on execution, counterparty performance and liquidity management. If yields hold as TVL grows, Neutrl could mirror early Ethena dynamics in a more structurally defensive form. 



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://polaris.fund/articles/crypto-card-moats">Crypto Card Moats</a></h4>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="866" height="468" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110722" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=866 866w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 866px) 100vw, 866px" /></figure>



<a href="https://polaris.fund/articles/crypto-card-moats">Polaris Fund finds</a> that crypto cards and neobanks have reached a real inflection point where value is shifting away from rewards and branding toward infrastructure, compliance and liquidity control. The analysis shows that durable moats come from owning primitives like regulated access, programmable liquidity and deep integrations, not cashbacks. Infra rail providers and DeFi native card models capture the most leverage through recurring fees and aligned economics, while CeFi distributors face margin compression. As regulation tightens, scale will increasingly favor players that control licensing, settlement and compliance workflows rather than consumer-facing incentives.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://layerzero.network/blog/25-stats-explaining-how-crypto-accelerated-in-2025">25 Stats Explaining How LayerZero Accelerated Crypto in 2025</a></h4>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="695" height="383" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110720" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=695 695w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 695px) 100vw, 695px" /></figure>



<a href="https://layerzero.network/blog/25-stats-explaining-how-crypto-accelerated-in-2025">LayerZero finds</a> that 2025 marked the shift of interoperability from a theory into core infrastructure for crypto. Data shows tokenized assets and stablecoins increasingly distributed across many chains, with interoperability accelerating asset velocity, capital mobility and global access. Rather than chains competing in isolation, crypto now functions as a connected network where value moves freely to where demand exists. Adoption of message-based transfers and open primitives reduced costs and friction, making cross-chain activity feel more like software than finance. Interoperability is no longer the bottleneck, but the default layer enabling scale.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://reports.tiger-research.com/p/2025-recap-eng?triedRedirect=true">2025: The Year Narratives Moved Too Fast</a></h4>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="595" height="508" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110719" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=595 595w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=301 301w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=306 306w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=257 257w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 595px) 100vw, 595px" /></figure>



<a href="https://reports.tiger-research.com/p/2025-recap-eng?triedRedirect=true">Tiger Research finds</a> that 2025 was defined by rapid narrative cycles that generated attention faster than they could be validated, leading to widespread fatigue and skepticism. Most narratives faded quickly, but a subset translated into real use cases that pushed the market forward, particularly where retail access was simple and intuitive. Memecoins showed how quickly users can onboard, but also how fragile engagement is without retention. Experiments like InfoFi highlighted incentive-driven growth but exposed quality and trust issues. The clearest progress came where crypto demonstrated product-market fit, including stablecoins, prediction markets and payment rails, showing that durable value emerges only when narratives align with real utility.



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DePIN and crypto gaming led a surprising end-of-year rebound

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As we step into the new year, <a href="https://x.com/0xNairolf/status/2003775659571925224?s=20">mindshare</a> across crypto has rotated meaningfully. Prediction markets, stablecoins and RWAs have emerged as the clear winners, while AI, modularity and memecoins have fallen out of favor. One protocol that stood out this week touches two of the three leading narratives and has quietly been putting up impressive metrics: the Canton Network.



Canton is a blockchain built specifically for financial institutions, designed to enable secure, interoperable and privacy preserving transactions. Its token became transferable on Nov. 10 and, after an initial drawdown of more than 50%, it has fully recovered. It’s now up 47.6% over the past month.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1544" height="815" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-185.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110673" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-185.png?w=1544 1544w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-185.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-185.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-185.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-185.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-185.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-185.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-185.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-185.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1544px) 100vw, 1544px" /></figure>



The scale of RWA activity on the network is already notable. As of <a href="https://x.com/CantonNetwork/status/2003073143108465130?s=20">Q4 2025</a>, Canton has processed $6 trillion in real-world assets and currently handles about $350 billion per day in US treasury activity. Much of this traction comes from institutional partners like <a href="https://www.broadridge.com/about/">Broadridge Financial Solutions</a>, a global fintech leader in trading and settlement infrastructure. Broadridge’s Distributed Ledger Repo platform runs on Canton and processes more than <a href="https://www.canton.network/ecosystem/broadridge-dlr">$8 trillion per month</a> in repo transactions, using blockchain rails to improve efficiency in one of the largest markets in global finance.



Momentum has continued to build through deeper integrations. A <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nasdaq-and-qcp-set-new-standard-capital-efficiency-connecting-canton-network-nasdaq-0">partnership</a> with Nasdaq connects Canton to Nasdaq Calypso, enabling automated margin and collateral management and allowing institutions to move and reuse capital more efficiently across traditional and digital assets. More recently, DTCC, the central clearing and settlement backbone of US financial markets, <a href="https://www.dtcc.com/news/2025/december/17/dtcc-and-digital-asset-partner-to-tokenize-dtc-custodied-us-treasury-securities">selected</a> Canton to support RWA tokenization. The initial rollout will allow a subset of US treasurys held at DTCC’s depository to be issued on Canton following SEC approval. Given that DTCC clears roughly <a href="https://www.dtcc.com/dtcc-connection/articles/2024/april/09/dtcc-delivering-for-the-industry">$10 trillion</a> of securities transactions every day, the ability to move settlement from T+2 to near real-time could meaningfully improve efficiency and free up capital within existing market infrastructure.



The network usage is closely tied to the token. Canton’s Global Synchronizer coordinates cross-institution transactions, with predictable fees paid in CC that are burned as network activity increases. Over the past 20 days, the network has burned a median of 6.71 million tokens daily, equating to about $627,000 per day, with peaks between $750,000 and $850,000. For context, Solana averaged roughly <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/solana">$670,700</a> in REV daily over the last seven days, yet trades at a FDV about 16x higher than Canton.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-188.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110676" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-188.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-188.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-188.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-188.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-188.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-188.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-188.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-188.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-188.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Usage metrics complete the picture. Since November, Canton has averaged around 28,500 daily active users and 678,300 daily transactions, putting it <a href="https://app.nansen.ai/macro/blockchains">in line</a> with networks like Monad on DAUs and Ton on transaction count.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="1148" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-186.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110674" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-186.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-186.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-186.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-186.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-186.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-186.png?w=358 358w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-186.png?w=364 364w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-186.png?w=305 305w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-186.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



There is still much more to unpack around architecture, validators and long-term token design, but the early signals are hard to ignore. With exposure to narratives such as tokenization, stablecoins and privacy, Canton is shaping up as one of the more interesting protocols to watch as we head into 2026.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Lighter’s TGE</h2>



Lighter airdropped and launched LIT on Dec. 30, closing out a timeline that traders had been stress-testing via a Polymarket contract that effectively functioned as a TGE proxy. Odds briefly slipped to ~60% intraday before the launch went through. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/4dcc8b99-cee4-44c7-b0e6-e0523d2378e4" width="624" height="351">



LIT&#8217;s max supply is 1 billion with 250 million circulating at TGE, a 25% day-one float. The airdrop was funded by Seasons 1 and 2 points, with 12.5 million points converted into LIT, implying roughly ~20 LIT per point on the headline math. Allocation splits are 50% ecosystem (25% now, 25% later), 26% team, and 24% investors. Team and investors sit behind a one-year cliff followed by three-year linear vesting. Against that backdrop, premarket points pricing has repriced sharply post-TGE, with points buyers down around 50% from peak levels that implied roughly $100 per point at the top.



The more interesting debate is not the airdrop, but token holder protection. Lighter is leaning directly into the token equity mismatch critique, arguing that revenues from the core DEX and future products can be tracked onchain in real time and allocated between growth and buybacks depending on conditions. It goes further by claiming the value created by all products and services will fully accrue to LIT holders, with the token issued directly from its US C-Corp, which will operate the protocol &#8220;at cost.&#8221; Directionally, that is a stronger posture than the common separate labs capture profits model, but it is not a hard guarantee: &#8220;At cost&#8221; is elastic (e.g. Uniswap Foundation employee salaries).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1184" height="1114" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-187.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110675" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-187.png?w=1184 1184w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-187.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-187.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-187.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-187.png?w=273 273w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-187.png?w=277 277w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-187.png?w=233 233w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-187.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1184px) 100vw, 1184px" /></figure>



On comps, the market is valuing Lighter similarly to Hyperliquid. At $2.7 billion FDV and $700 million circulating, Lighter&#8217;s float is ~25.9%, nearly identical to Hyperliquid&#8217;s ~25.4% ($24 billion FDV and $6.1 billion circulating). More importantly, Lighter is trading on a fees multiple that is already in Hyperliquid&#8217;s range: 26.6x FDV/annualized fees (and 6.9x circulating/annualized fees) vs. Hyperliquid at 29.9x (and 7.6x). That&#8217;s despite a large gap in absolute scale, Lighter printed $8.5 million in 30D fees vs. Hyperliquid&#8217;s $66.8 million, and Lighter&#8217;s open interest is $1.45 billion vs. $7.44 billion for Hyperliquid.



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Canton’s $6T RWA rails and Lighter’s Hyperliquid multiple

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Yield Basis (YB) is a novel DeFi mechanism that uses leverage to eliminate impermanent loss (IL) from AMMs. The founder of Yield Basis is the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/yield-basis-curve-dao-vote">same founder as Curve</a>, and synergies exist between the two. The mechanics of how this mechanism works can be found <a href="https://github.com/yield-basis/yb-paper/blob/master/leveraged-liquidity-paper.pdf">here</a>.&nbsp;



After years of witnessing failed attempts, YB strikes me as the first solution with legs, but you don’t need to take my word for it. YB already accounts for the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/michael-egorov-yield-basis-protocol">three-largest BTC DEX pools</a> in DeFi ($400 million+).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1570" height="361" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110703" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=1570 1570w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-190.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1570px) 100vw, 1570px" /></figure>



Moreover, this means that (wrapped) BTC token holders can now earn yield while supplying liquidity. Historically, the seven-day moving average for this (supply) yield has ranged between 4% and 40%.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1573" height="430" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110702" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=1573 1573w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-189.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1573px) 100vw, 1573px" /></figure>



And since many of us don’t LP into AMMs (unless we’re farming something), you might have forgotten that yields are earned in the pool tokens. So yes, that means native BTC yields.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="992" height="585" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110704" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=992 992w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=443 443w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=371 371w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-191.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 992px) 100vw, 992px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.valueverse.ai/tokens/yield-basis">Valueverse</a></figcaption></figure>







As for the token itself, it’s not just a <s>meme</s> governance token — there’s actual value. The <a href="https://x.com/yieldbasis/status/1995962614522765405">fee switch</a> was turned on earlier this month. YieldBasis LPs have two options for generating yield from provided liquidity: (a) hold the ybBTC LP token and receive BTC-denominated trading fees, or (b) stake ybBTC, forgo BTC-denominated trading fees and participate in YB emissions.&nbsp;



Corporate Finance 201 agrees with me when I say, &#8220;Don&#8217;t buy back the token, give me the earnings from the protocol, and I can decide for myself if and when I want to buy the token.” What I mean is, dividends give optionality, especially when you can choose which type of yield to receive. For perspective, for the week ending Dec. 25, roughly $450,000 was distributed (and this figure is despite caps on the LP pools).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="546" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110705" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-192.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.valueverse.ai/tokens/yield-basis">Valueverse</a></figcaption></figure>







If you’ve read this and think there’s finally a way to earn native yield on BTC without IL and without the risks, effort and costs of hedging, then you’d be right — but there could be more. YB is positioned as more than just an IL-free AMM: It is a yield and liquidity infrastructure designed to make otherwise non-productive assets yield-bearing while establishing secondary markets. By targeting wrapped native assets and tokenized RWAs, YB can theoretically make any sufficiently liquid and volatile asset productive, allowing issuers to earn from liquidity rather than subsidize market making, while also enabling holders to access yield and downstream DeFi use cases such as collateralization.



This model extends beyond crypto majors like BTC and ETH to tokenized commodities and equities such as Gold, Silver, and NVDA, whose onchain adoption is currently constrained by IL, shallow liquidity, and the absence of yield or liquidation pathways. Yield Basis could unlock these markets by offering a unique, superior yield option with an attractive risk-reward profile, deep liquidity and strong network effects.&nbsp;



YB is not without risk. I encourage you to read the paper (or get AI to explain it) and understand the potential downsides, but also the potential unlocks that YB has to offer.



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0xResearch

Yield Basis is making native BTC yield a reality

Sam Schubert

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The headline in crypto today is Lighter’s LIT token finally going live, marking a key moment in the ongoing battle for perps market share. In today’s coverage, we break down one of the most overlooked beneficiaries of perps growth (Pendle via Boros), and take a closer look at the evolving dynamics within the Solana liquid-staking landscape.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets kicked off the final week of the year on a softer note. Bitcoin (-0.81%) underperformed its US equity benchmarks, with the Nasdaq (-0.59%) and S&amp;P 500 (-0.39%) posting modest pullbacks after tech stocks drove the S&amp;P 500 to all-time highs last week. Meanwhile, Gold (-4.04%) and other precious metals saw a sharp selloff amid profit-taking, after having been standout performers in the past few weeks.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="877" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110655" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-177.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Back on the crypto front, Perps (+1.3%) was the only index to finish the day in the green, with HYPE leading gains ahead of <a href="https://x.com/Lighter_xyz/status/2005892910051406087?s=20">Lighter’s TGE</a> today. Competition for perps market share has heated up in recent months. Lighter has shown that verifiable execution and zero retail fees can drive market-leading volume, leading perps trading with just over $200 billion in volume over the past 30 days, followed by Aster ($172 billion) and Hyperliquid ($161 billion). That said, Hyperliquid remains the only one of the three operating without active incentives and is the clear revenue leader, generating ~$47 million over the same period.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="866" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110656" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-178.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The real test will be whether Lighter can hold its volume lead after TGE, especially with many attributing its recent surge to points farming. In an announcement thread last night, the team outlined the token structure and airdrop details, noting that “the value created by all Lighter products and services will fully accrue to LIT holders” and that the labs entity will operate at cost. Token distribution is split between ecosystem (50% of total supply) and team/investors (remaining 50%), with 25% of total supply airdropped to points holders from Seasons 1 and 2.



As of writing, LIT is trading at a circulating market cap of $695 million and an FDV of $2.8 billion. Per DeFiLlama, the protocol has generated <a href="https://defillama.com/protocol/fees/lighter">$8.76 million</a> in revenue over the past 30 days ($105 million annualized), implying LIT trades at a P/S of ~7x and an FDV/Sales of ~27x. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market update</h2>



While everyone is busy debating who will win the perps race (mostly Hyperliquid vs. Lighter chatter after Lighter’s TGE), the most interesting beneficiary might be hiding in plain sight: Pendle, via Boros. In my view, Pendle stands to gain from the structural growth and adoption of perpetual futures, regardless of who ultimately dominates, on either CEX or DEX rails.



Pendle launched Boros in early August 2025, bringing to DeFi a new onchain financial primitive: interest rate swaps. One can think of Boros as a perps exchange itself, but with two key twists. First, instead of betting on the price movements of assets, one is betting on the movements of yield. Second, while perpetuals (as the name suggests) have no expiry, Boros markets have a maturity date.&nbsp;



Although Boros has rolled out gradually, early traction has been strong. As shown in the chart below, daily open interest (OI) by maturity peaked at $245 million on Dec. 26, 2025, when eight markets with a combined $177 million in OI expired. The growth pattern in OI is highly cyclical, much like Pendle v2, reflecting the natural peaks and troughs around the maturities and redemptions inherent to yield markets.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110659" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-181.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Regarding its underlying mechanics, Boros enables trading of funding rates by creating something called a Yield Unit (YU). For those familiar with Pendle v2 markets, YU is similar to the Yield Token (YT), and represents the future yield of an underlying asset until its maturity. Traders can either go long or short the YU.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Long position: If a trader is long 2 YU-BTCUSDC-Hyperliquid at 10% implied APR, they are committed to paying a 10% fixed rate, while receiving the underlying APR (funding rate payments) equivalent to a 2 BTC position in Hyperliquid BTCUSDC.</li>



<li>Short position: In a short position, the trader would commit to paying the floating underlying APR in return for a fixed APR, determined by the average implied APR at the time they entered the position (10% in this example).</li>
</ul>



On Boros, rates are settled periodically at the same time as the underlying exchange’s funding rate settlement. For example, funding rates on Binance are settled every eight hours, so rates on Boros for the Binance pools are also settled every eight hours. Similarly, Hyperliquid funding rates are settled hourly, and Boros rates for these pools follow the same hourly settlement schedule. At maturity (or when the position is closed), if the average Underlying APR &gt; average implied APR upon entry, a long position will profit and vice versa.&nbsp;



Beyond OI, which currently sits at ~$88 million, another key metric for Boros is notional trading volume. As shown in the chart below, Boros has processed roughly $6.8 billion in cumulative volume since launch, with a median monthly volume of around $1.5 billion over the past four months.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110658" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-180.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Boros has two main fee sources: (1) a flat fee on top of the implied APR for every swap, which varies by market, and (2) a flat fee of 0.2% of the fixed APR side of every YU during settlement. The chart below shows that Boros has generated ~$300,000 in cumulative revenue since inception, averaging ~$67,000 in monthly revenue over the past four months. Of note, liquidation fees remain insignificant, amounting to ~$1,300 since inception.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110661" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-183.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Swap fees correlate with notional trading volume. In a market with a swap fee tier of 0.05%, traders will profit if implied APR changes by more than 0.1% in their favor (assuming no yield settlement), as traders will have to open and close the position, thus incurring 2x the swap fee. On the other hand, OI fees (0.2% of the fixed APR during settlement) follow the cyclical growth patterns of Boros’ OI.



While the bull case for Boros is that it becomes DeFi’s default interest rate derivatives venue (extending beyond funding rates to stablecoin yields, money market rates, LST yields and more), its largest opportunity over the next six to twelve months is squarely in the perpetuals vertical. Boros launched with only BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT perps markets on Binance in August, but has since expanded to additional venues (Hyperliquid and OKX) and assets (HYPE). The chart below shows that OI was dominated by Binance early on, but is now almost evenly distributed across venues as of Dec. 29: Binance (37%), Hyperliquid (35%), and OKX (29%).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110657" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-179.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Regarding asset dominance, the ETH-USD market remains the largest on Boros by OI, followed by BTC-USD and HYPE-USD.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110660" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-182.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



A key advantage of Boros is that it benefits from the maturation of perpetuals without being tied to any single venue, since it can support multiple exchanges and assets. As more sophisticated participants enter the perps space, they’re likely to demand strategies that Boros uniquely enables: hedging funding payments on a long position, hedging funding receivables on a short position, or implementing cash-and-carry trades. Looking ahead, as perps gain regulatory acceptance and more traditional firms trade RWA perps like equities and commodities, these players will want to trade YUs of TSLA, gold and hundreds of other assets on Boros.



Today, Boros represents less than 5% of Pendle v2 revenue, but it is well-positioned to be the most important growth vector for the protocol and may eventually rival or exceed v2 over time.



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A sleeper in the perps category

Boccaccio

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<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Happy Monday, and hope you all had a merry Christmas! We&#8217;re back with updates on recent crypto performance as we move into the New Year.



Gold led traditional benchmarks higher this week while BTC slipped nearly 1%, diverging from the broader risk-on mood. Solana ecosystem tokens outperformed, with JTO and DRIFT posting double-digit gains as L2s and Ethereum-linked sectors bled. Aave still dominates DeFi lending with 86% of protocol revenue, but its grip has loosened from 91% in January as Fluid and newer entrants chip away. Meanwhile, Lighter continues to beat out Hyperliquid on weekly volume, though the looming airdrop may be inflating those numbers.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Benchmarks drifted up slowly over the past week: Gold led gains (+3.57%) while the S&amp;P 500 (+1.15%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.84%) also posted modest advances. BTC bucked the trend, slipping 0.90% despite the broader environment.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110624" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-175.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Crypto sector indices showed mixed results over the week. On the upside, Solana Ecosystem (+4.4%) led gains, followed by Launchpads (+3.23%), DePIN (+2.23%), Perps (+2.17%), and Modular (+1.7%). DEXs (+1.42%) and AI (+1.07%) also posted modest advances. On the downside, L2s (-8.27%) and Lending (-6.82%) saw the steepest declines, with Ethereum Ecosystem (-6.57%) and Crypto Miners (-5.97%) also under pressure.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="883" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110623" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-174.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



JTO led the Solana Eco index with a +10.30% move, followed closely by DRIFT (+8.10%) as liquid staking and perps narratives found renewed interest. JUP (+4.14%), ORCA (+3.81%), and RAY (+3.40%) also posted solid gains, reflecting strength across the DEX sector. On the lagging end, MPLX (-2.68%) struggled to find footing, and PUMP was the clear underperformer at -5.11%, continuing to bleed as memecoin-launchpad fatigue set in.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110625" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-176.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Charts for the week</h2>



Aave has dominated the DeFi lending space in 2025, capturing 86% of protocol revenue and generating $120.9 million YTD. That said, Aave&#8217;s grip has loosened slightly over the year, dropping from 91% market share in January to 86% in December. New entrants HyperLend (launched March) and Jupiter Lend (launched July) now account for a combined 3.4% of the market, while Fluid more than doubled its share from 2.4% to 4.9%, making it the fastest growing competitor among established protocols.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/ae5768ea-1528-4ab0-a8d3-7b64084e6716" width="624" height="347"></h1>



Outstanding loans tell a similar story. Aave holds $21.3 billion in loans, representing 74.7% of the market, a share that has remained relatively flat since January. The real movement has been among challengers: Morpho grew from 10.6% to 12.8% of outstanding loans, while Spark collapsed from 11.5% to just 4.7%. Fluid nearly doubled its share from 3.6% to 5.0%, and newer entrants Jupiter Lend (2.1%) and HyperLend (0.7%) have carved out small but growing positions.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110622" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-173.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The downtrend in network revenues has continued, with total weekly revenue dropping 21% to $26.4 million, the lowest in at least a month. Hyperliquid saw the sharpest decline among major chains, falling 40% from $11.8 million to $7.1 million, while Ethereum dropped 38% to $2.2 million. Solana held up better, slipping just 2% to $4.7 million. Tron remained the top revenue generator after Hyperliquid at $6.1 million despite an 11% decline. The only notable gainers were smaller players: Arbitrum (+37%), Polygon (+50%), and BSC (+2%), though these moves represent relatively small absolute amounts.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110621" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-172.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



In August 2025, Hyperliquid saw $396 billion in volume and $121 million in revenue, with trailing 30-day volume peaking at $395 billion and the protocol dominating 80%+ of DeFi perps market share.



Lighter has done $30.9 billion in perp volume over the past seven days and $203.7 billion over the past month, with $1.48 billion in open interest. Aster has seen $26 billion in seven-day volume and $160.6 billion over 30 days, with a larger $7.4 billion in OI. Hyperliquid has fallen behind on weekly volume at $21.5 billion, though it still holds more than double their combined OI at $2.4 billion. With a Lighter airdrop incoming, we&#8217;ll see how the landscape shapes up if volumes drop drastically once the points program ends.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110620" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-171.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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The perps wars are heating up

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It’s been a slow week with Christmas, and traditional markets were closed yesterday. BTC slipped slightly (-0.4%) on muted volumes across the board, reflecting the broader holiday lull. With price action quiet, it’s a good moment to step back, reflect on 2025, and think about 2026 positioning.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="858" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110612" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Bitcoin has underperformed stock benchmarks this year, but its performance vs. gold and silver is even more striking. In hindsight, those two will likely be remembered as the standout assets of 2025, a surprising outcome if you’d predicted it at the start of the year. Gold is having its best year since 1979, up around 72% year to date and recently breaking out to new all-time highs above $4,500 an ounce. Silver has done even better, rallying nearly 160% year to date and about 45% in the past month alone, reaching a record ~$75 an ounce yesterday.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="852" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110613" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Looking ahead, 2026 could present compelling opportunities in liquid tokens. Many quality DeFi names are trading near multi-year lows, even as fundamentals and forward-looking growth remain strong. Crucially, value capture has flipped from infrastructure to applications: On Solana, for example, apps now generate roughly 3x the revenue of the network. The key question for investors is whether, and when, valuations will start to reflect this new reality.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1234" height="684" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110615" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=1234 1234w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1234px) 100vw, 1234px" /></figure>



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Gold and silver won 2025

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Maple (SYRUP) is up 26% over the past week, outperforming all other money markets in our lending index. Alongside Sky, it is the only asset in the index with a positive year-to-date performance, and by a broad margin, up 112% vs. Sky’s 7%. What’s driving Maple’s strength, and how has it remained resilient despite challenging market conditions?



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="848" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110605" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-164.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Maple, as one of DeFi’s longest-standing lending protocols, was able to come back from the 2022 credit crisis by pivoting away from undercollateralized lending toward a fully secured, overcollateralized model, with an <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/maple-finance-institutional-lending">institutional approach</a>: Permissionless Syrup pools accept USDC or USDT deposits (syrupUSDC, syrupUSDT), while permissioned pools accept only USDC. Capital from these pools is then deployed OTC to institutional borrowers, collateralized by BTC or other highly liquid cryptoassets.



As seen below, Maple has surpassed $4 billion in deposits, with about 63% of deposits coming from the syrupUSDC pool, 27% from the syrupUSDT pool, and 10% from Maple Institutional (its permissioned secured lending pool).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110606" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-165.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



How does Maple stack up against other money markets? Among protocols with more than $3 billion in deposits, Maple has been the fastest-growing in every quarter this year except Q3, when it ranked second behind Fluid. Q2 marked Maple’s strongest quarter, with deposits up 225% and borrows rising more than 250%. Year-to-date, deposits have grown an exceptional 701%, while outstanding loans are up 1,118%. Notably, loan origination has outpaced growth in deposits, underscoring increasingly high utilization.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110603" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-162.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Maple’s growth has largely been driven by syrupUSDC, which as we mentioned accounts for 63% of Maple’s deposits ($2.66 billion) as of Dec. 21. One of the attractive selling points of syrupUSDC is the sustained high yield, linked to stable demand from Maple’s institutional client base. syrupUSDC has outperformed all other benchmark yields in the cohort year-to-date, with an average APY of ~8%. However, it’s worth noting that in recent months the yield has been declining, with Morpho’s USDC yield remaining competitive since August and outperforming sharply during November.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110607" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-166.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Regarding the methodology, we use market-weighted USDC supply rates across competing protocols, based on base interest paid by borrowers (excluding any incentives). We then compute trailing 30-day annualized rates and compare them to the benchmark yield, syrupUSDC.



Another growth catalyst for syrupUSDC and syrupUSDT has been deep DeFi integrations. Maple’s yield-bearing stablecoins have been integrated into Pendle’s PT markets and onboarded as collateral across several money markets (Aave, Fluid, Jup Lend, Spark, and Kamino), enabling looping strategies against non-yield-bearing stables. This kind of distribution can further accelerate Maple’s growth, particularly during periods when syrupUSDC outperforms benchmark yields, including Ethena’s sUSDe.&nbsp;



Putting it all together, Maple has outpaced competing money markets year-to-date in both deposit and borrow growth, as well as USDC supply yields. How has that performance translated into revenue? The table below compares Maple against its peers on quarterly revenue and price-to-sales multiples.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110604" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-163.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Based on Q4 2025 revenue figures, Maple (SYRUP) is trading at the most attractive valuation of the cohort on a growth and FDV/Sales basis. Maple’s annualized revenue run rate has increased 533% YoY, from $1.0 million in Q4 2024 to a forecasted $6.6 million in Q4 2025.



Regarding token distribution, all initial team, advisor, seed investor, and public sale allocations were fully vested as of 2023, eliminating supply overhang concerns. Of note, SYRUP scored 37 on the <a href="https://blockworks.co/token-transparency">Token Transparency Framework</a>, indicating that the project has fully disclosed its revenue streams, equity to token holder rights, advisory service providers, and executive team personnel.



Given Maple’s fundamentals, alongside a favorable token structure (limited supply overhang and clear disclosures around value accrual), it’s unsurprising that SYRUP is the best-performing lending token year-to-date and has continued to show notable relative strength in recent days.



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Maple’s fundamentals are driving outperformance

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Today’s coverage takes stock of where capital actually went as we move through the end of the year. First, we start with index readings that show a continued rotation into large, proven crypto infrastructure while speculative sectors continue to unwind. Then we quantify the damage across 2025 token launches.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Bitcoin was essentially flat over the past week (+0.3%), underperforming traditional benchmarks — NASDAQ (+1.7%), Gold (+1.1%), and S&amp;P 500 (+0.9%). The divergence accelerated mid-week around Dec. 18, when most crypto sectors sold off sharply while equities held steady, suggesting a crypto-specific risk-off move rather than broader macro weakness.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="863" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110579" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



DEXs (+11%) led all indices, followed by Crypto Miners (+9.5%) and the 2025 Crypto Equity Cohort (+9.2%). DEX outperformance was driven by UNI up +15.4%, following the <a href="https://vote.uniswapfoundation.org/proposals/93">UNIfication vote</a> live onchain, with 69M UNI (40M quorum) voting yes. L1s (-2%) and Exchange Tokens (-2.2%) posted modest losses.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110578" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



AI was the worst-performing sector (-21%), driven largely by TAO (-21%). TAO weakness likely reflects a sell-the-news unwind around Bittensor’s first halving (around Dec. 14), which cut daily issuance in half but did not immediately translate into incremental demand, alongside broader de-risking across the AI token complex.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Negative returns on new tokens</h2>



With year-end approaching, it’s worth zooming out on 2025’s worst tape: new token launches. A recent <a href="https://x.com/ahboyash/status/2002363360327704834">post by Ahboyash</a> put hard numbers behind what many felt intuitively. Across 117 tokens launched in 2025, returns are overwhelmingly negative. The median token is down ~71% versus its listing fully diluted valuation (FDV). Only 17/117 (15%) trade above launch valuation, while roughly 40% are down more than 80%.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1188" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110581" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1188 1188w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=414 414w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=420 420w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1188px) 100vw, 1188px" /></figure>



The downside is both broad and severe: 100/117 tokens (85%) are underwater. Losses cluster most heavily in the 50–90% drawdown range, which represents the largest share of launches.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1188" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110580" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=1188 1188w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=414 414w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=420 420w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1188px) 100vw, 1188px" /></figure>



At the extreme tail, 15 tokens have declined more than 90%, including high-profile launches such as Berachain (-93%), Animecoin (-94%), and Bio Protocol (-93%).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1188" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110582" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1188 1188w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=414 414w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=420 420w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1188px) 100vw, 1188px" /></figure>



In aggregate, the cohort’s total FDV has compressed from $139 billion at listing to $54 billion today, implying roughly $87 billion (59%) of “paper” FDV destruction, excluding any projects that effectively went to zero.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="692" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110583" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The dispersion on the right tail is real, but concentrated. The worst performers skew toward infrastructure and gaming, with Syndicate (-93.6%) and Animecoin (-93.6%) among the laggards. Meanwhile, the standout winners are largely later-stage, H2 launches with lower starting valuations, including Aster (+745%), Yooldo Games (+538%), and Humanity (+323%).



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The year new tokens died

Luke Leasure

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Crypto and risk assets continue to show weakness heading into year-end, not adding to the holiday spirit. Risk assets are in search of a floor, driven by fundamental flows supported by ETFs or protocol buybacks.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



This week closes out with continued weakness across the board, and in crypto risk in particular. Both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 moved over a -1% lower this week, with gold being the one instrument showing strength. Concurrently, every crypto index we track has traded lower throughout the week. Notably, exchange tokens, buyback leaders, and the 2025 crypto equity cohort outperformed BTC intra-week, while everything else underperformed. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1488" height="837" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110565" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=1488 1488w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1488px) 100vw, 1488px" /></figure>



The AI sector was the top loser on the week, trading down -26%. The downside was led by TAO, which notched new multi-month lows after being a top performer in October.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1488" height="837" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110566" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=1488 1488w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1488px) 100vw, 1488px" /></figure>



Broadly, crypto continues its downtrend, with majors like BTC, ETH and SOL showing weakness while longer tail alts make larger moves to the downside. Risk is in search of a fundamental floor, which still may remain lower until price/buybacks becomes too compelling, and buyback flows from these protocol cashflows can set a low. Similarly, majors may need an uptick in ETF inflows to set their low, while the support provided by these vehicles has been anemic in the weeks past.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Weekend Reading</h2>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://substack.com/home/post/p-181521558">Taking a Step Back to Step Forward</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1506" height="1102" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110570" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=1506 1506w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=351 351w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=357 357w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=299 299w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1506px) 100vw, 1506px" /></figure>



Michael W. Green published a blog post titled “Taking a Step Back to Step Forward” that reframes US economic precarity through a structural and mathematical lens. Drawing on Ole Peters’ “Equation of Life,” Green argues that wealth naturally concentrates without redistribution (τ &lt; 0), leading to systemic inequality. He critiques distorted CPI measures, technocratic complacency, and housing scarcity as mechanisms of economic extraction. With credit spreads artificially tight despite rising defaults, he warns of financial fragility. Green calls for civic engagement and institutional accountability, setting the stage for further essays and political interviews focused on systemic reform. <a href="https://substack.com/home/post/p-181521558">Read more</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://forum.sky.money/t/annual-state-of-sky-ecosystem-2025/27554">Annual State of Sky Ecosystem</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="690" height="387" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-110568" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=690 690w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=465 465w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px" /></figure>



Sky Frontier Foundation published a research report titled “Annual State of Sky Ecosystem” outlining the protocol’s major achievements and financial growth in 2025. The Sky Ecosystem saw an 86% increase in USDS supply (to $9.86B), outpacing the broader stablecoin market. Sky Protocol generated $435M in revenue and $168M in profits, with substantial SKY token buybacks and staking rewards. With new regulatory clarity via the GENIUS Act and multiple Sky Agent launches, the report projects strong institutional adoption and protocol expansion in 2026, positioning Sky as a leader in decentralized, yield-bearing stablecoins. <a href="https://forum.sky.money/t/annual-state-of-sky-ecosystem-2025/27554">Read more</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://x.com/malekanoms/status/2001303930379128954">Beware the Lofty Promises of TradFi Firms Embracing Tokenization</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="680" height="272" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-110567" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=680 680w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px" /></figure>



Omid Malekan published a blog post titled “Beware the Lofty Promises of TradFi Firms Embracing Tokenization” that critiques traditional financial institutions (DTCC, Visa, SWIFT, Stripe, PayPal) for selectively embracing blockchain benefits while ignoring its existential threats to their legacy business models. Malekan argues these firms tout tokenization, but avoid decentralization, risking co-opting crypto’s core values. He warns that permissioned chains and regulatory lobbying may dilute crypto’s foundational principles. While he advocates engagement with TradFi, he urges the crypto community to defend public, permissionless networks and resist compromising decentralization for mainstream adoption. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://x.com/DeFi_Cheetah/status/2000575887352488085">Not ‘No One Wants Non‑USD Stables’ — It’s ‘No Banks Want Non‑USD Inventory’</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="680" height="272" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-110569" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=680 680w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px" /></figure>



@DeFi_Cheetah on X published an article post titled “It’s Not ‘No One Wants Non‑USD Stables’ — It’s ‘No Banks Want Non‑USD Inventory’” arguing that the real barrier to non-USD stablecoin adoption is not demand, but structural limitations in the global banking system. The piece dissects how Basel III regulations, liquidity constraints, and G-SIB penalties discourage banks from holding non-USD inventories or servicing emerging market corridors. The result is a liquidity vacuum in non-USD FX markets. The author calls for DeFi-native solutions to bootstrap non-USD stable liquidity, warning that relying on traditional FX infrastructure will fail by design. <a href="https://x.com/DeFi_Cheetah/status/2000575887352488085">Read more</a>



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Grinch rally: Crypto indices track lower through the week

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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This Wednesday, BTC outpaced stocks as launchpads rose. More importantly, this week’s update highlights a clear structural shift in how crypto markets are being distributed. 



We also take a look at M&amp;A and fundraising over the past year, and note the drastic growth of mergers and acquisitions activity in crypto. Together, these trends point to a market where infrastructure, not listings, is becoming the primary driver of scale and access.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets leaned modestly risk-on over the last session, with crypto and growth assets leading while defensives lagged. BTC outperformed on the day (+1.6%), while the Nasdaq 100 (+0.1%) and Gold (+0.1%) were effectively flat, and the S&amp;P 500 slipped modestly (-0.4%), reinforcing the view that incremental risk appetite was concentrated squarely in crypto rather than across broader macro assets. Intraday volatility was noticeable across all lines, but dips were consistently bought, particularly during the US trading window.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110507" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-120.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Within crypto, today’s tape was defined by aggressive rotation into trading themes. Launchpads (+3.9%) led the complex by a wide margin, followed by the Solana ecosystem (+2.3%) and DEXs (+2.1%). Crypto Miners (+1.9%), tokens with Buybacks (+1.9%), Exchange tokens (+1.9%) and plays like RWA (+1.9%) also finished green. On the other side, several categories saw sharp givebacks. Gaming (-6.4%) was the clear laggard, with Lending (-3.7%), Revenue Leaders (-3.5%), Ethereum ecosystem (-3.5%), and Memes (-3.4%) all posting steep declines.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110508" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-121.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Within Revenue Leaders, HYPE (-3.0%) continues to underperform as concerns around sustainability, take fees and competition arise. Meanwhile, AAVE (-3.8%) was the worst performing asset in the index as concerns around Aave Labs and DAO alignment continue. This is despite Aave founder Stani Kulechov <a href="https://x.com/StaniKulechov/status/2000712591144804534?s=20">swapping</a> almost $10 million of wrapped ETH into AAVE to signal “alignment” with the token.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110509" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-122.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Overall, the market action suggests tactical rotations rather than a broad risk-off shift. Volatility remains elevated and flows appear selective. Sustained follow-through will likely depend on BTC’s ability to hold recent gains and reassert leadership.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update</h2>



Jupiter has integrated with Coinbase’s onchain trading stack to power swaps for Solana-based assets, bringing one of Solana’s most important liquidity layers directly into a mainstream crypto interface. The integration allows users to trade Solana tokens via Coinbase’s onchain experience, while Jupiter handles routing and execution across Solana DeFi in the background.



On average, Jupiter generates around $4 million in monthly revenue from its aggregator (ultra) offering and this integration paves the way to monetize this further.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110534" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-137.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



So what’s actually happening? Well, rather than listing new Solana assets directly on a centralized order book, Coinbase is leaning into onchain rails. Jupiter acts as the execution engine, aggregating liquidity across Solana DEXs, optimizing routes, and settling trades onchain, while Coinbase provides the distribution, UX, and on- and off-ramps. For users, this means access to a much broader universe of Solana tokens than would typically be available through centralized listings, without needing to leave the Coinbase ecosystem.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1286" height="701" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110512" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=1286 1286w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-125.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1286px) 100vw, 1286px" /></figure>



<a href="https://x.com/solana/status/1999035191323759024"></a>



Coinbase is one of the leading exchanges in the world, with a large user base with roughly $80-$100 billion in average monthly trading spot volume.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1001" height="680" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110513" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=1001 1001w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=378 378w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=384 384w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=322 322w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-126.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1001px) 100vw, 1001px" /></figure>



<a href="https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/spot"></a>Similarly, Jupiter already sits at the center of Solana spot trading activity, with roughly $50 billion in monthly trading spot volume.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110531" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-136.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Together, they significantly expand how Solana-native assets reach retail users. Notably, Coinbase isn’t competing with Solana DeFi primitives here, it’s embedding them. This reflects a broader shift where centralized platforms increasingly act as frontends to onchain liquidity. The logic behind this is that onchain trading removes the long lead times associated with centralized exchange listings, allowing markets to form where liquidity already exists. Amid a market downturn, this integration may act as a rerating catalyst for both COIN and JUP by expanding trading volume and revenue potential.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110529" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-135.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



However, permissionless markets cut both ways. Access to more tokens also means exposure to illiquid or malicious assets, so verification, liquidity checks and trade sizing remain essential. The Jupiter-Coinbase integration is less about a single partnership and more about a structural shift, where major exchanges increasingly rely on DeFi infrastructure to deliver broader market access and Solana’s trading stack becomes harder to ignore.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fundraising and M&amp;A update</h2>



Crypto M&amp;A activity has experienced drastic growth over the past several quarters. M&amp;A volume in November 2025 alone reached approximately $10.7 billion, driven largely by Naver&#8217;s acquisition of Dunamu (operator of the Upbit exchange) for $10.3 billion.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110517" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-130.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



This follows a strong Q3 2025 where crypto M&amp;A topped $10 billion for the first time, doubling the previous record of $5 billion and representing a 30x jump compared to the same period in 2024. By November 2025, total M&amp;A deal value reached $8.6 billion across 133 deals (excluding the Dunamu mega-deal), exceeding the combined total of the previous four years. M&amp;A has grown from $457,000 in Q1 2021 to $4.2 billion in Q2 2025, which represents a roughly 9000x increase.&nbsp;



The surge has been led by major exchanges executing aggressive expansion strategies. Coinbase completed six acquisitions in 2025, including the $2.9 billion purchase of Deribit, the current leading crypto options platform. Ripple acquired four companies, including the $1.25 billion purchase of prime brokerage Hidden Road, while Kraken completed five acquisitions, including NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion and Small Exchange for $100 million. Recent deals show continued momentum into December, with Paribu acquiring CoinMENA for $240 million, Stripe acquiring wallet provider Valora, Kraken purchasing tokenization firm Backed, and Galaxy acquiring liquid staking protocol Alluvial.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110518" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-131.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Crypto fundraising has grown approximately 41%: from the previous cycle peak of $4.63 billion in January 2021 to the new high of $6.52 billion in July 2025.&nbsp;



Fundraising activity has been robust throughout 2025, though with more variation month to month. Fundraising peaked in July 2025 at $6.5 billion before decreasing to around $4-5 billion monthly through Q3 and Q4. Notable recent raises include Kraken securing $800 million across two rounds in November (including $200 million from Citadel Securities at a $20 billion valuation), Kalshi raising $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation for its prediction markets platform, Monad completing a $188 million public sale at a $2.5 billion valuation, and RedotPay closing a $107 million Series B for its crypto payments infrastructure. Year-to-date fundraising through November 2025 totaled approximately $36 billion, a significant recovery from the crypto winter years of 2023-2024 when monthly fundraising often struggled to exceed $1 billion.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110519" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-132.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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Coinbase embeds Solana trading

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We start with a risk-off tape across tech, crypto and miners, then zoom in on Robinhood’s prediction market roadmap.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets closed with a clear risk-off tone yesterday. Gold was the lone bright spot, finishing up 0.8%, while the S&amp;P 500 ended flat and the Nasdaq and BTC fell -1.38% and -1.89%, respectively.&nbsp;



The underlying drivers remain unchanged, with continued rotation out of the AI trade weighing on tech-heavy indices. This time, sentiment was rattled by reports that a key Oracle investor pulled out of a data center project. Although Oracle later disputed the claim, the headline was enough to push already cautious investors further into defensive positioning.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="851" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110546" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-140.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



That weakness spilled into crypto, with every sector finishing in the red. One surprising holdout was the meme index, which declined just -1.2% despite typically being one of the most sentiment-sensitive sectors. The index found support from M (MemeCore), which was the only constituent to close green and gained 1.96% on the day.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="849" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110547" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-141.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The hardest-hit sectors were Crypto Miners and AI, both down close to -9%. Miners continue to feel pressure from fears that the AI trade is rolling over, with IREN now down -31% over the past month. In the AI index, TAO was the weakest performer, falling -9% despite its recent halving.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1219" height="558" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110545" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=1219 1219w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-139.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1219px) 100vw, 1219px" /></figure>



Some hopium for the readers: Despite the negative market sentiment, BTC ETFs have flipped positive once again and notched $346.1 million worth of inflows yesterday. Let’s hope this trend can continue for at least a few consecutive days to end the year off on a slightly positive note.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update</h2>



It feels like every other week brings a major development in prediction markets. This week it was Robinhood, which unveiled new prediction-market features at its keynote event. The growing focus makes sense. Prediction markets have become Robinhood’s <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-markets-business-booms-where-135300625.html">fastest growing product by revenue</a>, with 11 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million users.



Sports continue to be the clear driver. They now account for about <a href="https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets">35%</a> of volumes on Polymarket and close to <a href="https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets">90%</a> on Kalshi. If we annualize sports volumes from the past four weeks across both platforms, that comes out to roughly $74.5 billion. For context, FanDuel saw about <a href="https://www.deucescracked.com/us-sports-betting-revenue-soars-to-14b-record-in-q4-2024/">$50.7 billion</a> wagered in 2024 and DraftKings around <a href="https://www.deucescracked.com/us-sports-betting-revenue-soars-to-14b-record-in-q4-2024/">$49.4 billion</a>. Prediction markets are no longer a niche product — they are directly competing with established Web2 incumbents.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="779" height="474" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110544" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=779 779w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=422 422w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=429 429w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=360 360w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-138.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 779px) 100vw, 779px" /></figure>



The final missing piece has been parlays. Parlays make up roughly <a href="https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2025/kalshi-nfl-parlays-volume-1234873711/#:~:text=around%2030%25%20of%20handle%20in%20Maryland%2C%20Illinois%20and%20New%20Jersey%20this%20year">30%</a> of sports-betting volumes and nearly <a href="https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2025/kalshi-nfl-parlays-volume-1234873711/#:~:text=around%2030%25%20of%20handle%20in%20Maryland%2C%20Illinois%20and%20New%20Jersey%20this%20year">60%</a> of industry revenues. They bundle multiple wagers into a single bet, offering much higher payouts but with far lower odds of winning. This is precisely why they are so lucrative for platforms.



Robinhood is now moving aggressively into this territory. It <a href="https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhood-presents-yes-no-event/">announced</a> that users will soon be able to trade combinations of outcomes, totals and spreads for individual NFL games. Looking ahead to early 2026, users will be able to create custom combinations of up to 10 outcomes for NFL games. Robinhood will also <a href="https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhood-presents-yes-no-event/">allow</a> trading on individual player performance. This is a meaningful leap from the basic win/lose markets currently offered and opens the door to far more speculation and volume. Robinhood <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/robinhood-is-rolling-out-nfl-parlay-and-prop-bets-on-prediction-markets-platform.html">plans</a> to extend these features beyond football and eventually beyond sports altogether.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="814" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110548" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-142.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The remaining question is how Robinhood chooses to build. Will these products be developed in partnership with Kalshi or brought fully in-house? This question became more relevant after Robinhood’s <a href="https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/robinhood-prediction-markets-joint-venture/">recent</a> plans to build proprietary prediction market infrastructure through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. Coinbase also entered the picture this week by <a href="https://fortune.com/2025/12/17/coinbase-announces-stock-trading-and-new-kalshi-based-prediction-markets/">announcing</a> a partnership with Kalshi to roll out prediction markets to its users. The arms race is clearly underway.



Sports markets have found clear product-market fit this year. With distribution at scale and increasingly sophisticated products, Robinhood’s latest moves could give it a meaningful edge. If there were a market today for the prediction market leader by volume in 2026, my bet would be on Robinhood.



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Robinhood’s leap shows the prediction-market arms race is underway

Another week, another MetaDAO advertisement

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As dispersion continues, this week has pointed to concrete shifts rather than narrative noise. Aerodrome’s net income moved toward breakeven as emissions fell in line with revenue, while USDai’s TVL showed stepwise growth. At the same time, tokenized assets continued to scale across credit, Treasurys and commodities, while new trading infrastructure, from ultra-low latency chains (Fogo) to equity perpetuals, pushed closer to traditional market benchmarks.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets leaned risk-off over the past week, with dispersion widening across both traditional and digital assets. BTC slipped (-2.3%) while the Nasdaq 100 (-2.1%) and S&amp;P 500 (-0.7%) also closed lower, reflecting a softening risk backdrop. Gold (+2.3%) stood out as one of the few macro hedge bids, suggesting incremental rotation toward defensives as positioning reset into year-end.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110460" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Crypto sector indices told a sharper story. On the upside, Memecoins (+16.0%) and L2s (+9.7%) dominated weekly gains, pointing to short-term speculative flows and demonstrating renewed optimism around scaling narratives and higher beta players. AI (+1.3%), Lending (+1.0%), and Ethereum Ecosystem (+0.9%) also managed modest green prints. In contrast, weakness was pronounced across Solana Ecosystem (-10.5%), DePIN (-7.1%), RWAs (-7.0%), and Crypto Miners (-5.4%), underscoring pressure on structurally levered or capex-heavy themes. Launchpads (-2.3%) and DEXs (-2.8%) also lagged as volumes cooled.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110453" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



While the L2 sector outperformed this week, under the hood, dispersion was notable. <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/merl">MERL</a> was the standout, ripping higher into the week’s close and finishing well north of its peers. <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/mnt">MNT</a> also saw strong relative strength, grinding steadily higher and holding gains even as the rest of the complex chopped sideways. OP and ARB tracked closer to the index average, posting modest gains but failing to show the same upside convexity. On the lagging end, BLAST remained the clear underperformer, trending lower throughout the week.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110454" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Charts for The Week</h2>



Aerodrome’s weekly net income (protocol revenue minus token emissions) is <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/flashnotes/aero-merger-update-metadex03-and-cross-chain-expansion">transitioning</a> from a prolonged period of heavy losses to near breakeven and occasional profitability. Throughout most of 2024, emissions materially exceeded revenue, with weekly net losses reaching as much as ~$20 million at the trough, reflecting aggressive liquidity incentives. However, starting in early 2025, losses narrowed sharply as emissions declined and revenue stabilized, with recent weeks oscillating around zero and turning modestly positive at times. This inflection supports the view that Aerodrome’s unit economics are improving, with protocol revenue now broadly keeping pace with emissions for the first sustained period since launch.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110457" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



USDai’s TVL trajectory reflects a classic step-function adoption curve consistent with institutional balance sheet deployment rather than organic retail inflows. TVL accelerated sharply in September as several large capital allocations entered the system. The discrete jumps suggest tranche-based deployments tied to predefined mandates. The plateauing of TVL above ~$550 million into November implies capital stickiness and low redemption pressure, reinforcing the view that USDai is functioning as a balance sheet instrument rather than a pure trading vehicle.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110458" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Tokenization has evolved from a niche experiment to a strategic priority for global financial institutions. Today’s tokenized asset market is composed of $300 billion in stablecoins, $17.4 billion in private credit, $8.2 billion in US government debt, $2.3 billion in commodities, and $1.4 billion in public equities. Estimates underscore the scale of this shift. A report by BCG and ADDX projects that up to $16 trillion of real-world assets could be tokenized by 2030, spanning public equities, private markets, real estate and debt instruments. Similarly, Citi forecasts $4-5 trillion in tokenized digital securities and an additional $5 trillion in tokenized trade finance volume over the same period.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110459" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



<a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/fogo-testnet-traction-and-mainnet-readiness">Fogo</a> stands out with industry-leading 40ms block times and ~1-second finality, delivering materially faster execution than Solana’s 400ms blocks and far superior responsiveness compared to Ethereum’s multi-minute finality. While Hyperliquid and Solana post higher peak TPS figures on paper, Fogo’s combination of ultra-low latency and sub-second finality positions it closer to traditional financial market infrastructure, reinforcing its thesis as an institutional-grade trading chain rather than a broad consumer L1.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110455" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Outside of Root, the top nine subnets currently hold ~44% of all <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/bittensor-positioning-for-the-post-halving-repricing">TAO staked</a> across subnets and receive 37.4% of TAO emissions. This concentration has been steadily declining from a high of ~52% in May 2025 as more TAO flows into smaller or emerging subnets. The trend suggests a gradual broadening of participation and a healthier distribution of stake over time.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110456" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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Capital gets selective

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Performance across major assets diverged yesterday. Gold, BTC, and the S&amp;P 500 posted gains of 0.95%, 0.55%, and 0.39%, respectively, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped -0.12%.



The divergence was driven largely by Oracle, whose shares fell -11% after disappointing quarterly revenues and higher spending guidance. That miss reignited <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/stock-market-today-live-updates.html">concerns</a> around the durability of the AI trade and sparked a rotation out of tech and into lagging parts of the market, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fresh highs.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="846" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-93.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110431" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-93.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-93.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-93.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-93.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-93.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-93.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-93.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-93.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-93.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Crypto sector performance echoed the uneven tape. Despite renewed skepticism around AI, Crypto Miners were the standout performers, rising 4.5% on the day. IREN, which makes up 24% of the index, gained 4.4% and helped lead the move. DeFi followed with a 1.93% gain, driven by strength in AAVE, ENA, and HYPE, which together account for 44% of the index and all closed higher.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="841" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-92.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110430" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-92.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-92.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-92.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-92.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-92.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-92.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-92.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-92.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-92.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



On the downside, DePIN continued to struggle, falling -3.2%. The sector was dragged lower by FIL and GRASS, which dropped -6.2% and -7.2%, respectively. L1s were another surprise laggard, down -2.5% on the day. Even with BTC in the green, most L1 constituents finished lower, with SEI and BERA both posting losses of -9%.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1221" height="555" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-91.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110429" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-91.png?w=1221 1221w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-91.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-91.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-91.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-91.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-91.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-91.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-91.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1221px) 100vw, 1221px" /></figure>



Flows remain a headwind. After a strong $346.2 million day of ETF inflows on Dec. 9, momentum faded again with both BTC and ETH ETFs seeing outflows of -$154.2 million and -$42.3 million, respectively, yesterday. The lone bright spot continues to be SOL ETFs, which are still attracting low single- to low double-digit millions in daily inflows.



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BTC is up and L1s are down as flows turn messy again

Fixing crypto’s broken investor relations

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Markets leaned cautiously risk-on, with crypto outperforming a mixed backdrop in traditional assets. ETF flows had their biggest one-day surge since October as CPI, Treasury auctions and a dense FOMC week could reset risk appetite. In addition, we discuss the new WET token, the native token of the HumidiFi prop AMM.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets leaned risk-on, with crypto leading and traditional assets mixed. BTC posted a modest gain (+2.3%), outperforming equities where the S&amp;P 500 (-0.3%) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.2%) softened, while Gold held nearly flat (+0.3%). The standout laggard was the Perp Index, which contracted by -5.1%.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110386" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Perps (-5.1%) were the day’s clear laggard, weighed down by a sharp intraday spike-and-fade across dYdX, GMX, and specifically HYPE. A midday squeeze briefly lifted the sector before momentum stalled and flows reversed into the close. JUP rose as much as 9% before retracing most of its gains. Meanwhile, HYPE has been struggling as of late, as builder codes create new frontend relationships with users, and the market anticipates a TGE from <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lighter-opens-public-mainnet">rival Lighter</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110378" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Looking ahead, markets will pivot toward this week’s CPI print and a slate of mid-week Treasury auctions, both of which could reset risk appetite. With implied volatility still suppressed across majors, any macro surprise risks producing outsized moves.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update&nbsp;</h2>



Flows finally turned meaningfully positive. BTC ETFs drove the bulk of the move ($287 million), ETH had its best day since Oct. 28 ($142 million) and SOL contributed marginally ($16 million). This is the first clean signal of risk appetite returning after nearly a month of choppy to negative prints. The flow spike likely reflects short-term positioning ahead of catalysts such as FOMC, inflation data, and jobs. It can also be attributed to quarter-end optics, as allocators often re-express benchmark exposure into liquid wrappers during macro-heavy weeks.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110376" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Still, AUM-to-market-cap ratios tell a different story. BTC remains stuck near ~6.6–6.8%, ETH continues its multi-month slide from ~3.3% to ~2.8%, and SOL, while rising, sits just under 1%. This divergence implies that price appreciation, not sticky inflows, has been the dominant force maintaining ETF sizes.



Meanwhile, BTC’s inflow looks more like tactical re-risking than renewed conviction. Derivatives markets show elevated basis but falling perp OI, a sign that capital currently prefers directional spot exposure over leverage.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110375" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



ETF flows are becoming increasingly important for BTC, because traditional “DATCO” buyers aren’t carrying the bid anymore. The latest treasury holdings data shows that, aside from Strategy (MSTR), corporate accumulation has been effectively flat for months. Names like NAKAMOTO, SMLR, SQNS, and the smaller treasury cohorts have added marginal amounts at best, contributing almost nothing to incremental demand. Even MSTR can’t continue to accumulate in the same way it did before.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110377" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



This is especially true as the major BTC DATCOs have mNAVs below 1, removing the once BTC-accretive play of diluting shareholders. In other words, the corporate balance sheet bid that helped define the prior cycle and earlier in this cycle isn’t showing up any time soon for BTC.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110379" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



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ETFs flash a bid, HumidiFi tokenizes

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Over the past several days, the exchange between Kamino and Jupiter has escalated from healthy competition to a clear public dispute. The events started on Nov. 27, when Jup Lend introduced a <a href="https://support.jup.ag/hc/en-us/articles/23407960232092-All-about-Refinance">refinancing tool</a> on its frontend to migrate looping positions from Kamino Multiply directly into Jup Lend with a single click. The refinance operation initiated an atomic transaction involving four steps:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Repay outstanding debt on Kamino.</li>



<li>Withdraw the associated collateral.</li>



<li>Transfer these assets to Jupiter Lend.</li>



<li>Recreate the position inside Jupiter Lend, maintaining the same loan amount and collateral ratio.</li>
</ol>



On Dec. 2, Kamino <a href="https://x.com/prady_v/status/1995756192988323845?s=20">updated</a> its smart contracts to block Jupiter’s program, preventing one-click refinancing. Both the Jupiter and Fluid teams (Jup Lend uses Fluid in the backend) framed the move as anti-competitive and against “open-finance principles.”



On Dec. 6, Kamino’s co-founder publicly <a href="https://x.com/y2kappa/status/1997333295474802777?s=20">explained</a> the rationale for blocking Jup Lend’s migration tool, noting that Jupiter had repeatedly suggested that borrowers’ collateral is isolated, implying it is neither rehypothecated nor exposed to cross-contamination risk. However, this claim was not true, with even Fluid’s co-founder <a href="https://x.com/smykjain/status/1997075350799736981?s=20">acknowledging</a> rehypothecation within Jup Lend.



​Notably, Kamino never prevented users from repaying their loans manually and withdrawing their capital to Jup Lend. Whether against open-finance principles or not, the move to block the refinancing program was fundamentally a business decision, much like Jup Lend’s decision not to open-source its code (though it has plans to do so). In this regard, it’s interesting to analyze the competitive dynamics between both money markets over the past few months.



Since its launch in late August, Jup Lend has grown to $1.6 billion in deposits and $610 million in borrows. The chart below shows that Kamino’s deposits and borrows have decreased by $1.3 billion (-28%) and $460 million (-26%), respectively, during the same period.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110353" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-74.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The top five assets by deposit growth since Jup Lend’s launch are USDC ($485 million), JLP ($225 million), SOL ($206 million), syrupUSDC ($174 million), and jupSOL ($85 million). During the same period, Kamino has seen sizable outflows for all of these assets, except syrupUSDC. However, even for syrupUSDC, Jup Lend still attracted roughly 3x more inflows.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-73.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110352" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-73.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-73.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-73.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-73.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-73.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-73.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-73.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-73.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-73.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Kamino’s growth over the past few months has come from assets not yet supported by Jup Lend. In particular, stablecoin inflows in Q4 have been driven by PYUSD ($42 million) and Phantom’s CASH ($125 million). Kamino has also been proactive in onboarding DATCO LSTs; most notably dfdvSOL and more recently fwdSOL.



Kamino’s PRIME integration stands out as a catalyst that can bring net new inflows into the money market. PRIME gives users exposure to a regulated credit pool backed by US real estate loans originated and serviced through Figure. This integration effectively gives access to a source of yield uncorrelated from crypto markets that may attract more institutional borrowers.



Wrapping up, Kamino and Jup Lend are obviously competitors, and competition is healthy as it drives innovation and ultimately benefits users. That said, as Solana Foundation’s Lily Liu<a href="https://x.com/calilyliu/status/1997563223193849952?s=20"> noted</a>, instead of fighting with each other, Kamino and Jupiter should focus on growing the pie and capturing market share from other chains and TradFi thereafter. Combined, both money markets still account for less than 10% of Aave’s deposits, and without initiatives like the PRIME integration, it will be impossible to close this gap.



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Analyzing Jup Lend vs. Kamino

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While crypto prices have shown a modest recovery in the short term, negative breadth and relative underperformance to TradFi benchmarks on the monthly suggests a prevailing bearish environment. 



Zooming out, we look at the secular growth trends within stablecoins and lending as durable sectors for multi-year growth.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Crypto markets remain rangebound after November’s harsh selloff. The past week has shown a modest recovery, with BTC at $90,400 now being 12% off of its recent correction low of $80,700. Over the trailing 24 hours, the AI and Modular sectors were the top winners, with TAO (+6.4%)  and TIA (+6.2%) as notable contributors to this short-term strength. The Perp Index was the top loser, with DYDX (-3.1%) and HYPE (-0.6%) accounting for the sector’s weakness. 



<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="720" height="405" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/b89f7e71-0662-4e87-a1ab-377c7de8b679">



Zooming out to the monthly, the picture remains unfavorable. TradFi benchmarks like Gold, Nasdaq and the S&amp;P 500 are all green over the past month, while every crypto index we track is measuring negative returns.



Breadth is decisively negative on the monthly for all crypto indices, with no safe haven provided. Notably, the Protocol Revenue index is the top performing among crypto sectors, suggesting relative strength in protocols with strong fundamental positioning.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1488" height="837" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110344" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=1488 1488w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1488px) 100vw, 1488px" /></figure>



Despite recent strength, it remains to be determined whether this rally is countertrend to a prolonged downtrend, or if the low is in for the rest of 2025.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update</h2>



Amid the downtrend, don’t lose sight of the bigger picture, and take a moment to appreciate just how far we’ve come. At the bear market low, lending applications within DeFi accounted for just $5 billion in deposits, a rounding error within the larger financial system. In the years since, this figure has grown to $71 billion in deposits, having just previously tagged near $100 billion.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110342" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



Similarly, loans outstanding on these applications amounted to $1.6 billion at the bear-market low. Since, active loans have risen to over $27 billion now, and recently passed $38 billion. These figures have grown to a scale worth paying attention to, not just for the crypto native. Variance can cut both ways, to the upside and to the downside, for both key metrics and spot prices. But 20x growth in topline metrics in just a few years suggests this sector is a long way off from its terminal growth rate.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110343" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



Amid the drawdown in crypto prices, the aggregate stablecoin supply has retraced back up to its all-time high of $310 billion, after a brief period of -$10 billion in outflows.&nbsp;



The growth in stablecoins is a trend that I would not bet against. Onchain money markets stand as primary beneficiaries of the growing stablecoin supply, purporting to be the primary applications for utilization. Stablecoin lenders seek yield, while borrowers look for leverage. While spot assets will remain volatile, this secular trend should remain a persistent and durable tailwind for DeFi applications.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110346" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Notably, continued growth in the stablecoin supply comes amid very modest onchain yields. Benchmark supply rates on lending applications are reading 3.6%, a discount to SOFR at 3.9%. Growing depth in onchain stablecoin liquidity may continue to dampen the upside in supply rates, and absent a material risk premium to legacy rates, growth in stablecoin utilization on money markets may falter.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110345" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



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Rangebound markets, resilient onchain lending

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Today, we break down the BTC move over the past week, how ETFs have seen net inflows for the first time in nearly four weeks, and application and chain revenue. We also look into who President Trump&#8217;s next Federal Reserve Chair nominee might be.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



BTC bounced off $85,000 lows, and is back up to $92,000. Over the past three weeks, BTC has increased 5%, with significant volatility throughout. In particular, BTC has been underperforming through the EU session, while outperforming in the US and APAC sessions.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="838" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-58.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110314" style="width:648px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-58.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-58.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-58.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-58.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-58.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-58.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-58.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-58.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-58.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Over the past week, oracles, lending and Ethereum ecosystem tokens performed well, with each up just over 4%. Crypto equities performed the best, up 6.7%, primarily due to outperformance by HOOD.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-62.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110319" style="width:686px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-62.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-62.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-62.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-62.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-62.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-62.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-62.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-62.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-62.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The Nasdaq 100 (+1.70%) and S&amp;P 500 (+0.78%) continue to grind up, while Gold underperforms slightly (-0.85%).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="895" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-65.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110324" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-65.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-65.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-65.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-65.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-65.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-65.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-65.png?w=467 467w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-65.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-65.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-66.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110325" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-66.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-66.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-66.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-66.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-66.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-66.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-66.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-66.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-66.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



In terms of worst-performing, gaming has outperformed significantly toward the downside, with -23% returns over the past week. LGCT was the worst performer, and declined in price by -75% over the past week.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Charts for The Week</h2>



Odds have surged (up to 78% on Kalshi) that Kevin Hassett will be President Trump&#8217;s next Federal Reserve chair nominee, an announcement Trump recently confirmed is imminent. Hassett, a close White House ally, is favored because he aligns with the president&#8217;s demand for much lower interest rates to provide cheaper consumer loans and mortgages.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="825" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-59.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110315" style="width:619px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-59.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-59.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-59.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-59.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-59.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-59.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-59.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-59.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-59.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Bitcoin ETF flows reversed sharply in November, posting significant net outflows after a steady run of inflows from May through October. The month saw roughly $3.46 billion in redemptions, completely erasing the $3.42 billion in new inflows seen last month and the worst outflows since February 2025 ($3.56 billion). The reversal highlights how quickly sentiment deteriorated despite months of strong accumulation. The alignment between ETF flows and price action remained intact, with November’s outflows closely mirroring BTC’s double-digit monthly decline.



The first week of December has been the first positive net inflow week for BTC ETFs since the last week of October, with $70.2 million in net BTC ETF inflows. Ethereum and Solana ETFS have both seen higher net inflows this past week, at $312 million and $108 million, respectively.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-64.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110321" style="width:682px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-64.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-64.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-64.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-64.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-64.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-64.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-64.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-64.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-64.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



In terms of network revenue, we’re seeing similar figures to what we saw the week prior, with Hyperliquid leading the charge with 35% of all network revenues, followed by Tron (20%) and Solana (15%). Noticeably, BNB revenue is still at lows following the highs it put in October, and the majority of that has been captured by Hyperliquid and Solana.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-60.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110317" style="width:715px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-60.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-60.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-60.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-60.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-60.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-60.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-60.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-60.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-60.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Application revenue has stopped declining (now at $38 million, 10% higher than last week), following four weeks of net decline across all tracked applications. Hyperliquid continues to lead the way (35%), followed by pump.fun (25%) and Axiom (8%).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-61.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110318" style="width:740px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-61.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-61.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-61.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-61.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-61.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-61.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-61.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-61.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-61.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Helius’ Lostin and Ichigo proposed SIMD411, which aims to accelerate Solana’s emission schedule by doubling the disinflation rate from -15% to -30%, keeping the 1.5% terminal inflation unchanged. This simple, predictable parameter change would bring inflation from ~4.14% today to 1.5% in ~3.1 years (early 2029), rather than ~6.2 years (early 2032). If implemented, SIMD411 would cut 22.3 million SOL ($2.9 billion) in emissions after six years vs. the current inflation path, reducing the “leaky bucket” sell pressure.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-63.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110320" style="width:753px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-63.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-63.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-63.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-63.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-63.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-63.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-63.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-63.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-63.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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Risk back on the table as crypto ETFs bounce back

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Crypto markets are ending the week on a muted note, with BTC giving back part of its rebound and equities largely flat ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Against this backdrop, Solana ecosystem tokens showed remarkable relative strength.



BTC retraced part of its recent rebound on Thursday, closing down -1.38%, though it remains up nearly 10% from Monday’s $84,000 intraday low. As seen below, the S&amp;P 500 and gold were flat on the day, while the Nasdaq slipped -0.14%.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="898" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110282" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=465 465w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



On the macro front, Kevin Hassett now appears to be the frontrunner for Fed Chair, with Polymarket pricing his nomination at roughly 75%. Currently the Director of the National Economic Council and a close Trump ally, Hassett’s appointment would mark a clear shift toward tighter alignment between Fed policy and the administration’s economic agenda. As for the current Fed, a December rate cut is almost certain just five days ahead of the final FOMC meeting of the year, with the CME FedWatch tool assigning an 87% probability to a 25 bps cut.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110284" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Regarding cross-sector performance, the only three crypto-related indices that were positive on the day were Miners (+6.1%), Solana Eco (+1.8%), and Crypto Equities (+0.9%). Even with Thursday’s bounce, the Miners index is still down 28% over the past 30 days, making it the worst-performing index after Memecoins (-33%).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="902" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110281" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=463 463w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Looking at Solana ecosystem tokens, amongst the top 10 components on our index, CLOUD (Sanctum) was the best-performer yesterday (+13%). The move comes after Forward Industries launched its own LST (fwdSOL) powered by Sanctum earlier this week. Back in May, DeFi Dev Corp. launched dfdvSOL, also using Sanctum’s infrastructure.



Instead of natively staking SOL and losing liquidity, an LST enables Solana DATCOs to earn staking yield while distributing their liquidity into other DeFi applications to expand yield earnings. Working with Sanctum, DATCOs can easily design and deploy their own LSTs to fulfill their mandate of increasing SOL per share. The Forward Industries team has bootstrapped fwdSOL with ~25% of their SOL holdings (represented by over 1.7 million fwdSOL), leading to an all-time high of 13.1 million SOL locked in Sanctum LSTs. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110283" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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Solana tokens see gains amidst weeklong crypto slump

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One of Hyperliquid’s core innovations is builder codes. These codes function as a protocol-level parameter in transaction payloads, allowing interfaces to append a builder address for automated, onchain fee capture. Builders can attach a surcharge of up to 100 basis points (1%) on spot and 10 basis points (0.1%) on perps.



This decoupling of execution from settlement enables frontends to monetize proprietary flow without the technical complexities of maintaining an orderbook or the capital inefficiency of bootstrapping liquidity. As shown below, third-party frontends integrate Hyperliquid perps and add their own variable fee tiers on top, effectively creating a differentiated pricing landscape for the same underlying execution.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-38.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110261" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-38.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-38.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-38.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-38.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-38.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-38.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-38.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-38.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-38.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



As such, builder codes have unlocked a powerful distribution flywheel. Nearly 40% of daily active users now trade through third-party frontends rather than the native UI, a share that briefly crossed 50% in late October. The top three builders alone, Based, Phantom, and pvp.trade, have collectively captured more than $31 million in fees.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-39.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110262" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-39.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-39.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-39.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-39.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-39.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-39.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-39.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-39.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-39.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



From a market structure perspective, this pushes Hyperliquid away from the fully-integrated crypto exchange model and closer to the layered intermediation of traditional equities. In a centralized exchange like Binance, one entity controls the full stack across onboarding, routing, matching and custody.



Hyperliquid’s design mimics the US equity market, where retail brokers (Robinhood, Schwab) own the client relationship and monetize distribution, while routing orders to wholesalers (Citadel Securities, Virtu) that handle execution and settlement. In effect, the stack becomes two-tiered:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>A broker-like distribution layer, where builders compete for order flow and differentiate on product and fee pass-through.</li>



<li>A central execution venue, where Hyperliquid concentrates liquidity and handles matching and margining.</li>
</ul>



While new to crypto perps, this decoupling mechanism has already played out on Solana. Trading terminals like Photon and Axiom controlled the user flow by focusing on the consumer layer. Photon grew first by being the fastest Solana memecoin sniper, while Axiom eventually challenged it with a broader product suite and more aggressive points and rebate designs. These terminals effectively functioned as builders: They sat on top of DEXs, bolted on their own fee markups, and maintained accounting manually. Hyperliquid’s builder codes essentially turn that pattern into a native protocol primitive.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-42.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110265" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-42.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-42.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-42.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-42.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-42.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-42.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-42.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-42.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-42.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



However, the Solana example also highlights the risk. Trading terminals captured 77% of Solana&#8217;s DEX revenue over the past year, $633 million vs. $188 million for DEXs, a 3.4x multiple that highlights that owning the frontend is often more valuable than owning the backend. Specifically, is the frontend too valuable for Hyperliquid to give away?



The relationship between frontends and backends is rarely purely symbiotic. Frontends like Jupiter aggregate various backends (Meteora, Raydium, Orca) and return the best route given size, fees and slippage constraints. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1072" height="494" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-43.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110266" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-43.png?w=1072 1072w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-43.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-43.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-43.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-43.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-43.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-43.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-43.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1072px) 100vw, 1072px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://jup.ag/">Source: Jupiter Frontend Aggregation Example</a></figcaption></figure>







This forces DEX backends into severe margin compression. With zero moat, they must be the cheapest route to win flow. Since they don&#8217;t own the user, backends are also at risk of replacement. We see this when pump.fun replaced Raydium as its liquidity backend with its own in-house AMM, significantly impacting Raydium&#8217;s volume share.&nbsp;



Right now, Hyperliquid does not face this problem. By pioneering builder codes on perps, it is effectively a singular-builder code environment. However, if builders evolve from a UI on top of HL into true routers that can send flow to competing backends, they start to resemble a smart-order router in traditional finance. In this scenario, builders can:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Optimize all-in cost: Calculate spread/slippage + taker/maker fees + builder surcharge − rebates + expected funding.</li>



<li>Bargain with venues: Demand higher builder shares or rebates with the threat of routing flow elsewhere.</li>



<li>Capture the user relationship: While venues are forced to compete purely to be the cheapest, best-execution wholesale liquidity provider.</li>
</ul>



Similarly, in traditional finance, wholesalers compete with broker-dealers for volume. Robinhood routes to Citadel Securities, Virtu, and Jane Street based on which provides the best execution and payment for order flow.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1318" height="748" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-40.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110263" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-40.png?w=1318 1318w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-40.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-40.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-40.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-40.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-40.png?w=460 460w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-40.png?w=386 386w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-40.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1318px) 100vw, 1318px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2024080pap.pdf">Source</a></figcaption></figure>







While rival DEXs like Drift and Ostium have integrated builder codes, none have emerged as genuine competitors to date. However, a significant structural risk remains: If a venue like Lighter were to pair builder rebates with its zero-fee model, it could theoretically allow wallets like Phantom and Rabby to bypass Hyperliquid’s 4.5 bps fee. This would enable frontends to capture the entire fee stack, effectively doubling their revenue per trade compared to the current Hyperliquid model.&nbsp;



<a href="https://docs.tryliquid.xyz/trading/trading">LiquidTrading</a> serves as a leading indicator of this future. The Paradigm-backed terminal, which raised $7.6 million in its seed round, has facilitated $5.6 billion in volume on Hyperliquid. But crucially, it also allows users to trade on Ostium and Lighter via the same interface. If larger builders follow this path and begin actively routing flow based on venue rebates rather than loyalty, Hyperliquid builder frontends could evolve into a commoditized perp aggregator, directly threatening the protocol&#8217;s ability to capture value.



Still, there is a fundamental difference. Spot is easy to aggregate because each swap is atomic and the asset is fungible across venues. One transaction equals one fill, and a router can seamlessly split a trade across multiple pools. However, with perps, positions are persistent and venue-specific. A BTC-PERP position on Venue A is not fungible with a BTC-PERP position on Venue B due to differences in index composition, funding rates, liquidation engines and risk limits.



To route perps across venues meaningfully, the market needs one of two difficult solutions:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>User fragmentation: Users must keep collateral on multiple venues, which is capital inefficient and results in poor UX.</li>



<li>Prime brokerage layers: The router must act like a clearing layer, solving the hard problems of credit extension, cross-margining and liquidation coordination.</li>
</ul>



While non-fungibility offers a short-term defense, the harsh reality is that frontends are rational economic actors; they will migrate if a competitor offers superior margins. Yet, the data suggests this threat is currently contained. Despite the high user counts on third-party interfaces, the vast majority of volume, over 90%, still originates from Hyperliquid’s native frontend.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-41.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110264" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-41.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-41.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-41.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-41.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-41.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-41.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-41.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-41.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-41.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Furthermore, the HYPE token adds a retention layer. Builders can hold HYPE to access fee discounts, allowing them to stack revenue streams: referrals, builder fees, and volume-based discounts. With this, the cost of switching for incrementally better fees may not be worth it for existing frontends. Finally, the flow coming from builders appears to be additive rather than cannibalistic. These are new users entering the ecosystem via wallets and terminals, not users switching interfaces.&nbsp;



Therefore, while builder codes offer an effective expansion vector, expecting Hyperliquid to maintain total dominance over its distribution layer is unrealistic. As the sector matures, Hyperliquid will face a tougher grind to defend its lead against aggregators and low fee competitors. However, building a performant onchain orderbook remains an immense technical moat, and with frontend margins remaining healthy, the incentives for builders to switch are low. Still, in a rapidly expanding market, this is not a battle to retain volume, but rather a more competitive race for growth where Hyperliquid remains the heavyweight to beat.



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