Kunal Doshi

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It was a mixed week for crypto, with BTC ending higher but sharp divergence across sectors. DePIN and Gaming led a surprising rebound after a rough year, while L2s, RWAs and the treasury trade continued to grind lower as flows stayed choppy. 



To add some insight to the new year, we’ve rounded up some weekend reads on stablecoin yield, payments infrastructure, interoperability and last year’s fastest-moving narratives.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h1>



With a shortened equity trading week due to the holidays, the focus shifts to crypto performance over the past week. BTC finished the week up 1.6%, though performance across altcoins remains highly fragmented.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1177" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110723" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=1177 1177w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-5.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1177px) 100vw, 1177px" /></figure>



The biggest movers may come as a surprise. DePIN and Gaming led all sectors with gains of 13.1% and 12.6%, respectively. These have been two of the weakest performers in 2025, down -79.5% and -81.3% on the year, making the rebound notable.



DePIN strength was driven by FIL and RENDER, which rose 22% and 13% on the week and together account for 49% of the index. Gaming followed a similar pattern, with IMX up 11%, doing most of the heavy lifting for the sector.



On the downside, L2s and RWAs lagged, falling -2.67% and -0.84% over the week. L2 weakness was led by MNT and ZORA, down -5.7% and -6.4%. At the same time, other L2 names such as OP, ARB, and ZK posted gains between 10% and 20%, highlighting sharp divergence within the sector. RWAs were pressured by a pullback in Gold after its strong run this year, with PAXG and XAUT both down around -3.4%.



Flows remain choppy. On Dec. 31, ETFs saw $417.8 million of outflows, nearly offsetting the $428.2 million of inflows recorded the day prior.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="951" height="366" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110718" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=951 951w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 951px) 100vw, 951px" /></figure>



Digital asset treasuries continue to feel the strain, with mNAV multiples compressing further. MSTR and BMNR now trade at mNAV levels of 0.69 and 0.85, underscoring the pressure on the treasury trade as the new year begins.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110721" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Recommended end-of-year analyses</h2>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/neutrl-unlocking-institutional-otc-yield-for-stablecoins">Neutrl: Unlocking Institutional OTC Yield for Stablecoins</a></h4>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1409" height="781" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110724" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=1409 1409w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-6.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1409px) 100vw, 1409px" /></figure>



<a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/neutrl-unlocking-institutional-otc-yield-for-stablecoins">Blockworks Research finds</a> that Neutrl brings institutional-grade OTC arbitrage into a stablecoin wrapper, offering market neutral yields that are less reliant on funding cycles than existing synthetic dollars. Early traction and double-digit sNUSD yields suggest strong demand, supported by deep token unlock pipelines and privileged OTC access via STIX. The core upside rests on scalable deployment into hedged OTC deals, while risks center on execution, counterparty performance and liquidity management. If yields hold as TVL grows, Neutrl could mirror early Ethena dynamics in a more structurally defensive form. 



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://polaris.fund/articles/crypto-card-moats">Crypto Card Moats</a></h4>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="866" height="468" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110722" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=866 866w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-4.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 866px) 100vw, 866px" /></figure>



<a href="https://polaris.fund/articles/crypto-card-moats">Polaris Fund finds</a> that crypto cards and neobanks have reached a real inflection point where value is shifting away from rewards and branding toward infrastructure, compliance and liquidity control. The analysis shows that durable moats come from owning primitives like regulated access, programmable liquidity and deep integrations, not cashbacks. Infra rail providers and DeFi native card models capture the most leverage through recurring fees and aligned economics, while CeFi distributors face margin compression. As regulation tightens, scale will increasingly favor players that control licensing, settlement and compliance workflows rather than consumer-facing incentives.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://layerzero.network/blog/25-stats-explaining-how-crypto-accelerated-in-2025">25 Stats Explaining How LayerZero Accelerated Crypto in 2025</a></h4>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="695" height="383" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110720" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=695 695w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 695px) 100vw, 695px" /></figure>



<a href="https://layerzero.network/blog/25-stats-explaining-how-crypto-accelerated-in-2025">LayerZero finds</a> that 2025 marked the shift of interoperability from a theory into core infrastructure for crypto. Data shows tokenized assets and stablecoins increasingly distributed across many chains, with interoperability accelerating asset velocity, capital mobility and global access. Rather than chains competing in isolation, crypto now functions as a connected network where value moves freely to where demand exists. Adoption of message-based transfers and open primitives reduced costs and friction, making cross-chain activity feel more like software than finance. Interoperability is no longer the bottleneck, but the default layer enabling scale.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://reports.tiger-research.com/p/2025-recap-eng?triedRedirect=true">2025: The Year Narratives Moved Too Fast</a></h4>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="595" height="508" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110719" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=595 595w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=301 301w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=306 306w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=257 257w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-1.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 595px) 100vw, 595px" /></figure>



<a href="https://reports.tiger-research.com/p/2025-recap-eng?triedRedirect=true">Tiger Research finds</a> that 2025 was defined by rapid narrative cycles that generated attention faster than they could be validated, leading to widespread fatigue and skepticism. Most narratives faded quickly, but a subset translated into real use cases that pushed the market forward, particularly where retail access was simple and intuitive. Memecoins showed how quickly users can onboard, but also how fragile engagement is without retention. Experiments like InfoFi highlighted incentive-driven growth but exposed quality and trust issues. The clearest progress came where crypto demonstrated product-market fit, including stablecoins, prediction markets and payment rails, showing that durable value emerges only when narratives align with real utility.



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0xResearch Newsletter

DePIN and crypto gaming led a surprising end-of-year rebound

Carlos

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It’s been a slow week with Christmas, and traditional markets were closed yesterday. BTC slipped slightly (-0.4%) on muted volumes across the board, reflecting the broader holiday lull. With price action quiet, it’s a good moment to step back, reflect on 2025, and think about 2026 positioning.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="858" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110612" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-167.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Bitcoin has underperformed stock benchmarks this year, but its performance vs. gold and silver is even more striking. In hindsight, those two will likely be remembered as the standout assets of 2025, a surprising outcome if you’d predicted it at the start of the year. Gold is having its best year since 1979, up around 72% year to date and recently breaking out to new all-time highs above $4,500 an ounce. Silver has done even better, rallying nearly 160% year to date and about 45% in the past month alone, reaching a record ~$75 an ounce yesterday.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="852" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110613" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-168.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Looking ahead, 2026 could present compelling opportunities in liquid tokens. Many quality DeFi names are trading near multi-year lows, even as fundamentals and forward-looking growth remain strong. Crucially, value capture has flipped from infrastructure to applications: On Solana, for example, apps now generate roughly 3x the revenue of the network. The key question for investors is whether, and when, valuations will start to reflect this new reality.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1234" height="684" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110615" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=1234 1234w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-170.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1234px) 100vw, 1234px" /></figure>



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Gold and silver won 2025

Shaunda Devens

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Today’s coverage takes stock of where capital actually went as we move through the end of the year. First, we start with index readings that show a continued rotation into large, proven crypto infrastructure while speculative sectors continue to unwind. Then we quantify the damage across 2025 token launches.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Bitcoin was essentially flat over the past week (+0.3%), underperforming traditional benchmarks — NASDAQ (+1.7%), Gold (+1.1%), and S&amp;P 500 (+0.9%). The divergence accelerated mid-week around Dec. 18, when most crypto sectors sold off sharply while equities held steady, suggesting a crypto-specific risk-off move rather than broader macro weakness.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="863" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110579" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-146.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



DEXs (+11%) led all indices, followed by Crypto Miners (+9.5%) and the 2025 Crypto Equity Cohort (+9.2%). DEX outperformance was driven by UNI up +15.4%, following the <a href="https://vote.uniswapfoundation.org/proposals/93">UNIfication vote</a> live onchain, with 69M UNI (40M quorum) voting yes. L1s (-2%) and Exchange Tokens (-2.2%) posted modest losses.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110578" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-145.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



AI was the worst-performing sector (-21%), driven largely by TAO (-21%). TAO weakness likely reflects a sell-the-news unwind around Bittensor’s first halving (around Dec. 14), which cut daily issuance in half but did not immediately translate into incremental demand, alongside broader de-risking across the AI token complex.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Negative returns on new tokens</h2>



With year-end approaching, it’s worth zooming out on 2025’s worst tape: new token launches. A recent <a href="https://x.com/ahboyash/status/2002363360327704834">post by Ahboyash</a> put hard numbers behind what many felt intuitively. Across 117 tokens launched in 2025, returns are overwhelmingly negative. The median token is down ~71% versus its listing fully diluted valuation (FDV). Only 17/117 (15%) trade above launch valuation, while roughly 40% are down more than 80%.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1188" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110581" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1188 1188w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=414 414w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=420 420w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1188px) 100vw, 1188px" /></figure>



The downside is both broad and severe: 100/117 tokens (85%) are underwater. Losses cluster most heavily in the 50–90% drawdown range, which represents the largest share of launches.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1188" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110580" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=1188 1188w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=414 414w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=420 420w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-148.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1188px) 100vw, 1188px" /></figure>



At the extreme tail, 15 tokens have declined more than 90%, including high-profile launches such as Berachain (-93%), Animecoin (-94%), and Bio Protocol (-93%).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1188" height="738" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110582" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1188 1188w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=414 414w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=420 420w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-147.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1188px) 100vw, 1188px" /></figure>



In aggregate, the cohort’s total FDV has compressed from $139 billion at listing to $54 billion today, implying roughly $87 billion (59%) of “paper” FDV destruction, excluding any projects that effectively went to zero.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="692" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110583" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-149.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The dispersion on the right tail is real, but concentrated. The worst performers skew toward infrastructure and gaming, with Syndicate (-93.6%) and Animecoin (-93.6%) among the laggards. Meanwhile, the standout winners are largely later-stage, H2 launches with lower starting valuations, including Aster (+745%), Yooldo Games (+538%), and Humanity (+323%).



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The year new tokens died

Luke Leasure

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Crypto and risk assets continue to show weakness heading into year-end, not adding to the holiday spirit. Risk assets are in search of a floor, driven by fundamental flows supported by ETFs or protocol buybacks.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



This week closes out with continued weakness across the board, and in crypto risk in particular. Both the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 moved over a -1% lower this week, with gold being the one instrument showing strength. Concurrently, every crypto index we track has traded lower throughout the week. Notably, exchange tokens, buyback leaders, and the 2025 crypto equity cohort outperformed BTC intra-week, while everything else underperformed. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1488" height="837" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110565" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=1488 1488w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-143.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1488px) 100vw, 1488px" /></figure>



The AI sector was the top loser on the week, trading down -26%. The downside was led by TAO, which notched new multi-month lows after being a top performer in October.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1488" height="837" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110566" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=1488 1488w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-144.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1488px) 100vw, 1488px" /></figure>



Broadly, crypto continues its downtrend, with majors like BTC, ETH and SOL showing weakness while longer tail alts make larger moves to the downside. Risk is in search of a fundamental floor, which still may remain lower until price/buybacks becomes too compelling, and buyback flows from these protocol cashflows can set a low. Similarly, majors may need an uptick in ETF inflows to set their low, while the support provided by these vehicles has been anemic in the weeks past.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Weekend Reading</h2>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://substack.com/home/post/p-181521558">Taking a Step Back to Step Forward</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1506" height="1102" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110570" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=1506 1506w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=351 351w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=357 357w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=299 299w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-3.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1506px) 100vw, 1506px" /></figure>



Michael W. Green published a blog post titled “Taking a Step Back to Step Forward” that reframes US economic precarity through a structural and mathematical lens. Drawing on Ole Peters’ “Equation of Life,” Green argues that wealth naturally concentrates without redistribution (τ &lt; 0), leading to systemic inequality. He critiques distorted CPI measures, technocratic complacency, and housing scarcity as mechanisms of economic extraction. With credit spreads artificially tight despite rising defaults, he warns of financial fragility. Green calls for civic engagement and institutional accountability, setting the stage for further essays and political interviews focused on systemic reform. <a href="https://substack.com/home/post/p-181521558">Read more</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://forum.sky.money/t/annual-state-of-sky-ecosystem-2025/27554">Annual State of Sky Ecosystem</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="690" height="387" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-110568" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=690 690w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=465 465w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-1.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px" /></figure>



Sky Frontier Foundation published a research report titled “Annual State of Sky Ecosystem” outlining the protocol’s major achievements and financial growth in 2025. The Sky Ecosystem saw an 86% increase in USDS supply (to $9.86B), outpacing the broader stablecoin market. Sky Protocol generated $435M in revenue and $168M in profits, with substantial SKY token buybacks and staking rewards. With new regulatory clarity via the GENIUS Act and multiple Sky Agent launches, the report projects strong institutional adoption and protocol expansion in 2026, positioning Sky as a leader in decentralized, yield-bearing stablecoins. <a href="https://forum.sky.money/t/annual-state-of-sky-ecosystem-2025/27554">Read more</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://x.com/malekanoms/status/2001303930379128954">Beware the Lofty Promises of TradFi Firms Embracing Tokenization</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="680" height="272" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-110567" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=680 680w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px" /></figure>



Omid Malekan published a blog post titled “Beware the Lofty Promises of TradFi Firms Embracing Tokenization” that critiques traditional financial institutions (DTCC, Visa, SWIFT, Stripe, PayPal) for selectively embracing blockchain benefits while ignoring its existential threats to their legacy business models. Malekan argues these firms tout tokenization, but avoid decentralization, risking co-opting crypto’s core values. He warns that permissioned chains and regulatory lobbying may dilute crypto’s foundational principles. While he advocates engagement with TradFi, he urges the crypto community to defend public, permissionless networks and resist compromising decentralization for mainstream adoption. 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://x.com/DeFi_Cheetah/status/2000575887352488085">Not ‘No One Wants Non‑USD Stables’ — It’s ‘No Banks Want Non‑USD Inventory’</a></h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="680" height="272" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-110569" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=680 680w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-2.jpeg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px" /></figure>



@DeFi_Cheetah on X published an article post titled “It’s Not ‘No One Wants Non‑USD Stables’ — It’s ‘No Banks Want Non‑USD Inventory’” arguing that the real barrier to non-USD stablecoin adoption is not demand, but structural limitations in the global banking system. The piece dissects how Basel III regulations, liquidity constraints, and G-SIB penalties discourage banks from holding non-USD inventories or servicing emerging market corridors. The result is a liquidity vacuum in non-USD FX markets. The author calls for DeFi-native solutions to bootstrap non-USD stable liquidity, warning that relying on traditional FX infrastructure will fail by design. <a href="https://x.com/DeFi_Cheetah/status/2000575887352488085">Read more</a>



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Grinch rally: Crypto indices track lower through the week

Marc Arjoon

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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As dispersion continues, this week has pointed to concrete shifts rather than narrative noise. Aerodrome’s net income moved toward breakeven as emissions fell in line with revenue, while USDai’s TVL showed stepwise growth. At the same time, tokenized assets continued to scale across credit, Treasurys and commodities, while new trading infrastructure, from ultra-low latency chains (Fogo) to equity perpetuals, pushed closer to traditional market benchmarks.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets leaned risk-off over the past week, with dispersion widening across both traditional and digital assets. BTC slipped (-2.3%) while the Nasdaq 100 (-2.1%) and S&amp;P 500 (-0.7%) also closed lower, reflecting a softening risk backdrop. Gold (+2.3%) stood out as one of the few macro hedge bids, suggesting incremental rotation toward defensives as positioning reset into year-end.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110460" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-109.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Crypto sector indices told a sharper story. On the upside, Memecoins (+16.0%) and L2s (+9.7%) dominated weekly gains, pointing to short-term speculative flows and demonstrating renewed optimism around scaling narratives and higher beta players. AI (+1.3%), Lending (+1.0%), and Ethereum Ecosystem (+0.9%) also managed modest green prints. In contrast, weakness was pronounced across Solana Ecosystem (-10.5%), DePIN (-7.1%), RWAs (-7.0%), and Crypto Miners (-5.4%), underscoring pressure on structurally levered or capex-heavy themes. Launchpads (-2.3%) and DEXs (-2.8%) also lagged as volumes cooled.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110453" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-102.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



While the L2 sector outperformed this week, under the hood, dispersion was notable. <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/merl">MERL</a> was the standout, ripping higher into the week’s close and finishing well north of its peers. <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/mnt">MNT</a> also saw strong relative strength, grinding steadily higher and holding gains even as the rest of the complex chopped sideways. OP and ARB tracked closer to the index average, posting modest gains but failing to show the same upside convexity. On the lagging end, BLAST remained the clear underperformer, trending lower throughout the week.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110454" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-104.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Charts for The Week</h2>



Aerodrome’s weekly net income (protocol revenue minus token emissions) is <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/flashnotes/aero-merger-update-metadex03-and-cross-chain-expansion">transitioning</a> from a prolonged period of heavy losses to near breakeven and occasional profitability. Throughout most of 2024, emissions materially exceeded revenue, with weekly net losses reaching as much as ~$20 million at the trough, reflecting aggressive liquidity incentives. However, starting in early 2025, losses narrowed sharply as emissions declined and revenue stabilized, with recent weeks oscillating around zero and turning modestly positive at times. This inflection supports the view that Aerodrome’s unit economics are improving, with protocol revenue now broadly keeping pace with emissions for the first sustained period since launch.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110457" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-106.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



USDai’s TVL trajectory reflects a classic step-function adoption curve consistent with institutional balance sheet deployment rather than organic retail inflows. TVL accelerated sharply in September as several large capital allocations entered the system. The discrete jumps suggest tranche-based deployments tied to predefined mandates. The plateauing of TVL above ~$550 million into November implies capital stickiness and low redemption pressure, reinforcing the view that USDai is functioning as a balance sheet instrument rather than a pure trading vehicle.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110458" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-107.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Tokenization has evolved from a niche experiment to a strategic priority for global financial institutions. Today’s tokenized asset market is composed of $300 billion in stablecoins, $17.4 billion in private credit, $8.2 billion in US government debt, $2.3 billion in commodities, and $1.4 billion in public equities. Estimates underscore the scale of this shift. A report by BCG and ADDX projects that up to $16 trillion of real-world assets could be tokenized by 2030, spanning public equities, private markets, real estate and debt instruments. Similarly, Citi forecasts $4-5 trillion in tokenized digital securities and an additional $5 trillion in tokenized trade finance volume over the same period.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110459" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-108.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



<a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/fogo-testnet-traction-and-mainnet-readiness">Fogo</a> stands out with industry-leading 40ms block times and ~1-second finality, delivering materially faster execution than Solana’s 400ms blocks and far superior responsiveness compared to Ethereum’s multi-minute finality. While Hyperliquid and Solana post higher peak TPS figures on paper, Fogo’s combination of ultra-low latency and sub-second finality positions it closer to traditional financial market infrastructure, reinforcing its thesis as an institutional-grade trading chain rather than a broad consumer L1.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110455" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-103.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Outside of Root, the top nine subnets currently hold ~44% of all <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/bittensor-positioning-for-the-post-halving-repricing">TAO staked</a> across subnets and receive 37.4% of TAO emissions. This concentration has been steadily declining from a high of ~52% in May 2025 as more TAO flows into smaller or emerging subnets. The trend suggests a gradual broadening of participation and a healthier distribution of stake over time.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110456" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-105.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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Capital gets selective

Boccaccio

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Markets leaned cautiously risk-on, with crypto outperforming a mixed backdrop in traditional assets. ETF flows had their biggest one-day surge since October as CPI, Treasury auctions and a dense FOMC week could reset risk appetite. In addition, we discuss the new WET token, the native token of the HumidiFi prop AMM.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets leaned risk-on, with crypto leading and traditional assets mixed. BTC posted a modest gain (+2.3%), outperforming equities where the S&amp;P 500 (-0.3%) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.2%) softened, while Gold held nearly flat (+0.3%). The standout laggard was the Perp Index, which contracted by -5.1%.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110386" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-80.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Perps (-5.1%) were the day’s clear laggard, weighed down by a sharp intraday spike-and-fade across dYdX, GMX, and specifically HYPE. A midday squeeze briefly lifted the sector before momentum stalled and flows reversed into the close. JUP rose as much as 9% before retracing most of its gains. Meanwhile, HYPE has been struggling as of late, as builder codes create new frontend relationships with users, and the market anticipates a TGE from <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lighter-opens-public-mainnet">rival Lighter</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110378" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-79.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Looking ahead, markets will pivot toward this week’s CPI print and a slate of mid-week Treasury auctions, both of which could reset risk appetite. With implied volatility still suppressed across majors, any macro surprise risks producing outsized moves.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update&nbsp;</h2>



Flows finally turned meaningfully positive. BTC ETFs drove the bulk of the move ($287 million), ETH had its best day since Oct. 28 ($142 million) and SOL contributed marginally ($16 million). This is the first clean signal of risk appetite returning after nearly a month of choppy to negative prints. The flow spike likely reflects short-term positioning ahead of catalysts such as FOMC, inflation data, and jobs. It can also be attributed to quarter-end optics, as allocators often re-express benchmark exposure into liquid wrappers during macro-heavy weeks.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110376" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-77.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Still, AUM-to-market-cap ratios tell a different story. BTC remains stuck near ~6.6–6.8%, ETH continues its multi-month slide from ~3.3% to ~2.8%, and SOL, while rising, sits just under 1%. This divergence implies that price appreciation, not sticky inflows, has been the dominant force maintaining ETF sizes.



Meanwhile, BTC’s inflow looks more like tactical re-risking than renewed conviction. Derivatives markets show elevated basis but falling perp OI, a sign that capital currently prefers directional spot exposure over leverage.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110375" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-75.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



ETF flows are becoming increasingly important for BTC, because traditional “DATCO” buyers aren’t carrying the bid anymore. The latest treasury holdings data shows that, aside from Strategy (MSTR), corporate accumulation has been effectively flat for months. Names like NAKAMOTO, SMLR, SQNS, and the smaller treasury cohorts have added marginal amounts at best, contributing almost nothing to incremental demand. Even MSTR can’t continue to accumulate in the same way it did before.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110377" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-76.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



This is especially true as the major BTC DATCOs have mNAVs below 1, removing the once BTC-accretive play of diluting shareholders. In other words, the corporate balance sheet bid that helped define the prior cycle and earlier in this cycle isn’t showing up any time soon for BTC.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110379" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-78.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



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ETFs flash a bid, HumidiFi tokenizes

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While crypto prices have shown a modest recovery in the short term, negative breadth and relative underperformance to TradFi benchmarks on the monthly suggests a prevailing bearish environment. 



Zooming out, we look at the secular growth trends within stablecoins and lending as durable sectors for multi-year growth.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Crypto markets remain rangebound after November’s harsh selloff. The past week has shown a modest recovery, with BTC at $90,400 now being 12% off of its recent correction low of $80,700. Over the trailing 24 hours, the AI and Modular sectors were the top winners, with TAO (+6.4%)  and TIA (+6.2%) as notable contributors to this short-term strength. The Perp Index was the top loser, with DYDX (-3.1%) and HYPE (-0.6%) accounting for the sector’s weakness. 



<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="720" height="405" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/b89f7e71-0662-4e87-a1ab-377c7de8b679">



Zooming out to the monthly, the picture remains unfavorable. TradFi benchmarks like Gold, Nasdaq and the S&amp;P 500 are all green over the past month, while every crypto index we track is measuring negative returns.



Breadth is decisively negative on the monthly for all crypto indices, with no safe haven provided. Notably, the Protocol Revenue index is the top performing among crypto sectors, suggesting relative strength in protocols with strong fundamental positioning.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1488" height="837" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110344" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=1488 1488w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-70.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1488px) 100vw, 1488px" /></figure>



Despite recent strength, it remains to be determined whether this rally is countertrend to a prolonged downtrend, or if the low is in for the rest of 2025.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update</h2>



Amid the downtrend, don’t lose sight of the bigger picture, and take a moment to appreciate just how far we’ve come. At the bear market low, lending applications within DeFi accounted for just $5 billion in deposits, a rounding error within the larger financial system. In the years since, this figure has grown to $71 billion in deposits, having just previously tagged near $100 billion.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110342" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-69.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



Similarly, loans outstanding on these applications amounted to $1.6 billion at the bear-market low. Since, active loans have risen to over $27 billion now, and recently passed $38 billion. These figures have grown to a scale worth paying attention to, not just for the crypto native. Variance can cut both ways, to the upside and to the downside, for both key metrics and spot prices. But 20x growth in topline metrics in just a few years suggests this sector is a long way off from its terminal growth rate.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110343" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-68.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



Amid the drawdown in crypto prices, the aggregate stablecoin supply has retraced back up to its all-time high of $310 billion, after a brief period of -$10 billion in outflows.&nbsp;



The growth in stablecoins is a trend that I would not bet against. Onchain money markets stand as primary beneficiaries of the growing stablecoin supply, purporting to be the primary applications for utilization. Stablecoin lenders seek yield, while borrowers look for leverage. While spot assets will remain volatile, this secular trend should remain a persistent and durable tailwind for DeFi applications.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110346" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-72.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Notably, continued growth in the stablecoin supply comes amid very modest onchain yields. Benchmark supply rates on lending applications are reading 3.6%, a discount to SOFR at 3.9%. Growing depth in onchain stablecoin liquidity may continue to dampen the upside in supply rates, and absent a material risk premium to legacy rates, growth in stablecoin utilization on money markets may falter.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110345" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-71.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



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Rangebound markets, resilient onchain lending

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Crypto markets are ending the week on a muted note, with BTC giving back part of its rebound and equities largely flat ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Against this backdrop, Solana ecosystem tokens showed remarkable relative strength.



BTC retraced part of its recent rebound on Thursday, closing down -1.38%, though it remains up nearly 10% from Monday’s $84,000 intraday low. As seen below, the S&amp;P 500 and gold were flat on the day, while the Nasdaq slipped -0.14%.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="898" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110282" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=465 465w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-45.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



On the macro front, Kevin Hassett now appears to be the frontrunner for Fed Chair, with Polymarket pricing his nomination at roughly 75%. Currently the Director of the National Economic Council and a close Trump ally, Hassett’s appointment would mark a clear shift toward tighter alignment between Fed policy and the administration’s economic agenda. As for the current Fed, a December rate cut is almost certain just five days ahead of the final FOMC meeting of the year, with the CME FedWatch tool assigning an 87% probability to a 25 bps cut.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110284" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-47.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Regarding cross-sector performance, the only three crypto-related indices that were positive on the day were Miners (+6.1%), Solana Eco (+1.8%), and Crypto Equities (+0.9%). Even with Thursday’s bounce, the Miners index is still down 28% over the past 30 days, making it the worst-performing index after Memecoins (-33%).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="902" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110281" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=463 463w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-44.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Looking at Solana ecosystem tokens, amongst the top 10 components on our index, CLOUD (Sanctum) was the best-performer yesterday (+13%). The move comes after Forward Industries launched its own LST (fwdSOL) powered by Sanctum earlier this week. Back in May, DeFi Dev Corp. launched dfdvSOL, also using Sanctum’s infrastructure.



Instead of natively staking SOL and losing liquidity, an LST enables Solana DATCOs to earn staking yield while distributing their liquidity into other DeFi applications to expand yield earnings. Working with Sanctum, DATCOs can easily design and deploy their own LSTs to fulfill their mandate of increasing SOL per share. The Forward Industries team has bootstrapped fwdSOL with ~25% of their SOL holdings (represented by over 1.7 million fwdSOL), leading to an all-time high of 13.1 million SOL locked in Sanctum LSTs. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110283" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-46.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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Solana tokens see gains amidst weeklong crypto slump

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Markets continued to claw back losses from Monday’s selloff, with BTC, the S&amp;P 500, and the Nasdaq up 2.52%, 0.22%, and 0.05%, respectively, yesterday. Even safe haven gold has given back some gains and is down -0.12% on the day as risk appetite improves.



The uptick came after a surprise <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/adp-employment-change">decline</a> in private sector employment. Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November, compared with expectations for job growth. This pushed the <a href="https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor">odds</a> of a rate cut next week to 85%, up from 80% a week ago. Microsoft dragged on the Nasdaq, falling more than -2% after reports that the company has <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/gurufocus:6c14c4ac7094b:0-microsoft-stock-falls-amid-slow-corporate-adoption-of-ai-solutions/">lowered</a> AI software sales quotas due to softer than expected demand.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1174" height="628" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-34.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110254" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-34.png?w=1174 1174w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-34.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-34.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-34.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-34.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-34.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-34.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-34.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1174px) 100vw, 1174px" /></figure>



Across crypto sectors, most indices finished in the green except Gaming, which fell -1.65%. Gaming has been one of the weakest performers this year and is down -77% year to date. Memes, typically the most reflexive sector during market rebounds, also lagged with a modest 1.24% gain. The index was weighed down by PUMP and PENGU, which fell -2.54% and -1.80%, respectively, on the day.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1169" height="625" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-35.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110255" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-35.png?w=1169 1169w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-35.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-35.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-35.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-35.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-35.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-35.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-35.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1169px) 100vw, 1169px" /></figure>



On the upside, the AI sector led the market with a 7.46% gain. TAO continues to drive the index higher and climbed 7.6% ahead of its halving next week. L1s followed with a 6.45% move, powered by ETH and BNB, which make up 63% of the index and were up 6.6% and 5.2%, respectively.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="950" height="365" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-31.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110251" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-31.png?w=950 950w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-31.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-31.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-31.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-31.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-31.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-31.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px" /></figure>



Flows tell a more cautious story. After five days of inflows, BTC ETF flows turned negative again with a modest -$14.9 million in outflows. ETH ETFs, however, saw a strong rebound with $140.2 million of inflows after two days of declines earlier in the week. Even so, flows have yet to show real conviction when set against the -$4.4 billion in net outflows seen across November.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update: Monad</h2>



Now that we are about one and a half weeks past the Monad TGE, it is a good moment to step back and assess how the chain is actually performing post launch. After a strong initial rally, MON has cooled off and is down -28% on the week, leaving it up a modest 16% from its ICO price. On the ecosystem side, DeFi TVL continues to climb and now sits at <a href="https://defillama.com/chain/monad">$277.5 million</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-37.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110257" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-37.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-37.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-37.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-37.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-37.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-37.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-37.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-37.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-37.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



A large portion of that TVL is concentrated in AUSD. Around <a href="https://defillama.com/stablecoin/agora-dollar">$144 million</a> of the $277.5 million sits inside Agora’s stablecoin, which is being farmed across various protocols to earn ecosystem incentives. Upshift holds $73 million and is deploying AUSD across DeFi protocols such as Morpho, Uniswap and Euler. Morpho currently offers 4.5% APY on AUSD and 5.98% on USDC, with most of the yield coming from <a href="https://app.morpho.org/monad/earn">MON incentives</a> rather than organic borrow demand. Incentives are an acceptable way to jump start early liquidity, but the real test will be whether Monad can attract DeFi applications that generate sustainable, organic yield once the incentive fire hose tapers off.



Looking at native apps, Nad.fun has been the breakout leader in both accounts and transactions since day one. It is Monad’s native memecoin launchpad, but its staying power is not guaranteed. Only <a href="https://nad.fun/">two tokens</a> launched there have crossed the $1 million market cap mark. Even Chog, the chain’s first community token, is <a href="https://nad.fun/tokens/0x350035555E10d9AfAF1566AaebfCeD5BA6C27777">down</a> more than 65% from its highs and sits at $4.5 million today. Not exactly the early momentum you would want for a vibrant meme ecosystem.



Other homegrown projects are <a href="https://monadvision.com/ecosystem?day=1D">gaining</a> traction. FastLane has become the primary LST on Monad. Pinot Finance is emerging as an alternative DEX to Uniswap. Lumiterra, an MMORPG, has quietly put up strong usage numbers and <a href="https://monadvision.com/ecosystem?day=1D">ranked</a> third by accounts and second by transactions yesterday.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1332" height="602" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-33.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110253" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-33.png?w=1332 1332w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-33.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-33.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-33.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-33.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-33.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-33.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-33.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1332px) 100vw, 1332px" /></figure>



On the chain level, activity looks promising for a network this early. Monad generated $100,000 in fees over the last seven days, placing it ahead of chains like Avalanche and Ton. <a href="https://monad.socialscan.io/charts/tx">Daily transactions</a> and <a href="https://monad.socialscan.io/charts/active-address">active addresses</a> have been hovering around 2.2 million and 117,000, respectively. These are respectable metrics for a chain that just came out of the gate.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1599" height="432" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-32.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110252" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-32.png?w=1599 1599w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-32.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-32.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-32.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-32.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-32.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-32.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-32.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-32.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1599px) 100vw, 1599px" /></figure>



But one data point stands out. WormholeScan shows that 75% of the assets bridged into Monad have already flowed back out to other chains. That is an early sign that users may be farming and rotating rather than sticking around.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="728" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-36.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110256" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-36.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-36.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-36.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-36.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-36.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-36.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-36.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-36.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-36.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



For Monad, the next phase is all about conversion. Can the chain turn early speculative inflows into sticky liquidity and real economic activity? The charts above are the ones I’ll be watching closely to see whether this ecosystem can turn early hype into lasting traction.



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After Monad’s TGE, can the chain turn hype into long-term conversion?

Sam Schubert

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<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Today markets leaned decisively risk-on, with crypto leading the move while traditional assets stayed muted. Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade arrived with PeerDAS, BPO hard forks, and the under-discussed EIP-7918, which together may finally restore deflationary pressure on ETH. On the thematic front, Sui is making an aggressive full-stack push into robotics, positioning onchain coordination, settlement and telemetry as critical primitives for a coming wave of real-world machines.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets leaned firmly risk-on, with crypto broadly outperforming traditional assets. BTC (+5.8%) sat mid-pack, while equities were muted. The S&amp;P 500 (+0.3%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.9%) barely budged. Gold (-0.3%) slipped, and crypto miners were the clear outlier to the downside (-8.7%), suggesting profit-taking and sensitivity to BTC’s consolidation.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-29.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110222" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-29.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-29.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-29.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-29.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-29.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-29.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-29.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-29.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-29.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The crypto sector breadth was exceptionally strong. Oracles, lending and the broader Ethereum ecosystem led the board, signaling a clear rotation back into core infrastructure and high-utilization protocols. DeFi, Modular, the Solana ecosystem, and perps followed close behind with similarly solid showings, pointing to broad appetite for beta across liquid alt sectors. Lower down the stack, L2s, AI plays, launchpads and gaming tokens all moved higher, while more speculative areas like memes lagged. The only clear pockets of weakness were crypto equities and miners especially, which saw meaningful pullbacks.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-27.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110218" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-27.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-27.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-27.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-27.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-27.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-27.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-27.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-27.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-27.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The move fits with improving sentiment as macro headwinds ease. Yields stabilized, liquidity indicators firmed, and positioning metrics suggest investors are adding risk after a muted stretch. Strong rebounds in infra sectors imply expectations for higher onchain activity and potential catalysts from upcoming protocol upgrades. Looking ahead, attention turns to macro prints later this week, which could test the durability of this risk-on tone. Volatility remains compressed, but with crypto sector dispersion widening, traders should expect sharper rotations as narratives evolve.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market update&nbsp;</h2>



Today is Fusaka day in Ethereum land, the second upgrade this year (the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-pectra-fork-live">Pectra hard fork</a> was in May). It’s not often that Ethereum has two upgrades in one year, and that’s because Fusaka is more of a half-upgrade. Over a dozen EIPs were removed after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-consensus-evm-upgrade-fusaka-devs">EOF was mothballed</a> in April.



Of the 12 EIPs remaining, PeerDAS, is the most significant, according to Gabriel Trintinalia, protocol engineer at Consensys.



&#8220;During the initial development of the Fusaka upgrade, any feature that carried a risk of delaying the fork, such as those requiring more research or having high complexity, was deprioritized and removed from the scope,&#8221; Trintinalia told Blockworks.



PeerDAS introduces <a href="https://ethereum.org/developers/docs/data-availability/">data availability sampling</a>, which allows validators to share the load of blobs, effectively allowing for an increase in blobs per block. There is one upgrade being overlooked, but first, some background:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-28.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110219" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-28.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-28.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-28.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-28.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-28.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-28.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-28.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-28.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-28.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Blobs have failed to hit their target of six per block, and just when it looked like they were about to, Ethereum is looking to raise the target again. Technically, Fusaka will not be raising the blob target, but is instead introducing <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-fusaka-dec3-launch">Blob Parameter Only</a> (BPO) hard forks. This creates a separate and easier process to adjust blob storage parameters. So instead of waiting for a major upgrade, Ethereum can make smaller, more frequent adjustments to blob capacity.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-25.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110216" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-25.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-25.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-25.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-25.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-25.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-25.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-25.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-25.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



The larger point still stands: With supply exceeding demand, the blob gas price has been largely immaterial (apart from a few blips here and there when the blob price reached a measly 1 gwei).&nbsp; 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-30.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110224" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-30.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-30.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-30.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-30.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-30.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-30.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-30.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-30.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Post-Pectra, between June and October, Ethereum generated around $900 in blob fees. The brief spike in November brought this to ~$23,000. Still not material, but it highlighted the order-of-magnitude difference when blobs actually have a market.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-24.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110215" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-24.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-24.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-24.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-24.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-24.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-24.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-24.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-24.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



This is why <a href="https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-7918">EIP-7918</a> needs more attention. It addresses the blob fee market problem by introducing a reserve price tied to execution costs (a floor price of sorts). When L2 execution costs dominate blob costs, this prevents the blob fee market from becoming ineffective at 1 wei. For example, as shown below, if EIP-7918 was introduced on June 1, 2025, burnt blob fees would have been nearly 8x more. The upgrade isn’t only a reserve pricing model, it also presents more price stability and predictability, avoiding dramatic fee spikes when the blob market becomes inelastic.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="917" height="445" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-26.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110217" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-26.png?w=917 917w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-26.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-26.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-26.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-26.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-26.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-26.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 917px) 100vw, 917px" /></figure>



Together with PeerDAS and BPO, this suggests that as Ethereum scales L2 capacity, blob fees should go up as well (historically, this relationship has been strictly inverse). For ETH holders, this, combined with L1 scaling, can hopefully return the ETH supply to a deflationary phase.



Updated Dec. 4, 2025 at 2:12 am ET: Clarified comment



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Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade lands today

Strategy stress, liquidity strain

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Crypto opened the week with uneven signals. BTC gained +2.5%, but application and network revenues hit multi-month lows, and BTC ETFs saw their fourth-straight week of outflows. While AI and DePIN jumped +9%, broader activity remains soft, highlighting a market still searching for conviction.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Risk assets leaned modestly risk-on, with BTC (+2.5%) posting a steady gain while traditional equities lagged, as both the S&amp;P 500 (-0.1%) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.1%) slipped slightly. Gold (+0.1%) was essentially flat, reflecting a muted macro backdrop. Overall tone skewed constructive, driven largely by strength across crypto-native sectors.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="832" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110101" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Over the last 36 hours, crypto sector breadth was notably strong. DePIN (+9.0%) and AI (+9.0%) led the board, continuing their multi-week momentum as investors rotate toward higher-beta thematic plays. DeFi (+4.2%) followed alongside solid showings from Ethereum-aligned assets (+3.5%). On the downside, Modular (-1.7%) was the only meaningful decliner, marking a sharp divergence from the otherwise broad green sweep.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="849" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-139.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110099" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-139.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-139.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-139.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-139.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-139.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-139.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-139.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-139.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-139.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The dispersion suggests a clear preference for high-growth, high-narrative segments rather than broad-based macro buying. AI and DePIN’s outsized moves (both +9%) signal renewed speculative appetite in infrastructure and computation themes as traders position ahead of upcoming macro releases. With equities pausing and volatility suppressed, crypto remains the higher-beta expression of incremental risk-taking. Looking ahead, attention turns to this week’s macro catalysts, which could dictate whether BTC’s grind follows through or stalls. Sector rotation remains active, suggesting volatility may pick back up as positioning normalizes.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Charts for The Week</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-140.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110100" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-140.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-140.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-140.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-140.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-140.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-140.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-140.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-140.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Overall, application revenue was down 11% week over week from $49 million to $43.5 million — the lowest weekly revenue since March 2025. Hyperliquid continues to lead in terms of application revenue, making $18.5 million over the past week (up 8%), followed by pump.fun, which made $7.7 million (down 22%). Ore took third place for the first time, generating $2.3 million in the last week.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-137.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110097" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-137.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-137.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-137.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-137.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-137.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-137.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-137.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-137.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Weekly Network REV has been faring even worse, with the last two prints (both around $29.5 million) the lowest since 2022. Ethereum took top spot ($8.9 million), a position it’s been in and out of for the past few weeks. Solana remains in third with $5.1 million (down 15%) and Tron in second with $6.3 million (down 12.5%). Solana was the market leader in only one of the last seven weeks, after holding top spot for months in a row.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-138.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110098" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-138.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-138.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-138.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-138.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-138.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-138.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-138.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-138.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Over the four weeks, US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent net outflows, with each of the last three weekly bars recording over $1 billion in withdrawn funds. IBIT has been responsible for the largest share of redemptions, while smaller but steady outflows also appear across funds like FBTC, BITB and ARKB. Overall, the trend reflects sustained investor derisking, with cumulative withdrawals building into late November.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="832" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110103" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-142.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Nubank is one of the world’s largest digital financial services platforms, operating in Latin America with over 127 million customers as of Q3 2025. Nubank has an impressive activity ratio of 83%, and like many neobanks, has no physical branches. The company has become a major crypto gateway with 6.6 million crypto users (up 42% YoY) and transaction volumes jumping 250% after eliminating exchange fees. Future initiatives include a US bank charter application and a pilot for dollar-pegged stablecoin payments (<a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/the-nu-era-of-banking">Read more</a>).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-141.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110102" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-141.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-141.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-141.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-141.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-141.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-141.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-141.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-141.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-141.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Survey data confirms user awareness of these threats. Among respondents to our survey, 88% identify connecting to malicious sites as their primary concern, compared to 77% citing smart contract vulnerabilities. These results show that the market recognizes that frontend attacks are a significant threat vector (<a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/securing-de-fi-frontend-security-infrastructure-and-user-behavior-in-web3-applications">read more</a>).



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Revenue declines and ETF outflows keep pressure on the crypto market

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It was a rough Thursday, with major indices sliding across the board. The tech-heavy S&amp;P 500 fell -2.4%, the Nasdaq dropped -3.8%, and even Gold edged lower by -0.60%. BTC took the biggest hit, falling -5.2% and briefly touching the $80,000 level earlier today.



The selloff came despite a strong earnings report from Nvidia, which makes the market reaction harder to pinpoint. The United States unemployment rate for September ticked up to 4.4% even as job growth <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-in-september-unemployment-rate-rises-to-4-4">beat</a> expectations. At the same time, the <a href="https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor">odds</a> of a December rate cut have fallen sharply from 45.4% last week to 28% now, and that shift in macro expectations is likely contributing to the recent weakness.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="957" height="368" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110076" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=957 957w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></figure>



Across crypto sectors, everything finished in the red. Two areas held up relatively well: Gaming at -2.8% and the Revenue sector at -3.2%.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1173" height="632" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-126.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110074" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-126.png?w=1173 1173w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-126.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-126.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-126.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-126.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-126.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-126.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-126.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1173px) 100vw, 1173px" /></figure>



On the other side, Crypto Equities and Miners were the hardest hit, falling -10.3% and -13.2%, respectively. The monthly picture is even more painful, with HOOD at -17.6%, COIN at -27%, and GLXY at -38%. Miners remain weighed down by skepticism around the AI trade and whether the pivot to AI data centers will deliver returns.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="957" height="368" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110075" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=957 957w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-127.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px" /></figure>



One bright spot remains Solana ETF flows. While BTC and ETH ETFs have seen consistent outflows since Oct. 28, SOL ETFs just logged their 14th-straight day of inflows following the launch of BSOL. Roughly <a href="https://farside.co.uk/sol/#google_vignette">$500 million</a> worth of SOL is now held across these ETFs, with more issuers having entered the staked SOL ETF race.



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Crypto and tech indices close out a rough week

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Equities ripped higher yesterday, with the Nasdaq up 2.15% and the S&amp;P 500 up 1.39% after Nvidia beat earnings and guided for $65 billion in Q4 revenue. Crypto moved the other way: BTC fell, most sectors closed red, and only a few outliers held up. Today we break down the divergence, Aave’s 2.6x YoY TVL growth and new app rollout, and why Solana’s equity-perp ecosystem is lagging Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 flywheel.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Despite the recovery in equities yesterday, BTC continued to show weakness and fell -1.66% on a day when the Nasdaq, S&amp;P 500, and Gold were up 2.15%, 1.39%, and 0.77%, respectively.



Nvidia’s earnings helped calm fears of the AI bubble popping, at least for now. The chipmaker beat analyst expectations with strong data center demand, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/nov/19/nvidia-earnings-ai-wall-street-relief#:~:text=The%20company%20is%20projecting%20fourth,AI%20bubble%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said.">projected</a> fourth quarter revenue of $65 billion, compared to the $61 billion estimate. With Nvidia shares up 5% after hours, the tech-heavy indices should continue to see some relief. The case for BTC is less straightforward, with OG Bitcoin whales <a href="https://x.com/santimentfeed/status/1991280300601508328?s=20">continuing</a> to sell as BTC struggles to reclaim the key $100,000 level.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1176" height="623" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-124.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110061" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-124.png?w=1176 1176w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-124.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-124.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-124.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-124.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-124.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-124.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-124.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1176px) 100vw, 1176px" /></figure>



The weakness in BTC spread across the crypto market, with nearly every sector closing in the red. Memes were the rare outlier, rising 0.2% on the day, driven by SPX and MemeCore — which gained 6.3% and 2.3%, respectively. L2s also held up better than most, down only -0.5%.&nbsp;



Starknet stood out in the group, jumping 20.8% on the day and 81% on the week as it picked up the privacy narrative bid following news that the team plans to launch <a href="https://x.com/Starknet/status/1990437640684888167?s=20">Ztarknet</a>, a Starknet L2 designed for Zcash.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1174" height="645" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-120.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110055" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-120.png?w=1174 1174w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-120.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-120.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-120.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-120.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-120.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-120.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-120.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1174px) 100vw, 1174px" /></figure>



On the downside, Crypto Miners fell -5.9% despite Nvidia’s strong results reinvigorating the AI trade. The No Revenue index was the next weakest, dropping -4.5%, with XRP and XLM down -4.9% and -3.9%, respectively, on the day. Even tokens with strong fundamentals were not spared, with the Revenue index finishing -3% lower.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update</h2>



It can be hard to stay optimistic in markets like this, but it is worth remembering that some teams are still shipping, still innovating, and still strengthening their fundamentals week after week. These are the projects that typically emerge strongest when sentiment finally turns. One name that stands out right now for me is Aave, which rolled out both the new <a href="https://x.com/aave/status/1990421343175672159?s=20">Aave App</a> and <a href="https://x.com/aave/status/1990421343175672159?s=20">Aave v4</a> this week.



Let’s start with fundamentals. Over the past year, the total value of assets deposited into Aave has grown from $20.5 billion to a peak of $74 billion in early October. Even after the recent market pullback brought that number down to $53.8 billion, Aave is still up roughly 2.6x year over year, which speaks to real, sustained demand for the protocol.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="713" height="368" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110056" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=713 713w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 713px) 100vw, 713px" /></figure>



The price of the Aave token may be drifting near April lows, but weekly revenues tell a different story. Revenues today are about 2.6x higher than they were back then, which suggests that the token is seeing multiple compression driven more by sentiment than by fundamentals.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="713" height="368" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110057" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=713 713w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-119.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 713px) 100vw, 713px" /></figure>



These fundamentals are primed to strengthen further with the launch of the Aave App. The goal is simple: Remove complexity and give everyday users a clean, intuitive savings experience. And the pitch is strong. Aave is offering interest rates of up to 6.5% on USD deposits, well above the <a href="https://aave.com/app">0.40-3.50%</a> range offered by savings accounts.



Onboarding is designed to be easy, with deposits supported through bank accounts and debit cards, and balances advertised as insured up to $1 million. The app is available in early access on iOS with Android support on the way.&nbsp;



However, the insurance piece deserves a closer look. The coverage is provided by <a href="https://relminsurance.com/">Relm Insurance</a>, a firm that focuses on emerging industries such as fintech, digital assets, AI and the space economy. Relm’s <a href="https://relminsurance.com/crypto-asset-insurance-comprehensive-protection-in-the-digital-asset-ecosystem/">crypto asset insurance</a> includes coverage for risks like smart contract exploits, stablecoin depegs, oracle manipulation, liquidity pool exploits and governance attacks. What remains unclear are the policy limits, the risk premiums Aave is paying, and whether Relm has the balance sheet strength or reinsurance in place to backstop large claims. For context, insuring $1 million of USDC on Aave v3 through <a href="https://app.nexusmutual.io/cover/product/97">Nexus Mutual</a> costs about 1.9% annually.



As a potential user, I would want these details around the insurance promise laid out clearly and upfront before I’d feel comfortable depositing capital into the app. And as an investor, it raises questions about the cost structure of offering both high savings rates and insurance at scale. These uncertainties sit alongside the broader question of how long Aave intends to subsidize the difference between the 6.5% yield offered in the app and the 4% APY available in stablecoin markets on Aave today.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="714" height="364" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-121.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110058" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-121.png?w=714 714w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-121.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-121.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-121.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-121.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-121.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 714px) 100vw, 714px" /></figure>



Even with those uncertainties, this moment feels important. The Neobank narrative is gaining momentum, and Aave is now positioned directly in that slipstream. Pair that with the arrival of <a href="https://aave.com/blog/understanding-aave-v4s-architecture">Aave v4</a>, and you have the foundation for what could be the protocol’s next major growth phase.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Solana equity perps?</h2>



Solana has long positioned itself as a platform purpose-built for institutional trading, with Anatoly Yakovenko describing the vision as &#8220;Nasdaq, but on a public, permissionless blockchain.&#8221; Central to this mission is bringing TradFi assets onchain, a goal that is slowly materializing. Since June 30, 2025, over 60 tokenized stocks from major US companies and ETFs (e.g., Apple, Nvidia, S&amp;P 500) are now available for non-US persons to buy and hold like they would any SPL token.



These tokenized stocks have gained significant traction on Solana, reaching $143 million in AUM compared to just $6.3 million for the EVM-based xStocks version. Furthermore, Galaxy Digital&#8217;s decision to tokenize its GLXY equity via the Opening Bell platform, along with its work with Superstate, signals that institutional adoption is slowly gaining momentum.



However, on the other side — equity perpetuals — Solana seems to be lagging behind. While Solana is advancing its capabilities by enabling CLOB latency (via BAM) to support trading of synthetic perps, Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 mainnet and subsequent &#8220;Growth Mode&#8221; (offering a 90% fee discount) has changed the landscape. With TradeXYZ clearing $400 million in daily volume, there is a question of whether Hyperliquid’s dominance is already too far ahead.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-125.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110062" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-125.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-125.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-125.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-125.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-125.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-125.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-125.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-125.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-125.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The main argument for Solana’s struggle here is Hyperliquid’s distribution advantage via HIP-3. Normally, general-purpose chains benefit from users’ &#8220;proximity to capital&#8221; — the friction of bridging to a new exchange and setting up a wallet usually makes users prefer to stay within their own ecosystem. However, through Builder codes, Hyperliquid has secured integrations with top distribution channels: Phantom now directly offers HIP-3 equities through its frontend interface.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1056" height="676" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-123.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110059" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-123.png?w=1056 1056w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-123.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-123.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-123.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-123.png?w=401 401w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-123.png?w=408 408w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-123.png?w=342 342w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-123.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1056px) 100vw, 1056px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Phantom Builder code volume ASXN</figcaption></figure>







Alternatively, the argument is that Solana retains a structural advantage due to its proximity to tokenized spot tokens (e.g., xStocks). This simplifies the task for market makers, as they can easily hedge between spot and perps (theoretically, as xStocks currently lack the onchain volume). In this regard, protocols like Drift that focus on scaling composability are well-positioned. For example, users could easily enter delta-neutral positions (collateralizing xStock to short an xStock perp). This could solve a very important problem with perps currently: the extremely high cost of carry.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1078" height="668" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-122.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110060" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-122.png?w=1078 1078w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-122.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-122.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-122.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-122.png?w=415 415w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-122.png?w=421 421w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-122.png?w=353 353w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-122.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1078px) 100vw, 1078px" /></figure>



That being said, most Solana protocols have still not integrated perpetual equities, so it remains to be seen how they execute on this theoretical advantage.



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AI relief rally meets BTC drag

Byron Gilliam

This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/brand/the-breakdown" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“Patternicity: Noun. The tendency to find meaningful patterns in meaningless noise.”



— Michael Shermer
</blockquote>



We are hardwired to see patterns in noise — a stick in the grass that looks like a poisonous snake, or a rustle in the bushes that looks like a saber-toothed tiger getting ready to pounce.&nbsp;



With a moment’s reflection, we can usually recognize we’re almost certainly not in danger. But why risk it?



When faced with ambiguity, our brains have been fine-tuned to succumb to Type I errors (false positives) due to the high evolutionary cost of making a Type II error (false negatives).



In other words, it’s better to mistake a stick for a snake than a snake for a stick.



Those prone to the latter — the Type II error of failing to recognize mortal danger — are soon removed from the gene pool.



The Darwinian result is that we’re all descended from people who were quick to make the (occasionally life-saving) Type I error of jumping to false-positive conclusions.&nbsp;



Michael Shermer <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/patternicity-finding-meaningful-patterns/">calls</a> this “patternicity”: the human tendency to find meaningful patterns in meaningless noise.



“Our brains are belief engines,” he explains — “evolved pattern-recognition machines that connect the dots and create meaning out of the patterns that we think we see in nature.”



Traders and investors are the world champions of patternicity.



Confronted with the cacophonous noise of financial markets, we try to impose order on chaos by drawing lines on charts and searching for reassuringly familiar patterns.&nbsp;



When we perceive a “cup and handle” pattern in the price history of a stock, for example, we’re using the same part of our brain that perceives the shape of a rabbit in a cloud.&nbsp;



But the cup-and-handle is formed by charting prices over time, which seems more quantitatively scientific than a billowy pattern of vapor in the sky.



James Gleick refers to this as “periodicity.”&nbsp;



&#8220;Why do investors insist on the existence of cycles in gold and silver prices?” he asks in <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Making-Science-James-Gleick-ebook/dp/B003YL4KOO/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.wbgQnuEhLIWY1HpuwBAg68ey4RWvDMHGoydJqSagN4DxsD4TW9khHUiB4S07pkwyAI9PZ7ENDVba-3DmEALTYmFRxnkGKpt3W5vPpmeXRkqNgnlaydfPEjxyz0U8yOIAu9ORS2bGtNkz7lg0WJpWXVD0Fkj3btJCEdSVpvoov9NIk_t-_tbOTc-zPX5j3z9D7AX8h3Fz4GEt2z0aNarG0V8yuxoJPEJrhuZEAmC0b5U.3e_k-V8SS5j8t5RCNcYG3xub3le5GO-LXI9WElflzMU&amp;qid=1763573303&amp;sr=1-1">Chaos</a>. “Because periodicity is the most complicated orderly behavior they can imagine.”&nbsp;



Investors, being the descendants of Type I thinkers, impose neat, repeating cycles on chaotic price data because that’s the most complexity our pattern-hungry brains can process.



“When they see a complicated pattern of prices,” Gleick adds, “they look for some periodicity wrapped in a little random noise.”



Investors and traders may be particularly prone to this evolutionary foible because even the best of them have a hit rate close to 50%.



That makes their performance close enough to random — and randomness tends to beget superstition.



Shermer, for example, notes that baseball players are much more superstitious about their hitting than they are about their fielding because the lower success rate in hitting makes it feel more random.



Traders don’t do anything as obviously superstitious as donning a lucky shirt like they would when they sit down to watch their favorite team play football or baseball.



But that’s because drawing lines on charts and picking patterns out of the noise makes us think we have more agency in making or losing money than we actually do.&nbsp;



Worse than superstition, this is superstition dressed up as science — not just seeing patterns in the stars, but believing the patterns have some meaning.&nbsp;



The “science” of technical analysis is really just astrology for traders.



Shermer calls this “agenticity”: the tendency to infuse patterns with meaning, intention, or agency — or the belief that ghosts, demons, aliens, and government conspiracists haunt our world and control our lives.



Stock market traders, for example, commonly believe it’s the Federal Reserve that controls prices on the way up (and sometimes a cabal of hedge funds that control themes on the way down).



But of all traders, crypto traders are the best of the best at both patternicity and agenticity — because what else is there to go on?



With little or no intrinsic value to ground their decisions, crypto traders are forced to impose imaginary patterns on pure price noise just to have a reason to act.



The original imaginary pattern was the four-year cycle — the idea that bitcoin (and therefore all of crypto) should rally for about 18 months after each of its four-year halvings.



That perceived periodicity is now breaking down, however, with bitcoin falling below $90,000 when the pattern says it should be making new highs above $150,000.&nbsp;



This idea was particularly unscientific, as it’s based on a sample size of just three previous halvings.



Still, there are presumably some tradeable patterns in finance — otherwise Cliff Asness wouldn&#8217;t be a billionaire.&nbsp;



The persistent success of quantitative traders like Asness in finding tradeable price patterns suggests that markets are not perfectly random.



Some might even <a href="https://www.skeptic.org.uk/2024/11/hadd-its-day-theres-no-evidence-for-an-inherited-hyperactive-agency-detection-device/">argue</a> that patternicity is itself a pattern in the noise of human behavior.



In financial markets especially, it might be that human behavior creates the patterns that humans are always looking for.



But even so, the thing to know about markets is this: Any pattern of prices that’s visible to the naked eye will soon stop being a pattern.



In crypto, the four-year cycle lasted longer than most before being exposed as a Type I error of overzealous pattern-matching — which made it a profitably tradeable pattern for a while.&nbsp;



But with bitcoin at $89,000, it’s time to start looking for the next one.



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bitcoin halving

Astrology for traders

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Markets retreated on Monday amid renewed uncertainty over Federal Reserve rate cuts, softer real-economy prints and broadening rhetoric that we are in an “AI bubble.” The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dipped 1% and 1.1%, respectively, pressured by tech sector weakness. Gold was also down 1.4%, with bitcoin down 2.3% to now sitting just above $90,000.&nbsp;



It was a risk-off day across the board, with virtually every major sector in the red except bitcoin miners, which managed a modest +1.0% gain. The hardest-hit pockets were L2 tokens (−6.1%) and the Solana ecosystem (−5.6%), hurt by broader DeFi deleveraging. L1s (−2.3%) tracked our REV index lower at roughly the same pace, while AI (-2.6%), DePin (-2.7%), and RWAs (-3.2%) were marginally worse off.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1109" height="599" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-106.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110023" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-106.png?w=1109 1109w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-106.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-106.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-106.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-106.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-106.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-106.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-106.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1109px) 100vw, 1109px" /></figure>



None of our indexes have held up on a one-week view, underscoring crypto&#8217;s status as the most reflexive asset class amid escalating macro headwinds. BTC is down 13% over the period, holding up the best among crypto investments. Network fundamentals are deteriorating, with our REV index sliding 13.3% as Ethereum and Solana ecosystem tokens crater 25-30%.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1332" height="740" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-109.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110026" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-109.png?w=1332 1332w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-109.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-109.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-109.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-109.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-109.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-109.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-109.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1332px) 100vw, 1332px" /></figure>



When dollars get scarce, the most speculative asset classes, crypto first among them, always take the hardest and fastest hit. An example of liquidity stress is the widening positive spread (SOFR &gt; EFFR) being a sign of low levels of cash in overnight money markets. This means when cash gets scarce, people are desperate enough to pay more than the Fed’s rate to get their hands on dollars overnight.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1007" height="622" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-111.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110028" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-111.png?w=1007 1007w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-111.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-111.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-111.png?w=416 416w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-111.png?w=423 423w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-111.png?w=355 355w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-111.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1007px) 100vw, 1007px" /></figure>



Broader macro themes remain tense. With the government shutdown resolved, TGA drawdowns should provide some liquidity relief as the government reopens. Debate continues on QT ending and how much a pivot to Fed balance-sheet expansion will actually increase liquidity and support risk assets. On more fundamental data, Nvidia earnings hit Wednesday, and the delayed September jobs report arrives Thursday following the six-week government shutdown.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update</h2>



Bitcoin ETFs have flipped to heavy outflows in November, with roughly $3 billion in outflows over the last three weeks as institutional investors de-risk amid macro weakness and liquidity stress. ETH spot ETFs saw ~$1.2 billion outflows over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Solana ETFs pulled in nearly $650 million, helped by new ETF launches.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-105.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110022" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-105.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-105.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-105.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-105.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-105.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-105.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-105.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



Even perennial outperformers like Strategy (MSTR) are cracking under the pressure, its their mNAV ratio dipping below 1.0, now trading at around 0.9x, a stark inversion from the 2-3x premiums in the early 2025 surge. All other bitcoin treasury companies are now trading materially below NAV, with mNAV ratios ranging from 0.7x to nearly 0.4x.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-108.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110025" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-108.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-108.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-108.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-108.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-108.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-108.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-108.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



Corporate crypto treasury accumulation has slowed dramatically in November amid compressed equity premiums that curb fundraising for buys. The fading momentum raises questions around whether persistent mNAV discounts will lead these firms to sell crypto assets.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-107.png" alt="" class="wp-image-110024" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-107.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-107.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-107.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-107.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-107.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-107.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-107.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



Bitcoin miners aren&#8217;t faring any better, with hashprice collapsing to ~$38 per PH/s as network hashrate climbs back to 1,100 EH/s despite falling BTC prices. The sole bright spot is rising volatility driving network activity higher, pushing fees to ~1.2% of block rewards, up from last month&#8217;s 0.5% lows. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/71dd3e2a-c7c1-461a-8f46-a02c26bf8fd8" width="720" height="227">



Miners’ cash flows are still tied to collapsing BTC hashprice, driving a one-week selloff of ~17%. The drop was amplified by rising “AI bubble” chatter, with our AI index down ~20%. We see that as noise, with the dip presenting an opportunity as they transform into critical AI infrastructure players (see our report <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/bitcoin-miners-the-megawatt-trade">Bitcoin Miners: The Megawatt Trade</a>).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1330" height="743" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-110.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110027" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-110.png?w=1330 1330w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-110.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-110.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-110.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-110.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-110.png?w=467 467w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-110.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-110.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1330px) 100vw, 1330px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Near Intents: The cross-chain liquidity hub</h2>



The Near Intents product was introduced as part of the core Near Protocol in November 2024. For context, intents are an order type in which a user specifies a desired outcome, rather than a specific path of execution. This order type tasks external agents, referred to as “solvers” or “fillers,” to identify some transaction that returns the desired outcome, usually in exchange for a fee. Leveraging Near’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/near-protocol-chain-signatures-multichain-defi">chain abstraction stack</a> and the intent solver network, Near Intents allows trading of hundreds of assets across various chains from a single account or by any agent, without the need for bridging or wrapping assets.



After steady but slow monthly growth, October marked a breakout month for Near Intents. As shown in the chart below, the protocol processed $1.72 billion in volume in October, a 256% MoM increase. November has already surpassed that with $2.19 billion in volume as of Nov. 17, putting Near Intents on track to settle nearly $4 billion this month.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-114.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110031" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-114.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-114.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-114.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-114.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-114.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-114.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-114.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-114.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-114.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Looking at fees, the growth over the past two months is even more dramatic. Near Intents has generated $4.09 million in fees in November 2025, surpassing the $3.95 million of cumulative fees from inception to October 2025, with nearly two weeks still left in the month. If current activity levels persist, Near Intents is on pace to generate around $7 million in fees in November.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-112.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110029" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-112.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-112.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-112.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-112.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-112.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-112.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-112.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-112.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-112.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Near Intents’ primary catalyst for its exponential growth in recent months was its Zcash support and Zashi integration. Zashi, the most popular Zcash mobile wallet, allows users to perform decentralized cross-chain swaps from other crypto assets into ZEC within the wallet. Yesterday, Zashi<a href="https://x.com/zashi_app/status/1990467451461787783?s=20"> introduced</a> an update to the Near Intents integration that unlocks private swaps, allowing users to directly convert any Near-supported asset (e.g., BTC, ETH, USDC) into shielded ZEC. Previously, Zashi only supported swaps to a transparent address, requiring users to manually shield their ZEC afterward. Moreover, a swap from ZEC to other assets would<a href="https://x.com/zachxbt/status/1980612190609576229?s=20"> return</a> a small refund to a transparent address even if executed from a shielded one, establishing a link between both addresses. With yesterday’s update, this issue is now fixed.&nbsp;



The chart below shows the cumulative volume of Near Intents by asset since Sept. 1, 2025. ZEC is the most swapped asset behind USDT and USDC, with $569 million in cumulative volume. A key question is whether Near Intents’ recent activity spike is a temporary effect of ZEC buying demand or the start of more durable growth. The surge in attention could ultimately seed a stickier user base for permissionless swapping across a broader set of blockchains and assets.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-113.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110030" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-113.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-113.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-113.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-113.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-113.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-113.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-113.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-113.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-113.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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Markets in full risk-off mode

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Following the longest government shutdown in US history, markets still have not recovered well. While gold has outperformed (+1.79% over the past week) and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are only slightly down (-0.21% and -0.57%, respectively), BTC has seen significant downside, with -10.32% over the past seven days.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1477" height="824" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-101.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110000" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-101.png?w=1477 1477w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-101.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-101.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-101.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-101.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-101.png?w=468 468w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-101.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-101.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1477px) 100vw, 1477px" /></figure>



Altcoins have similarly not fared well. The only sectors which have outperformed BTC are RWA and no-revenue indices. No-revenue tokens have outperformed slightly due to XRP holding up better than BTC (down only -6.36% over the past week), and RWA tokens have been held up by OUSG (+0.73%) and HASH (-3.44%) this past week.



In terms of worst performers, we’ve seen the crypto-miner, Solana Eco, and Modular indices bear the brunt of the pain. Notably, within Solana Eco, MPLX is down -42.36% over the past week (due to an <a href="https://x.com/playsolana/status/1989732663289147540">exploit/incident during the PSG1 launch</a>), and JTO is down -26.81% (possibly due to the announcement of Harmonic as a competitor).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1481" height="829" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-102.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110001" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-102.png?w=1481 1481w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-102.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-102.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-102.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-102.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-102.png?w=466 466w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-102.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-102.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1481px) 100vw, 1481px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Charts for The Week</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-99.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109998" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-99.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-99.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-99.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-99.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-99.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-99.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-99.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



Hyperliquid continues to lead in terms of application revenue, making $17.1 million over the past week, followed by Pump.fun, which made $9.6 million. Despite Pump.fun having a lower multiple based on these revenue figures, the token has held up worse than HYPE. The PUMP/HYPE pair is down 23.4% over the past week.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-100.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109999" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-100.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-100.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-100.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-100.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-100.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-100.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-100.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



In terms of chain revenue, Solana has held up surprisingly well, despite the continued downturn in memecoin activity (apart from pump.fun). Over the past two months, Solana revenue market share has shrunk from 21% of all chains to 12%. Despite this, the chain still has higher revenue compared to Ethereum, but now sits behind Hyperliquid and Tron.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-98.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109997" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-98.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-98.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-98.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-98.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-98.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-98.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-98.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



MSTR outstanding mNAV has fallen to 0.9. Earlier today, Saylor announced that MSTR bought 8,178 BTC for ~$835.6 million at ~$102,171 per BTC. Although Saylor is unlikely to sell, NAV less than 1 makes issuance increasingly difficult, leading to fewer buys and potentially lower mNAV.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110003" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



In the most recent Upbit 10 listings, the median listing-day price jump was 70%, with an average of 115%, compared to roughly 40% on Binance for non-meme listings — reflecting South Korea’s highly active retail investor base, where enthusiasm for new assets often drives short-term price spikes (read <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/naver-s-bid-for-upbit-building-korea-s-next-generation-super-app">more</a>).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-110002" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-103.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Loopscale deposits have grown by about 28% over the past 90 days to $93 million, with active loans growing at a similar rate to $34 million. For comparison, both Kamino deposits and outstanding loans have experienced negative growth over the same period (read <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/loopscale-scaling-net-new-assets-in-de-fi">more</a>).



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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“A pin lies in wait for every bubble. And when the two eventually meet, a new wave of investors learns some very old lessons.”



— Warren Buffett
</blockquote>



Markets were down this week, possibly because GPUs are starting to go dark.



In Oregon, for example, three of Amazon’s new data centers are sitting idle because the local utility company <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-04/amazon-says-berkshire-utility-failing-to-power-data-centers">refuses</a> to connect them to the power grid.&nbsp;



That leaves thousands of cutting-edge GPUs, likely costing hundreds of millions, sitting idle as well — aging in place without making any return on the giant investment they represent.



Microsoft is having the same problem.&nbsp;



Satya Nadella <a href="https://datacentremagazine.com/news/microsofts-power-problem-ai-chips-are-sitting-in-inventory?utm_campaign=Weekly+Briefing&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=2&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8VdfAdcq-ct7d0ENROqJaeaC3SmOvexqkq9p9qLdMzpbsROUqJBNSpVLOFlqeSXCkYY_uN8gqVimh8DxylgiwnCuImCA&amp;_hsmi=2">says</a> the “biggest issue” that Microsoft is now facing in AI is “a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can&#8217;t plug in.”&nbsp;



“It&#8217;s not a supply issue of chips,” he adds. “It&#8217;s actually the fact that I don&#8217;t have warm shells to plug into.”



The “shells” Nadella’s referring to are data centers and they’re not warm because they’re not connected to a source of power.&nbsp;



There are many such cases.



“The infrastructure has now been outpaced by the construction of facilities,” Kristin Hammond of CBRE <a href="https://djcoregon.com/news/2025/09/12/data-center-construction-slows-us-power-grid/">explains</a>. “There’s no use to having the facility if you don’t have the power poles to service it.”



But we’re still constructing the facilities.



Spending on data centers is on pace to <a href="https://news.constructconnect.com/november-data-center-report-spending-surges-92.8-as-southern-states-dominate-construction">double</a> this year vs. last, and the pipeline of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/when-ai-hype-meets-ai-reality-a-reckoning-in-6-charts-bf8043b4?mod=djem10point">proposed projects</a> is growing even faster than that.



This might be starting to sound familiar.&nbsp;



For stock market investors, data centers going unused for want of power should evoke memories of 1999, when an estimated 97% of fiber optic cables that investors were frantically funding remained “dark,” or unused.&nbsp;



The analogy is not exact: It was a demand problem then, and it’s a supply problem now. But the end effect might rhyme to the effect of many billions of dollars of stranded infrastructure.



For credit investors, the current infrastructure frenzy is evoking memories of 2008.



Data centers are increasingly being <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/three-ai-megadeals-are-breaking-new-ground-on-wall-street-896e0023?mod=djemfoe">funded with debt</a>, often in special purpose vehicles that keep the debt off-balance sheets, and sometimes by selling asset-backed securities in various risk tranches to investors indifferent to the underlying assets.



Does that sound familiar? Here’s a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Rhs3PVAP4o">refresher</a> on credit markets from Margot Robbie, if not.



For one veteran investor, the data center boom is evoking 1999 and 2008 — and all the other ones, too.



&#8220;For the first time,” Paul Kedrosky <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2025-11-14/odd-lots-ai-is-like-every-bubble-all-rolled-into-one-podcast?srnd=phx-oddlots">says</a>, “we&#8217;ve combined all the major ingredients of every historical bubble into a single bubble.&#8221;



Fun!



Kedrosky sees these ingredients as a compelling technology story, a speculative real estate boom, increasingly loose credit and a form of government backstop.



He sees this as a toxic brew for both markets and the economy: “The notion we can land this thing safely is nonsense.”



In short, the risk is that the current power shortage causing GPUs to go dark will cause data centers to build their own power plants — with borrowed money — in the out-of-the-way places where AI data centers are built, but hardly anyone lives.



These new power plants will become “stranded assets,” Kedrosky warns, when efficiency gains in AI training radically reduce the number of chips required: “We&#8217;re completely mis-forecasting arc of demand for compute.&#8221;



It’s the classic pattern: “The system is running at full throttle on forward expectations,” Kedrosky <a href="https://paulkedrosky.com/on-ai-capex-apologists/">writes</a>, “perceived shortage-now/glut-later is exactly how bubbles form.”



On the other hand, there’s no telling how long this process might take.



Kedrosky says it may be “four or five years” until the credit instruments underwriting the data center boom run into trouble.&nbsp;



Five years of booming markets in return for a bust?&nbsp;



I’d take that trade, for sure.



In the meantime, let’s check the charts.



We have big plans:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1064" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-89.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109978" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-89.png?w=1064 1064w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-89.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-89.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-89.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-89.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-89.png?w=445 445w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-89.png?w=373 373w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-89.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1064px) 100vw, 1064px" /></figure>



The number of announced plans to build data centers has exploded. But they’re increasingly hard and ever-more expensive to build. Perhaps more worryingly, the number of stalled projects is growing. What this chart will look like next year is probably the key to nearly all asset markets.&nbsp;



The plan for revenue:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1122" height="599" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-90.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109979" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-90.png?w=1122 1122w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-90.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-90.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-90.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-90.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-90.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-90.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-90.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1122px) 100vw, 1122px" /></figure>



If the data centers do get built, will we use them all? JPMorgan <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/when-ai-hype-meets-ai-reality-a-reckoning-in-6-charts-bf8043b4?mod=djem10point">projects</a> that “AI products would have to create an additional $650 billion a year, indefinitely, to give investors a reasonable 10% annual return” on their AI investments. The Raymond James forecasts above suggest we might fall well short of that.



Electricity prices:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1087" height="650" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-94.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109983" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-94.png?w=1087 1087w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-94.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-94.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-94.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-94.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-94.png?w=436 436w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-94.png?w=366 366w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-94.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1087px) 100vw, 1087px" /></figure>



People worry that data centers will raise the cost of electricity, but, per the above, that has not been the case so far — electricity prices have risen slower than inflation for years. There’s also <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/10/25/data-centers-electricity-prices-rise/">evidence</a> that data center demand might even lower electricity prices — likely because higher demand allows fixed costs to be spread over more customers.



It’s mostly a US story, for now:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="840" height="449" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-93.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109982" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-93.png?w=840 840w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-93.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-93.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-93.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-93.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-93.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-93.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px" /></figure>



The US continues to lead the world in data centers, with 4,189 vs. just 381 in China. Tellingly, in <a href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-invests-50-billion-in-american-ai-infrastructure">announcing</a> its data center plans this week, Anthropic was careful to say it’s investing in “American AI infrastructure.”&nbsp;



Chinese exporters seem to be thriving without the US:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1421" height="752" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-96.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109985" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-96.png?w=1421 1421w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-96.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-96.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-96.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-96.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-96.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-96.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-96.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1421px) 100vw, 1421px" /></figure>



Torsten Slok notes that while China has exported $75 billion less to the US so far this year, it’s exported $150 billion more to Asia.



Worst US sentiment ever:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="859" height="539" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-91.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109980" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-91.png?w=859 859w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-91.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-91.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-91.png?w=410 410w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-91.png?w=416 416w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-91.png?w=349 349w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-91.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 859px) 100vw, 859px" /></figure>



The University of Michigan’s November survey of consumer sentiment returned its lowest reading on record, going all the way back to 1960. And the bubble hasn’t even popped yet!



Bearish sentiment, bullish returns:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="789" height="486" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-92.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109981" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-92.png?w=789 789w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-92.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-92.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-92.png?w=417 417w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-92.png?w=424 424w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-92.png?w=356 356w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-92.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 789px) 100vw, 789px" /></figure>



The best returns happen when people are most bearish.



You don’t have to be bullish on AI:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="966" height="615" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-97.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109986" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-97.png?w=966 966w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-97.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-97.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-97.png?w=404 404w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-97.png?w=410 410w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-97.png?w=344 344w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-97.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 966px) 100vw, 966px" /></figure>



David Hay <a href="https://haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-daily-aa9?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F74361197-9a8b-4d9d-8683-b5db821c2a40_868x554.png&amp;open=false">notes</a> that stocks dropped from the S&amp;P 500 (the black line above) outperformed the index by 5% a year in the 32 years from 1990 to 2022 — a cumulative excess return of 400%.



Do call it a comeback:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="1059" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-95.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109984" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-95.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-95.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-95.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-95.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-95.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-95.png?w=388 388w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-95.png?w=394 394w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-95.png?w=331 331w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-95.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



CSCO stock — left for dead in 2000 and long forgotten — is now 50% above its dotcom peak in total return (dividends reinvested).



A reminder that, if this bubble is soon over, there will be others to look forward to.



Have a great weekend, everything readers.



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The everything bubble?

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Crypto markets are ending the week in the red, with BTC falling below $95,000 after one of the worst days ever for bitcoin ETF flows. 



Risk assets sold off as doubts loom over a December rate cut, with BTC down -1.87% yesterday and tumbling briefly below $95,000 this morning, extending its losses. US equities also saw investors de-risk, with the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500 down -1.74% and -1.37%, respectively. Meanwhile, gold’s relative strength was notable, closing the day almost flat.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-87.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109970" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-87.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-87.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-87.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-87.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-87.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-87.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-87.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-87.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-87.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Expanding on the macro side, Fed members are pushing back against a December cut, especially given the lack of new data on the jobs and inflation fronts due to the government shutdown. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday he didn’t support the last interest rate cut, noting he’s undecided on the best course of action for next month’s policy meeting. The chart below effectively illustrates the sudden shift in market expectations. As of Nov. 13, the CME FedWatch Tool was pricing a 25 bps rate cut at just a 51% probability, compared to 63% the day before and over 95% a month ago.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-88.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109971" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-88.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-88.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-88.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-88.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-88.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-88.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-88.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-88.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-88.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Bitcoin has been hit especially hard by recent macro uncertainty, with bitcoin ETFs experiencing their second-worst day ever, in terms of net flows, yesterday. Bitcoin ETFs saw almost $870 million in outflows, suggesting that we’ll close the third consecutive week with negative flows. The last time bitcoin ETFs experienced three or more consecutive weeks of outflows was between February and March of this year, with BTC dropping below $80,000. The chart below shows bitcoin’s weekly ETF flows by product, with this week still pending inclusion.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-85.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109968" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-85.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-85.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-85.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-85.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-85.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-85.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-85.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-85.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-85.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Speaking of ETFs, one of the largest issuers (Grayscale) <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/11/13/3187426/0/en/Grayscale-Investments-Announces-Public-Filing-of-Registration-Statement-for-Proposed-Initial-Public-Offering.html">filed</a> for an IPO yesterday. The filing revealed declining financials, with a 20% year-over-year decline in revenue for the first nine months of the year. Notably, AUM was also lower on Sept. 30 than a year prior, despite BTC rising 80% during the same period. Since bitcoin ETFs began trading in 2024, Grayscale’s GBTC has seen almost $25 billion in cumulative net outflows.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-86.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109969" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-86.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-86.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-86.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-86.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-86.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-86.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-86.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-86.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-86.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Finally, regarding cross-sector performance, every crypto index we track was negative on the day, with the sole exception of RWA (+1.2%). The worst-performing indices were Crypto Miners (-6.6%), Solana Eco (-5.9%), and Crypto Equities (-5.8%). The fact that two of the worst-performing indices were equities is a further indication of broader risk-off sentiment driven by macro concerns.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="902" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-84.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109967" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-84.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-84.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-84.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-84.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-84.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-84.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-84.png?w=463 463w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-84.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-84.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



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Markets tumble as doubts grow over December rate cut

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Lido rolled out a buyback plan worth ~$4 million/year at current run-rates and paired it with a roadmap that pushes the protocol beyond staking. At the same time, Strategy (MSTR) slipped below mNAV of 1 and other BTC treasury names are trading at 0.4-0.8x, putting renewed focus on the model. In today’s edition of 0xResearch, we break down the data, the market reaction, and what stood out across sectors.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets slid again despite the optimism that started the week, with the S&amp;P 500 down -0.27%, the Nasdaq down -0.55%, and BTC lower by -1.54%. The flight to safety trend continued, with Gold climbing 1.08% on the day.



Weakness in Big Tech stocks has been the main drag on the tech-heavy indices, while capital continues to rotate into other sectors of the market that have lagged in the recent rallies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average stood out, rising 0.68% on the day and 2.5% for the week.



Concerns around an AI bubble remain in focus after SoftBank <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/softbanks-58-billion-nvidia-stake-sale-stirs-fresh-ai-bubble-fears-2025-11-11/">sold</a> its entire $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia. Even though CoreWeave <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/coreweave-earnings-stock-price-339d49cf">beat</a> Q3 sales estimates, its shares slipped on a lower revenue outlook due to data center delays. However, on the earnings call, the company <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/coreweave-earnings-stock-price-339d49cf">reaffirmed</a> that AI demand still far exceeds available capacity and that it remains supply-constrained.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="846" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-79.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109949" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-79.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-79.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-79.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-79.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-79.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-79.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-79.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-79.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-79.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



In crypto, most indices ended the day in the red, dragged down by BTC and broader equity weakness. The standouts were L2s and Memecoins, which gained 0.57% and 0.45%, respectively. L2s were boosted by MNT, up 2.24%, likely driven by excitement around <a href="https://x.com/UR_global">Mantle UR</a> and its positioning in the growing Neobank narrative. The Meme index got a lift from MemeCore, which rose 1.44% on the day.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="831" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-81.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109953" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-81.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-81.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-81.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-81.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-81.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-81.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-81.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-81.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-81.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Laggard categories included Crypto Miners and RWAs, which dropped -4.44% and -7.94%, respectively. The pullback in AI-linked equities spilled into mining stocks, many of which have pivoted toward AI data centers. After a YTD rally of 105.5%, some profit taking in the sector is also to be expected.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update</h2>



Doubts are starting to build around the sustainability of treasury companies now that the original pioneer of this playbook, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), is trading below an mNAV of 1 for the first time since early 2024. The company’s mNAV multiple has steadily bled lower from a peak of 2.4 following Trump’s election win.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="783" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-78.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109951" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-78.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-78.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-78.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-78.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-78.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-78.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-78.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-78.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-78.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The picture looks even worse for other BTC treasury names, which now trade at mNAV multiples between 0.4 and 0.8. Investors are increasingly skeptical of the model’s long-term viability. Relying on constant equity issuance to buy more BTC has become harder to justify as share dilution begins to outpace BTC accumulation. Many now see these companies as leveraged proxies for bitcoin, rather than efficient ways to gain exposure.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="787" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-80.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109952" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-80.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-80.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-80.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-80.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-80.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-80.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-80.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-80.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-80.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



That skepticism is showing up in the data. BTC purchases by treasury companies have slowed dramatically, down from billion-dollar waves every few weeks to more modest weekly buys of $25 million-$50 million recently.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="782" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-76.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109948" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-76.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-76.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-76.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-76.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-76.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-76.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-76.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-76.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-76.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Sometimes simplicity wins. While BTC is up just 0.2% over the past six months, MSTR has fallen -46.7%, and the newer BTC treasury names are down between -30% and -60%. Brutal, to say the least.



Still, it may be too early to write off the trade entirely. If these discounts persist, a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/hedge-funds-cash-grayscale-bitcoin-etf-conversion-sources-2024-01-26/#:~:text=Hedge%20fund%20Fir%20Tree%20Partners,ETF's%20assets%20to%20$20.4%20billion.">GBTC-style opportunity</a> could emerge where investors can acquire BTC exposure at a meaningful discount through public equities. And if there is one company that knows how to survive and adapt through cycles of expansion and contraction, my bet would be on Strategy.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Lido DAO</h2>



Following Uniswap&#8217;s move to align the Uniswap Foundation and Labs entity and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/uniswap-fee-switch">implement a fee switch</a>, Lido is also moving from pure governance into explicit value return for LDO holders.&nbsp;



<a href="https://research.lido.fi/t/liquid-buybacks-nest-execution-with-ldo-wsteth-liquidity/10894">A new Liquid Buybacks proposal</a> would route a slice of staking revenue into automated LDO buybacks, executed via NEST auctions and deposited into an LDO/wstETH LP fully controlled by the DAO. The mechanic is straightforward: Once ETH passed $3,000 and annualized revenue over $40 million, 50% of incremental staking inflows above that threshold are used to buy LDO, capped at $10 million per rolling year. At today’s run rate, this translates to roughly $4 million/year in buybacks.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-77.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109950" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-77.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-77.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-77.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-77.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-77.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-77.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-77.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-77.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-77.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



At first glance, this amount looks low. Aave runs a $50 million/year buyback program; Uniswap’s fee switch would have burned $26 million in the last month alone (not adjusted for wash trading). Secondly, the design also buys only when conditions are strong (high ETH price and high revenue) meaning Lido accumulates LDO when it is relatively expensive, while offering no counter-cyclical support during weaker market periods when the token likely suffers most.



However, Lido also outlined where the protocol is heading over the next 18 months, from a single-product staking business to a multi-product liquidity platform anchored by stETH.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="897" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-83.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109955" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-83.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-83.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-83.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-83.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-83.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-83.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-83.png?w=466 466w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-83.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-83.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



This sets the stage for Expanding Beyond Staking, where Lido evolves from a single-product stETH protocol in 2025 into a multi-product organization in 2026. Lido’s stVaults become the configurable chassis for institutional staking and yield strategies, Earn expands as the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lido-earn-tab">simple “default yield” front door</a> for retail and exchanges, and a new tier of structured and automated products sits on top as Lido moves both closer to users (distribution) and rightward into new asset classes.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="899" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-82.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109954" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-82.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-82.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-82.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-82.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-82.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-82.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-82.png?w=465 465w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-82.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-82.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Ultimately, Lido appears to be converging on the same insight that other LST protocols have already internalized: LSTs are structurally low-margin, and the real opportunity lies in the products and financial rails built on top of them. We see this clearly with Jito’s BAM (block-based auction markets) and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/etherfi-launches-defibank-us-crypto">EtherFi’s Cash</a>, both of which extend beyond pure staking yield. Lido’s roadmap is a necessary step in that direction.



 <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="624" height="351" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/1c47da1d-9f13-4533-af8a-40db2bb09303">



However, when it comes to buybacks, the P&amp;L dynamics we highlighted previously still apply. The DAO remains unprofitable (Q3 income was -$200,000), raising questions about how impactful these changes truly are today — or if it&#8217;s too little, too late for Lido.



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Lido’s buybacks won’t fix the bigger problem

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While crypto markets cooled this week under renewed macro pressure, Ika launched a multi-party computation design that enables trustless cross-chain signatures. With less than 1% of BTC currently productive in DeFi, Ika’s design could unlock tens of billions in dormant liquidity. ETFs continue to show outflows, though there are signs this may be ending.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Indices</h2>



Markets turned sharply risk-off, with nearly all crypto sectors in the red while traditional assets held steady. Gold (+0.6%) and the S&amp;P 500 (+0.1%) eked out small gains, contrasting with broad crypto weakness as BTC (-2.8%) and the broader crypto equities index (-1.8%) retreated. The Nasdaq 100 (-0.4%) mirrored muted tech sentiment, underscoring a modest flight to safety after recent volatility.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="839" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-73.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109933" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-73.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-73.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-73.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-73.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-73.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-73.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-73.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-73.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-73.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Crypto sector performance painted a stark picture of risk aversion. AI (-6.4%), L2 (-6.5%), and Launchpads (-6.6%) extended their declines, while DeFi (-8.1%) and Modular (-8.3%) led losses among infrastructure plays. Solana Ecosystem (-9.3%) and Ethereum Ecosystem (-9.2%) were the day’s biggest laggards, with onchain activity tapering and liquidity thinning across DEX volumes.



The Solana Eco Index was weighed down by weakness in key components like Jito, Drift and Metaplex. Early-week strength, particularly from BONK and DRIFT, faded by the weekend as profit-taking and liquidity unwinds hit DeFi and meme-adjacent plays hardest. ORCA and RAY showed relative resilience, stabilizing above weekly lows but still closing red. The sharp dispersion between protocols highlights rotation away from higher-beta SOL DeFi names toward liquidity hubs and yield platforms.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="843" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-74.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109937" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-74.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-74.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-74.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-74.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-74.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-74.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-74.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-74.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-74.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Macro headwinds are reasserting themselves as US yields climb, traders reassess the timing of 2026 rate cuts, and a firmer dollar and slowing ETF inflows dampen crypto momentum. Leverage has begun to unwind, tightening liquidity across derivatives markets. With BTC consolidating near six figures and volatility creeping higher, attention now shifts to the inflation print and the Fed’s final meeting of 2025. The broader tone is cooling exuberance, not panic — but for the first time in months, crypto looks vulnerable to macro gravity.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market update</h2>



Flows across major spot ETFs flipped green last week, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. The reversal follows a choppy stretch through late October when nearly all issuers saw redemptions. Outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC have eased, helping net flows move back above zero.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-71.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109934" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-71.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-71.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-71.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-71.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-71.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-71.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-71.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-71.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



The shift suggests investors are nibbling again after BTC’s brief dip to $100,000. Derivative markets tell a similar story as funding rates have leveled off, and futures basis has started to recover, pointing to stabilizing sentiment rather than aggressive risk-taking.



Meanwhile, ETH ETFs remain under pressure, with intermittent inflows failing to offset steady redemptions from major issuers. The latest data show ETH ETF flows leaning negative into mid-November. The result is a choppy flow profile that underscores weaker conviction in the ETH trade relative to BTC. ETH’s muted price performance hasn’t helped either; it continues to trail BTC both in spot and derivative markets. Funding rates remain flat, and the futures curve is showing less optimism compared to earlier in Q4, suggesting limited appetite for leveraged exposure.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-70.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109935" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-70.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-70.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-70.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-70.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-70.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-70.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-70.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-70.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Until ETH ETF inflows turn consistent, ETH is likely to keep trading in BTC’s shadow rather than setting its own pace.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Redefining decentralized multi-party computation</h2>



Bitcoin remains underutilized in DeFi, with less than 1% of circulating supply currently tokenized and generating yield. Capturing even an additional couple percent of native BTC would inject tens of billions in fresh collateral into DeFi ecosystems, creating step-function improvements in most areas. <a href="https://ika.xyz/">Ika</a>&#8216;s trustless architecture, utilizing Sui’s object-based blockchain, presents a path to leapfrog incumbent solutions and capture this underserved market.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="900" height="500" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-72.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109936" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-72.png?w=900 900w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-72.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-72.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-72.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-72.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-72.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-72.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px" /></figure>



The protocol&#8217;s novel 2PC-MPC architecture enables distributed networks to generate signatures with cryptographic guarantees that require user participation, solving a critical limitation in existing threshold signature schemes. While competitors like Lit Protocol, NEAR and ICP offer threshold signatures controlled by permissioned validator sets, Ika can ensure no transaction can execute without explicit user authorization, eliminating risks from compromised validators or rogue employees.&nbsp;



The strategic implications extend far beyond custody. Ika eliminates traditional bridge honeypots and wrapped token risks by enabling trustless cross-chain operations at Sui&#8217;s native speed, effectively making wallets on all chains programmable objects within Sui&#8217;s ecosystem. This architecture should allow Sui-based applications to access users and liquidity from any chain without wrapped intermediaries, while enabling projects on other chains to leverage Sui Move smart contracts as their backend without user-facing changes. As this technology matures, Ika could position Sui as a global coordination layer sitting above individual blockchains, capturing value from cross-chain activity while driving institutional integrations seeking compliant, trustless infrastructure.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="897" height="456" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-75.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109938" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-75.png?w=897 897w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-75.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-75.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-75.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-75.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-75.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-75.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 897px) 100vw, 897px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/67161f6a7534fbf38021d666/673dc7f1f9c5ef2fe161d8a6_Ika%20Whitepaper.pdf">Ika white paper</a></figcaption></figure>



 The Ika mainnet launched earlier this year, with developers like Human Tech and Native expected to launch products using Ika later this year.



<a href="https://human.tech/blog/our-wallet-as-a-protocol-is-now-secured-by-ika-s-2pc-mpc">Human Tech</a> leverages Ika to create a single interface controlling native assets across multiple chains through user-network co-signing, eliminating wrapped tokens and bridge risks while maintaining unified policies for recovery, limits and approvals.



<a href="https://www.gonative.cc/">Native</a> aims to leverage Ika&#8217;s 2PC-MPC architecture to enable Sui contracts to control actual bitcoin on Sui, delivering one-click, noncustodial BTC deposits and yield generation without bridges or wrapped intermediaries.



<a href="https://www.nativerse.xyz/">Nativerse</a> plans to employ Ika&#8217;s native signature capabilities to collateralize stablecoins with real bitcoin holdings, allowing Sui contracts to mint and manage BTC-backed dollars while maintaining dWallet policies for security limits and programmatic redemptions.



Following the mainnet launch, Ika’s token has sold off sharply, though meaningful onchain activity will take time to develop as the first production apps begin driving signature demand. The Ika token powers the network’s economy: Users and apps pay Ika for MPC operations like wallet creation and signing, while node operators earn those fees and staking rewards for securing the protocol. Ika also enables governance, with MPC nodes voting on protocol and economic parameters.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1521" height="822" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-69.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109932" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-69.png?w=1521 1521w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-69.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-69.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-69.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-69.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-69.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-69.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-69.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1521px) 100vw, 1521px" /></figure>







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Ika could redefine trustless cross-chain DeFi

Uniswap finally turns the fee switch

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Happy Friday. It was another rough week for crypto markets, with nearly every sector registering negative returns and a handful of long-tail “stablecoins” losing their peg.



Weakness prevails across the board, with all of our tracked indices posting negative returns over the past week, except for DePIN. This weakness comes as the majors BTC, ETH and SOL have established a daily and weekly downtrend, while equity indices have reversed ~3%-5% off their highs, adding risk back to the market. The selloff in equities has elevated the VIX to a level of 20.



Within crypto, DePIN was the one sector of strength, up 2% on the week, while the Launchpad and <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/solana">Solana Ecosystem</a> sectors were the hardest hit, down 15% and 27.6%, respectively.



<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="624" height="348" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/94ba79b5-3c44-4961-afe6-60a3b45372fa">  



Looking at the top winners within DePIN, AR and FIL account for a majority of the sector’s strength, trading up 60% and 31%, respectively.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1483" height="832" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109858" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png?w=1483 1483w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png?w=465 465w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-41.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1483px) 100vw, 1483px" /></figure>



The Solana Ecosystem names are among the hardest hit, with MPLX (-24%), RAY (-21%), and JTO (-19%) making the largest downside moves. JTO’s underperformance comes amid a recent $6 million Paradigm-led seed round for <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/377791/paradigm-harmonic-funding-solana-nasdaq-speed">Harmonic</a>, a team building a new block-building engine on Solana which may seek to compete with Jito’s established integrations. Interestingly, KMNO is the one name in the sector to hold positive, albeit slightly, at only +0.24% on the week.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1478" height="824" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109857" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png?w=1478 1478w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png?w=468 468w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-40.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1478px) 100vw, 1478px" /></figure>



In a bearish trend, it will be increasingly important to focus on the sectors of relative strength, or hold patient for oversold and discounted levels on fundamentally strong names with a clear growth path.



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Downtrends in BTC, ETH and SOL as risk returns to market

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Markets turned sharply risk-off as crypto sectors sold off across the board, while traditional assets held relatively firm. BTC (-4.5%) led the broader pullback, with the Nasdaq 100 (-2.1%) and S&amp;P 500 (-1.1%) also slipping modestly. Gold (-1.5%) also retraced, losing the bid from a mild safe-haven bid amid rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="840" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109819" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Crypto sector performance was deeply bifurcated. Miners (+2.5%) and L2s (+2.0%) were the only bright spots, supported by renewed optimism around scaling and upcoming fee structure upgrades. In stark contrast, AI (-13.4%) and DePIN (-13.6%) were the biggest laggards, unwinding recent speculative gains. Ethereum (-5.3%) and Solana (-8.2%) ecosystems also underperformed as liquidity rotated out of higher-beta names. Launchpads (-4.4%) and DeFi (-3.9%) continued their grind lower, reflecting weakening onchain activity and profit-taking from the prior week’s rally. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="843" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-3.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109823" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-3.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-3.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-3.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-3.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-3.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-3.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-3.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-3.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-3.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The selloff came as traders reassessed risk exposure ahead of key macro catalysts, notably Friday’s US payrolls report and ongoing Fed commentary hinting at “higher-for-longer” rates. As seen below, the probability of a 25bps cut has dropped from over 80% to 70%. A sharp drop in small-cap crypto names suggested thinning liquidity and tighter positioning across majors. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1522" height="729" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-2.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109822" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-2.png?w=1522 1522w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-2.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-2.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-2.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-2.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-2.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-2.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-2.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1522px) 100vw, 1522px" /></figure>



Volatility ticked higher as market breadth narrowed, with BTC dominance inching up while alt sectors bled. Attention now turns to whether this is a short-term flush or the start of a broader de-risking phase heading into year-end. All eyes now turn to upcoming ISM Services PMI, US unemployment and payrolls and CPI over the coming days and weeks, with these releases likely to set crypto’s next leg — whether it’s a deeper pullback or a push higher.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Update</h2>



A rapid retracement in BTC and sliding ETF flows this week signals a shift from accumulation to caution among institutional crypto players. Over Nov. 4-5, BTC tumbled back toward the $100,000 area after topping&nbsp; $126,000 in early October, a drop of more than 15-20%.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="900" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-1.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109821" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-1.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-1.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-1.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-1.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-1.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-1.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-1.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-1.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unnamed-1.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Furthermore, October’s rotation from inflows to redemptions across major BTC ETFs signals waning institutional appetite as macro headwinds bite. After mid-October inflows topping $400 million, late-month sessions saw outflows exceeding $500 million, primarily from IBIT and FBTC, the same vehicles that had driven early Q4 liquidity. Smaller issuers like ARKB and BTCO briefly offset redemptions, but aggregate ETF flows have now been negative for multiple sessions in a row.



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ETF flow data is a sentiment index, and right now, it’s blinking yellow. Monitor aggregate ETF flows (especially IBIT and FBTC) as a real-time risk gauge. If redemptions persist another week, the market could transition from “buy the dip” to “protect capital” mode, pressuring altcoins and BTC volatility sellers alike.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Top of Mind</h2>



We had a particularly eventful week. Market downturns typically coincide with several predictable patterns: hacks emerge, funds are lost and curators make leveraged bets to recover personal losses. This past week followed the same script. Morpho faced significant criticism after a vault curator&#8217;s losses resulted in user fund depletion.&nbsp;



Morpho&#8217;s defense centers on its permissionless architecture: Anyone can create a vault using its smart contracts. This argument has merit; Morpho genuinely cannot control who deploys on its platform, a design choice that likely reduces both liability and operational burden for the core team by eliminating the need for active curation and risk management.&nbsp;



However, this explanation is incomplete. While anyone can permissionlessly launch markets on Morpho, the platform retains discretion over which projects to amplify and promote. Stream was a protocol that Morpho publicly announced as a partner and hosted on its frontend.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1186" height="1156" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-26.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109816" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-26.png?w=1186 1186w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-26.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-26.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-26.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-26.png?w=264 264w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-26.png?w=268 268w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-26.png?w=225 225w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/image-26.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1186px) 100vw, 1186px" /></figure>



You can be a permissionless product, but you need to be careful who you promote. From a brand perspective, this is a problem for Morpho, and something it needs to address. Morpho needs to have further separation between curators and itself.&nbsp;



To be clear, Morpho is not responsible for all vaults given its permissionless nature. However, in our opinion, the protocol should only promote certain curators, and only host certain curators on its frontend. The rest should use an SDK to integrate on their own frontend. We believe that this would be better for Morpho (as well as all modular lending platforms) as it could easily say: “Our contracts are permissionless, vaults are hosted on their own frontends.”



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Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>
</ul>