Research

Tokenized equities have grown nearly 30x, from ~$30M in late 2024 to ~$1B by Q1 2026, yet still represent less than 0.01% of the $120T+ global equity market. The market is shifting from fragmented offshore synthetics toward issuer-sponsored, legally anchored models, with regulated platforms like Securitize consolidating infrastructure economics and NYSE/Nasdaq targeting live tokenized equity venues in Q2 2026.

Research

Prediction markets are scaling rapidly, with Kalshi reaching $14.4B in monthly volume driven by sports. Prices are highly efficient and closely track sportsbooks, but higher fees and thinner liquidity limit execution for size. As a CFTC-regulated platform with nationwide access and no stake limits, Kalshi offers structural advantages over traditional sportsbooks. Revenue is on track to reach $1.3B in 2026, and the platform trades at a premium multiple of around 16.9x forward sales, reflecting its positioning as exchange-like infrastructure.

Research

STRC offers an 11.5% monthly yield on a near-stable $100 instrument, with a Sharpe of ~4.0, ROC tax treatment, and 21 months of dividend coverage from Strategy's cash reserves. The real risk isn't dividend coverage, it's the instrument's dependence on BTC price stability and continuous capital market access. A one-year horizon, sized appropriately, is the most defensible entry.

Research

Leverage on prediction markets is a harder problem than adding margin to an existing venue. Four models are emerging to solve it: the lending pool, the prime broker, the synthetic desk, and the perps exchange. The retail case is intuitive, but the institutional case may be more consequential. Weather markets on Kalshi, with roughly $595M in cumulative volume and a continuous underlying variable, are natural candidates for capital-efficient hedging by energy companies, agricultural traders, and insurers, especially under a continuous-settlement design. In the base case, a platform-wide leverage layer generates approximately $15M in annual fee revenue, with over 87% driven by financing rather than trading fees. Every model, however, shares a dependency on CLOB venue structure, where stale limit orders during jump events create downstream risk that no individual protocol can resolve alone.