Building trust in onchain
capital markets.

Research

OBEX is the most ambitious manifestation of that strategy to date, carrying a $2.5B USDS deployment mandate. Announced in November 2025, it functions as a structured accelerator (part incubator, part capital allocator) designed to manufacture demand for USDS by directing capital toward institutional-grade, yield-generating RWAs.

Research

Sky is the largest yield-bearing stablecoin issuer, with USDS supply up 47% year-to-date to $8.1B, of which $5.7B is deposited in sUSDS. Combined with DAI, total stablecoin supply has reached $12.3B, making Sky the third-largest stablecoin issuer behind Tether and Circle. Sky generates $161M in annualized NII and is transitioning to a fully programmatic mechanism for routing those earnings to tokenholders. This report breaks down the Sky ecosystem, analyzes its financials, assesses the role of Agents, and provides a framework for valuing SKY.

Research

Short duration prediction markets have quietly become one of the biggest drivers of activity on Polymarket, generating nearly 40% of daily fees despite accounting for just 16% of total volume. But beneath the surface, these markets are increasingly dominated by professional algorithmic traders extracting small edges at massive scale while retail traders continue chasing volatility despite consistently losing money. In this report, I break down the wallet level behavior behind these markets, the strategies profitable bots are running, and what Polymarket needs to do to maintain its lead as competition rapidly intensifies.

Research

HIP-4 is being underframed as Hyperliquid’s entry into prediction markets. The bigger shift is that HyperCore is adding a new payoff primitive: HIP-3 expanded what assets deployers could list, while HIP-4 expands how those markets can resolve. That opens the door to bounded payoffs around prices, rates, spreads, volatility, protocol risk, and other measurable outcomes, with prediction markets representing only one expression of a broader design space.