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Research

Western Union is one of the most mispriced setups in payments.Western Union is one of the most mispriced setups in payments. The market is pricing the business for terminal decline, but beneath the headline revenue shrink, Digital and Consumer Services are growing double digits and now represent 40% of the mix. The stablecoin pivot is what makes the risk/reward asymmetric: USDPT flips WU's settlement infrastructure from a cost center into a yield-generating layer, while the company already controls the physical entry and exit points that most crypto-native players lack. At roughly 5x earnings with a 10%+ dividend yield, the downside is cushioned, and our base case points to meaningful upside as WU transitions from decline back toward growth.

Research

On April 18, 2026, attackers minted 116.5k unbacked rsETH via a compromised LayerZero bridge and borrowed about $193M from Aave V3, exposing how Aave’s monolithic pool architecture concentrated hidden leverage in ETH LST looping while socializing tail risk across depositors. The fallout triggered $8.67B in weekly outflows, 100% utilization, and an 8% aWETH discount, showing Aave’s $54M Umbrella WETH backstop may be inadequate for exploit-driven bad debt. As depositors rotated to perceived safer venues like SparkLend, the episode suggests DeFi lending may fragment into unified pools for liquid assets, modular markets for hybrid-risk collateral, and vertically integrated CeDeFi for institutional credit.

Research

Tokenized equities have grown nearly 30x, from ~$30M in late 2024 to ~$1B by Q1 2026, yet still represent less than 0.01% of the $120T+ global equity market. The market is shifting from fragmented offshore synthetics toward issuer-sponsored, legally anchored models, with regulated platforms like Securitize consolidating infrastructure economics and NYSE/Nasdaq targeting live tokenized equity venues in Q2 2026.

Research

Prediction markets are scaling rapidly, with Kalshi reaching $14.4B in monthly volume driven by sports. Prices are highly efficient and closely track sportsbooks, but higher fees and thinner liquidity limit execution for size. As a CFTC-regulated platform with nationwide access and no stake limits, Kalshi offers structural advantages over traditional sportsbooks. Revenue is on track to reach $1.3B in 2026, and the platform trades at a premium multiple of around 16.9x forward sales, reflecting its positioning as exchange-like infrastructure.