Byron Gilliam

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<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“Even when I was little, I was big.”



— William Perry
</blockquote>



<a href="https://pca.st/episode/421fde7c-e03b-452e-b0dc-e12b35d63e4f?t=1087">The first prop bet</a>



Michael Lewis dates the beginning of betting on everything to 1985 when Caesars Palace offered 20-1 odds on William “Refrigerator” Perry scoring a touchdown in the Super Bowl.



He did — a one-yard rumble into the end zone — and Caesars lost at least $250,000 on the bet (a substantial sum in an era when bettors had to call Las Vegas by phone to place wagers).



That was the first known &#8220;proposition” bet — a bet on anything other than the score or result of a game, and as such, the primordial ancestor to today’s prediction markets that offer odds on seemingly everything.



Despite the loss it took, the president of Caesars called it the best bet they’d ever taken: “We’ve had so much publicity on the bet, whatever we’ve lost was worth it.”



“The next day, just about every book in town, your phone started to light up from every big city in the country,” the bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro told Lewis. “They heard about Perry scoring a touchdown.”



Now, bookmakers “write” more business on the props — will the coin toss be heads or tails? what will the first commercial be for? will there be a wardrobe malfunction? — than they do on the games.



Before The Fridge, there were only about three bets to make on the Super Bowl: the winner, the total points, the halftime score.



Now, there are hundreds.



As it turned out, that was the last of The Fridge’s three career touchdowns despite his 10 additional years in the league (playing on defense).



But those three short rumbles set us on the path to today’s world of betting on virtually anything with prediction markets.&nbsp;



(Although we still mostly want to <a href="https://x.com/AlexKolicich/status/1995936524492476798?s=20">bet on sports</a>.)



<a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/freesystems/p/inside-the-markets-aggregating-political?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=android&amp;r=3qcul">A look inside political markets</a>



Here’s a measure of how sophisticated prediction markets have gotten: When Andy Hall watches sports, he’s now gotten in the habit of checking prediction markets right before a big play “because the markets move several seconds before my TV feed does.”



Hall teaches political science at Stanford, so he’s more interested in how prediction markets are “changing how we monitor and understand politics.”



Hall seems cautiously optimistic that booming prediction markets will prove to be a public good because they should offer “a clearer shared picture of a highly complex political environment.”



But he’s also concerned about the “strange feedback loops” they create.



As an example, he cites a Virginia Attorney General race where unverified claims about exit polls circulating on social media moved prediction markets, which caused social media to post the “BREAKING NEWS” of the move in prediction markets, which, in turn, caused the prediction markets to move even further.&nbsp;



That probably did not do the public any good.&nbsp;



Hall notes that prediction markets are also raising questions about what it means to “win” an election.



“In a world where prediction markets are increasingly seen as sources of truth — many people pointed to when Kalshi ‘called’ the mayoral election in New York City as the proof that Mamdani had won — determining these edge cases will be exceedingly fraught.”



So what does it mean if Kalshi calls a close presidential election in 2028?



I’m not sure I want to find out.



(For another foreboding example of prediction markets affecting reality, see this <a href="https://archive.is/IS2cx">story</a> about bettors changing maps of the frontline in Ukraine.)



<a href="https://red.anthropic.com/2025/smart-contracts/">AI agents are very good at hacking smart-contracts</a>



Researchers at Anthropic report that their AI agents successfully exploited 56% of smart contracts known to have vulnerabilities.&nbsp;



More impressively (or worryingly), when tested on 2,849 smart contracts with no known vulnerabilities, the agents also discovered two novel “zero-day” exploits — a demonstration that agents can find new vulnerabilities autonomously.



Perhaps most worryingly, the agents are getting better at an astonishing rate: “Over the last year, frontier models&#8217; exploit revenue…doubled roughly every 1.3 months,” the researchers report.



(They want you to know that no blockchains were harmed in this experiment — they tested on “blockchain simulators.”)



To put that in perspective, Moore&#8217;s Law describes the performance of semiconductors doubling every two years.



These AI agents are doubling their capacity to exploit smart contracts every six weeks.



Amazing. And terrifying.&nbsp;



Anthropic does not have a particular interest in crypto. Instead, it has run this experiment to measure how adept agents will be at hacking code of any sort: “The same capabilities that make agents effective at exploiting smart contracts — such as long-horizon reasoning, boundary analysis, and iterative tool use — extend to all kinds of software.”



Here’s another amazing thing it’s found: “It costs just $1.22 on average for an agent to exhaustively scan a contract for vulnerability.”



“As costs continue to fall,” it concludes, “attackers will deploy more AI agents to probe any code that is along the path to valuable assets, no matter how obscure.”



Consider investing in a lockbox to hold all the physical cash and gold coins we’ll soon be back to using.&nbsp;



<a href="https://epicenter.tv/episode/627-what-will-quantum-computing-change">Quantum computers are coming for crypto first</a>



The risk that quantum computers pose to crypto is often dismissed with a hand-wavy assertion that once the computers get that good, everything will be at risk, so we’ll have bigger things to worry about.&nbsp;



But the latest episode of Epicenter explains why crypto is uniquely vulnerable.



“Most of the classical cryptography community…has been working on this for years,” Stefano Gogioso explains. “They already have protocols they could use if quantum were to happen tomorrow.”



In Web2, “you have centralized authorities,” he adds. If worse comes to worst, “you have banks that would refuse to transact for a day or two.”



In crypto, however, there are two problems: 1) blockchains use “new applications of cryptography” that have gotten little attention from researchers studying quantum resistance and 2) even if we had solutions, there are so many different voices, opinions and vested interests in decentralized crypto, “it would be challenging to change the infrastructure.”



Even more fundamentally, Gogioso notes, “we built an entire ecosystem for the very purpose of making [our data] available to everybody at all times” — which means that once quantum computers are available, they’ll be able to decrypt the entire transaction history of every blockchain.&nbsp;



So, if you’ve been using a privacy chain like Monero to make illicit transactions, you might want to relocate to a non-extradition country sometime soon.&nbsp;



“Monero is already broken,” Gogioso says.&nbsp;



Gogioso also expects governments to use quantum computers to identify who hasn’t been paying capital gains taxes on their crypto winnings: “They’re certainly going to send them a bill for the money they haven’t been paid yet.”



(Personally, I look forward to the refund I&#8217;ll get on all the crypto losses I&#8217;ve been too lazy to report.)



Other fun scenarios include someone moving one of Satoshi&#8217;s coins — how will we know if that’s Satoshi himself or just a guy with a quantum computer?



Or consider a US rival like China targeting Bitcoin — not to make money, but to destabilize a system that&#8217;s become ingrained in US finance.



But the biggest threat of all might be Gogioso’s final prediction: that quantum technology could create a form of permissionless, digital money that solves the double-spend problem without resorting to crypto’s exploit-prone model of distributed consensus.&nbsp;



Whatever the risks, the response has been woefully inadequate.&nbsp;



John Lilic notes that because crypto has a $3 trillion market capitalization, if there’s even a 1% chance of total loss, &#8220;we should be spending $30 billion” on making crypto quantum resistant.



His assessment of the current investment? “We’re not spending anything.”



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Thursday links: Prediction markets, agent hackers, quantum risks

Kate Irwin

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-drop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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How will we find new AI agents to use in the near future? What could a decentralized, more open AI ecosystem look like? And how will AI agents make payments for us?



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-foundation-team-ai-integration">ERC-8004</a>, a new Ethereum technical standard first unveiled <a href="https://medium.com/survival-tech/the-story-behind-erc-8004-next-steps-ec46c18d1879">this summer</a>, aims to be an answer to all that. The <a href="https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-8004">standard</a> is being peer-reviewed, and its smart contracts were launched on the Ethereum testnet this month. MetaMask AI Lead Marco de Rossi, Ethereum Foundation AI lead Davide Crapis, Google engineer Jordan Ellis, and Coinbase Developer Platform engineering lead Erik Reppel co-created the protocol, which also incorporates feedback and contributions from a slew of other crypto companies and projects.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">LIVE NOW: AI Agents can discover and trust each other without a central intermediary. This lays the foundation for open agent economies. ERC-8004 v1, co-authored with <a href="https://twitter.com/DavideCrapis?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DavideCrapis</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/ethereumfndn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Ethereumfndn</a>), <a href="https://twitter.com/jordan0ellis?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Jordan0Ellis</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/Google?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Google</a>) and &#8211; welcome Erik! &#8211; <a href="https://twitter.com/programmer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@programmer</a> (<a href="https://twitter.com/coinbase?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Coinbase</a>) is now… <a href="https://t.co/purYaxWk1P">pic.twitter.com/purYaxWk1P</a>&mdash; Marco De Rossi (@marco_derossi) <a href="https://twitter.com/marco_derossi/status/1976257886390002116?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 9, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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ERC-8004 lets builders and users mint AI agents like they’re NFTs and delegate them using those ERC-721 rails. It makes AI agents discoverable, and can hold agent reputation scores onchain. The AI agents can use <a href="https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/x402/welcome">x402</a>, a new open payment protocol developed by Coinbase.&nbsp;



Agent developers could ultimately charge for access to their tools and agents, who could be deployed for a range of use cases around user productivity, trading, payments or even reshape consumers’ <a href="https://clam.capital/blogs/future-of-media-is-a-bank">subscription diets</a>. At some point, perhaps AI agents could even hire each other to complete different tasks, like a more open version of what Google has developed with <a href="https://developers.googleblog.com/en/a2a-a-new-era-of-agent-interoperability/">A2A</a>.



“Maybe it’s early to think about the business model fully, even if x402 is clearly the best monetization source for AI agents, but we should focus a lot on use cases and not just on the infra,” De Rossi told me in an interview.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">x402 will unlock pay-per-use models that save users real money Many of us today pay $100+/month across ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok &#8211; rarely hitting limits Future: Imagine paying only $20 for what you actually use Add streaming, articles, content sampling platforms, and the…&mdash; Jake Hiew (@jakehiew) <a href="https://twitter.com/jakehiew/status/1983099386038190152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 28, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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The agents themselves aren’t being stored on Ethereum because, as De Rossi explained, running AI agents in such a way is very complicated and would require “a lot of overhead.”&nbsp;



So it’s not going to be that decentralized. But there’s definitely a middle path that 8004 unlocks for developers between a completely closed ecosystem and something completely open and decentralized.&nbsp;



In this vision, users or companies host their own AI agents on their own devices or servers. Then, they use the blockchain, via 8004, as an open app store of sorts to share their models with others and receive ratings and feedback.&nbsp;



For this to have broad consumer appeal, AI agent explorers of sorts — pretty frontends with checkout integrations — would have to be built for humans. De Rossi said that roughly half a dozen teams in crypto are already working on making something to this effect a reality.



“The current situation is that you see stuff on the [block] explorer which is totally unusable,” he said.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Everyone’s hyped about x402 right now. Most haven’t realized it’s just one piece of something way bigger. The real shift that will define Crypto × AI is Agentic Commerce. AI agents autonomously trading, negotiating, and executing with minimal human input.<a href="https://twitter.com/a16zcrypto?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@a16zcrypto</a>’s state… <a href="https://t.co/NTgNsMjjaR">pic.twitter.com/NTgNsMjjaR</a>&mdash; Soubhik Deb (@soubhik_deb) <a href="https://twitter.com/soubhik_deb/status/1982823993645445359?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 27, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Building something that anyone can use can be a difficult line to walk, though, if various platforms decide to restrict the visibility of certain types of AI agents.



But maybe this will happen in a more organic way if the crypto community is able to, collectively, give agents feedback and therefore shape their reputations. Agents with better reputations could get more visibility, while questionable agents with lower scores fade into the background (but remain accessible).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="653" height="611" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-141.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109580" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-141.png?w=653 653w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-141.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-141.png?w=275 275w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-141.png?w=279 279w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-141.png?w=234 234w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-141.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 653px) 100vw, 653px" /></figure>



“The bad outcome is we have many different silos, like app stores, [and] that’s it,” De Rossi said of the future of AI agent discoverability. “That’s just worse for consumers.”&nbsp;



“If we want to make this happen in an interoperable way, there are two possibilities, probably. The US government,” De Rossi said with a laugh, “or the infrastructure owned by nobody, which is the blockchain.”



Pushing some vague ideals of whatever “Web3” is supposed to be isn’t going to spur blockchain adoption in the AI industry, De Rossi argued.



“Who cares? The point is, how can we have an infra that is neutral, and this is understandable to everybody. It’s public infrastructure.”



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Ethereum could be the ultimate app store for AI agents

Macauley Peterson

Two days after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/google-ai-payments-protocol-stablecoin">unveiling</a> AP2 — a universal payment layer for AI agents that supports everything from credit cards to stablecoins — <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/google">Google</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/eigenlayer">EigenLayer</a> have released <a href="https://x.com/eigenlayer/status/1968697050452869438">details</a> of their partnership to bring verifiability and restaking security to the stack, using <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ethereum">Ethereum</a>.



In addition to enabling verifiable compute and slashing-backed payment coordination, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/eigencloud-launch-a16z-eigenlayer">EigenCloud</a> will support insured and sovereign AI agents, which introduce consequences for failure or deviation from specified behavior.



Sovereign agents are positioned as autonomous actors that can own property, make decisions, and execute actions independently — think smart contracts with embedded intelligence.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">From demos to dollars</h2>



AP2 extends Google’s agent-to-agent (A2A) protocol using the HTTP 402 status code — long reserved for “payment required” — to standardize payment requests between agents across different networks. It already supports stablecoins like USDC, and Coinbase has demoed an agent checkout using its Wallet-as-a-Service.



Paired with a system like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lit-protocol-vincent-ai-agents">Lit Protocol’s Vincent</a> — which enforces per-action policies and key custody at signing — Google’s AP2 with EigenCloud’s verifiability and cross-chain settlement could form an end-to-end trust loop.



Payments between agents aren’t as simple as they are often made to sound by “Crypto x AI” LARPs. When an AI agent requests a payment in <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/usdc">USDC</a> on <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/base">Base</a> and the payer’s funds are locked in ETH on <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/arbitrum">Arbitrum</a>, the transaction stalls — unless something abstracts the bridging, swapping and delivery. That’s where EigenCloud comes in.



Sreeram Kannan, founder of EigenLayer, said the integration will create agents that not only run on-chain verifiable compute, but are also economically incentivized to behave within programmable bounds.



Through restaked operators, EigenCloud powers a verifiable payment service that handles asset routing and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/cross-chain-bridge">chain abstraction</a>, with dishonest behavior subject to slashing. It also introduces cryptographic accountability to the agents themselves, enabling proofs that an agent actually executed the task it was paid for.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Honestly, most of the “AI agent” hype falls apart once you ask: how do I trust this thing? This solves for that.&mdash; brutal (@crypto_brutal_) <a href="https://twitter.com/crypto_brutal_/status/1968699106785735043?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 18, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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It’s a crowded field, with many projects vying to anchor agent settlement and accountability; EigenCloud faces rivals ranging from Autonolas’ <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/olas">OLAS</a> staking layer and the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily/issue/post_8f914d32-6a47-400b-b689-72368982abc3">Eliza</a> (formerly AI16z) agent developer ecosystem, to <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/near">NEAR’s Chain Signatures</a> intent stack, and <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/0xresearch/72d82e36-f79a-11ee-b172-db0b0936b9a2">Ritual’s verifiable AI compute</a>.



Still, if AP2 becomes the standard interface for billions of autonomous agents, EigenCloud’s restaked security and cross-chain payment verification could become indispensable infrastructure.



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Google Cloud taps EigenLayer to bring trust to agentic payments

Onchain AI agents are edging out of the lab.&nbsp;



Lit Protocol’s agent stack, Vincent, now gives developers a way to ship non-custodial automation that actually touches money, but under explicit, enforceable limits set by users and app authors. An “early access” launch just went live, Blockworks has learned exclusively.



Lit frames the core model simply: policies (guardrails) and abilities (discrete actions like swap/borrow/bridge) that are bound together at deploy time and enforced at runtime, according to co-founder David Sneider.



“Vincent Policies (the guardrails and controls) are created and exposed by Vincent application developers based on any given use case,” Sneider told Blockworks. “For example, a trading app might expose a ‘spend policy’ or ‘token allowlist policy,’ which users would be able to fine-tune based on their own needs and preferences.”



Under the hood, Vincent rides on Lit’s existing “defense-in-depth” key model: Threshold-split keys run inside <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-mev-trusted-execution-environments">secure enclaves</a> (TEEs), and the enclaves execute only when an onchain policy check passes. In practice, that means permissions like spend caps, allowlists, time windows and rate limits are evaluated before any signing or contract call occurs. A key recent improvement is how easily developers can now package and enforce those rules through Vincent at the point of execution.



According to examples from a “<a href="https://github.com/LIT-Protocol/vincent-starter-kit">starter kit</a>,” developers can define and expose app-specific policies as needed; the platform now supports both narrowly scoped and broader smart-contract permissions, with one-line SDK calls to invoke them.



In Sneider’s view, the job is to let agents act, but only inside well-defined lanes.



That’s effective, according to David Johnston, the lead code maintainer at Morpheus, which has built in Lit Protocol as part of its reference open-source agent work.



“MPC enables good spending caps, whitelists of agents, and limited time approvals for agents to access user funds,” Johnston told Blockworks. “These types of capabilities should be native to all agents,” he said, adding that it’s safer to integrate Lit rather than “rolling their own, less battle-tested solutions.” 



DeFi-specific risk hooks like <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/mev">MEV</a> protection and dealing with oracles are being left to app authors. “They also have the power to define all of their data sources [and] integrations with external protocols, which can help address possible constraints like these,” Sneider said, referring to aspects like slippage caps, private order flow routes, RFQ checks, or price-staleness guards. That stance keeps the core platform minimal while allowing domain-specialized teams the flexibility to customize.



Automated agents are not magic, and Morpheus’ Johnston notes “all the normal attack vectors and failure modes from DeFi will apply to agents leveraging DeFi, so the best means of mitigating them is to leverage L2s that have eliminated many of these risks with their structure, such as ordering transactions to avoid attacks.”



Vincent already produces success and failure signals and proofs for every execution, but those remain local to the developer’s app rather than being published to a wider registry. The roadmap points to privacy-preserving attestations that could travel across registries and agent networks, such that compliance proven in one venue can be trusted in another.



“The bigger vision is that agents will be able to surface these attestations in privacy-preserving ways into shared registries like <a href="https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/erc-8004-trustless-agents/25098">ERC-8004</a> and interagent communication protocols like A2A [Agent-to-Agent],” Sneider said. Think verifiable credentials (e.g. “I’ve complied with XYZ policy 100 times”) broadcast into a shared agent ecosystem, where other agents or platforms can trust them without re-auditing.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Beyond DeFi</h2>



Crucially, the agent landscape is expected to evolve to new use cases other than pure DeFi automation, to encompass credentials and APIs that real businesses live on, said Sneider.



“Our focus at the moment is on managing more secret types, like passwords and API keys so that agents can log into apps and we can break the current paradigm of agents being embedded within apps,” he said. “We’re also continuing to build out more Policy and Ability examples across many different chains and protocols (i.e. BTC and Solana), to give developers more jumping-off points and make it simpler to start launching agents with Vincent.”



If this sounds like the agent version of account abstraction, it’s intentional. Back in 2024, Sneider argued that “key, material signing is like the ultimate unifier amongst distributed systems, which are really just like state and signing at the end of the day.”



Tie that to enforceable policies and you get something closer to production-grade autonomy, as we see starting to happen now.&nbsp;



“This idea that everybody is going to have essentially a quant in their pocket to manage their funds seems pretty, pretty coherent and is starting to come together.”



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