Why BTC’s record monthly growth streak could be in jeopardy
Profit-taking among spot bitcoin ETF investors could contribute to a downward BTC price trend in April, one analyst notes
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Though bitcoin’s price has gone up in each of the last seven months, investors looking to take advantage of profits could disrupt that streak, industry watchers note.
Bitcoin’s price concluded at roughly $71,300, marking a nearly 17% increase from its value of about $61,150 at the end of February, according to Fineqia research data.
March was the seventh consecutive month during which the price of bitcoin (BTC) rose, marking a record streak for the asset.
Demand for spot bitcoin ETFs has been a main driver of the streak, said Fineqia research analyst Matteo Greco.
Read more: ETFs helped ‘legitimize’ bitcoin ahead of halving: Q&A
Anticipation ramped up for the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the final quarter of 2023. The Securities and Exchange Commission indeed cleared such funds to start trading in January, and the offerings have cumulatively brought roughly $12 billion of net inflows.
While bitcoin’s price rose roughly 65% during the first quarter of 2024, BTC sat at about $68,230 at Noon Friday — down 3.5% from seven days ago.
Despite the overall strong demand for spot bitcoin ETFs, flows into the funds during the first few days of April have been slower than average.
Spot bitcoin ETFs notched net outflows of $86 million on the first day of April, according to Farside Investors data. Net inflows amounted to $367 million in the following three days combined.
While predicting short-term price movements is always challenging, Greco noted, historical patterns show it’s common to observe price dips leading up to the halving event.
Read more: The Bitcoin halving is about a month away — here’s what you can expect
“Additionally, we’re currently witnessing increased profit-taking among both cryptocurrency investors and [traditional finance] ETF investors,” Greco told Blockworks. “This natural behavior follows seven months of continuous growth, suggesting the possibility of a downward trend in April or in one of the following months.”
Sergei Gorev, risk manager at fintech platform YouHodler, said that bitcoin remains in the price consolidation phase ahead of the upcoming bitcoin halving, when per-block mining rewards are reduced.
“It is obvious in the market that investors who bought BTC at a lower price are now taking profits,” he said. “However, there are still many crypto enthusiasts who are waiting for prices to fall in order to buy further.”
Read more: The 2024 halving could usher in a new era for Bitcoin
There are currently no significant negative factors in the crypto market that could lead to the seven-month bitcoin price rise streak ending in April, Gorev argued.
“But still, there is a little possibility of a black swan appearing in the stock market, which could drive risk assets, including the crypto market, down,” he added.
Others remain even more bullish.
Will McDonough, founder of merchant bank Corestone Capital, noted that the spot bitcoin ETFs have lowered the barrier for entry into the asset class for many already. He anticipates this trend will expand as the major brokerage firms start to allow allocations in such products.
Read more: Restricting access to growing bitcoin ETFs becoming ‘hard to justify’
This new demographic of high-net-worth investors entering the space is set to coincide with the bitcoin halving slated in a couple weeks.
“I can see bitcoin easily reaching six figures by the end of the year,” McDonough told Blockworks. “Absent some massive messaging around the presidential election cycle about banning blockchain adoption, I don’t think anything can stop this momentum this year.”
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