Brianna Beckford


<p>On this episode of &#8220;<a href="https://youtu.be/KJX9uqZVzEA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">On the Margin</a>,&#8221; Blockworks Co-founder Michael Ippolito is joined by Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, and PlanB, the anonymous quant investor and creator of the bitcoin S2F model.</p>



<p>Timmer and PlanB discuss the current macro forces that are driving markets, from Fed rate hikes to yield curve inversion and equity market valuations. In the second half of the discussion, the guests debate valuation models for bitcoin, how current market conditions could effect bitcoin and what the next phase of bitcoin will be as it enters the geopolitical landscape.</p>



<p>They also cover:  </p>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>if the 4-year cycle is over</li><li>the equity market outlook</li><li><span style="color: initial;">and so much more</span></li></ul>



<p>Watch the full episode below! 👇</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="The Macro Forces Driving Bitcoin | Plan B &amp; Jurrien Timmer" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KJX9uqZVzEA?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div></figure>



<p>&#8220;On the Margin&#8221; is a two-part show.&nbsp;Once a week, Mike interviews industry experts. At the end of the week, he is joined by a co-host where they break down the top crypto and macro stories. Episodes go live every Wednesday and Saturday morning.</p>



<p>Subscribe to &#8220;On the Margin&#8221; today on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-margin/id1558223079" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Apple</a> or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2yFL2nSsQucf1rzdEKbFZY" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Spotify</a>, or watch episodes on <a href="https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvER9nHSRN3xVs_p-dl7L7K_ZgL6lSudu" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">YouTube</a>.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



<p><strong><strong><strong>Get the day’s top crypto news and insights delivered to your inbox every evening.&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://cms.blockworks.co/newsletter/?source=end" rel="noreferrer noopener">Subscribe to Blockworks’ free newsletter</a>&nbsp;now.</strong></strong> </strong></p>



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Bitcoin

Podcast: The Macro Forces Driving Bitcoin | PlanB and Jurrien Timmer

Sam Martin

<div id="highlights-block_109da663053894bbbda91adbce4f10da" class="highlights">
        <ul>
                <li>BTC searches for direction in the midst of mixed sentiment among market participants</li>
                <li>Ubisoft, a large traditional game developer, announces in-game NFT integration</li>
            </ul>
    
</div>



<p>Minor liquidations have taken place since bitcoin&#8217;s (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">BTC</a>) price topped out earlier today near $52,000.</p>



<p>BTC could be a beneficiary of lower bond yields as we enter into the new year.</p>



<p>PlanB&#8217;s BTC stock-to-flow model appears to be invalidated.</p>



<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s hash rate has made a full recovery since China banned mining earlier in 2021. </p>



<p>Three Arrow Capital purchased $400 million in <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/eth">ETH</a>.</p>



<p>Ubisoft became the first major game studio to implement in-game NFTs.</p>



<p>First Trust filed for a metaverse ETF.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Latest in Macro:</strong></h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>S&amp;P 500: 4,686, +2.07%</li>



<li>NASDAQ: 15,686, +3.03%</li>



<li>Gold: $1,784, +0.20%</li>



<li>WTI Crude Oil: $72.03, +3.98%</li>



<li>10-Year Treasury: 1.468%, +0.085%</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Latest in Crypto:</strong></h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">BTC</a>: $50,657, +0.54%</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/price/eth">ETH</a>: $4,316, -0.51%</li>



<li>ETH/BTC: 0.0850, -1.32%</li>



<li>BTC.D: 41.16%, +0.42%</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">BTC</h3>



<p>BTC continues to hover near $50,000 as it tries to find direction. The rally up to $52,000 was short lived, as levered longs have been liquidated in recent hours — albeit small numbers when zooming out. </p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="374" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-2-1024x374.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12299" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-2-1024x374.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-2-1024x374.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-2-1024x374.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-2-1024x374.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-2-1024x374.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-2-1024x374.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-2-1024x374.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-2-1024x374.png?w=1370 1370w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Coinglass</figcaption></figure></div>


<p>While macro uncertainty has digital asset investors nervous, some traditional financial analysts seem to think that the next year could be bright for crypto despite the backdrop of tightening monetary policy. </p>



<p>&#8220;Bitcoin will face initial headwinds if the stock market drops, but to the extent that declining equity prices pressure bond yields and incentivize more central-bank liquidity, the crypto may come out a primary beneficiary,&#8221; reads <a href="https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/10/1489771_Crypto-Dev2021Outlook.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bloomberg&#8217;s 2022 Crypto Outlook</a> report. &#8220;Our graphic depicts U.S. yields potentially on a trajectory to follow Japan and Europe into negative territory. The upcoming digital reserve asset may be a top standout to benefit.&#8221;</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="693" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.02.10-PM-1024x693.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12300" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.02.10-PM-1024x693.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.02.10-PM-1024x693.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.02.10-PM-1024x693.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.02.10-PM-1024x693.png?w=380 380w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.02.10-PM-1024x693.png?w=386 386w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.02.10-PM-1024x693.png?w=324 324w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.02.10-PM-1024x693.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.02.10-PM-1024x693.png?w=1182 1182w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Bloomberg</figcaption></figure></div>


<p>The crypto fear and greed index is currently sitting at 25, <a href="https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according</a> to data from alternative.me. A lower number indicates fear and a higher number indicates greed on a 100 point scale.</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="722" height="640" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.08.59-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12301" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.08.59-PM.png?w=722 722w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.08.59-PM.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.08.59-PM.png?w=290 290w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.08.59-PM.png?w=294 294w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.08.59-PM.png?w=247 247w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-6.08.59-PM.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 722px) 100vw, 722px" /></figure></div>


<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Stock-to-flow model looks to be invalidated</h3>



<p><a href="https://planbtc.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">PlanB&#8217;s</a> renowned stock-to-flow model is looking more invalidated. On Oct. 31, PlanB took to <a href="https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1454962054297788417?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Twitter</a> calling for $98,000 by the end of November and $135,000 by the end of December. BTC would need to have a remarkable end of year run to give his famous model a chance of survival. </p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="464" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-3-1024x464.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12302" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-3-1024x464.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-3-1024x464.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-3-1024x464.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-3-1024x464.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-3-1024x464.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-3-1024x464.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-3-1024x464.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/bybt_chart-6-3-1024x464.png?w=1104 1104w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Coinglass</figcaption></figure></div>


<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin network hash rate</h3>



<p>The Bitcoin network&#8217;s hash rate has almost fully recovered since the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/5/24/china-crackdown-forces-crypto-mining-operators-to-end-operations" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">China mining</a> ban earlier this year. The recent strength of the world&#8217;s largest digital asset&#8217;s hash rate could be viewed as a sign of the network&#8217;s health.</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/@Guzmanpintos-1024x495.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-12303" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/@Guzmanpintos-1024x495.jpg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/@Guzmanpintos-1024x495.jpg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/@Guzmanpintos-1024x495.jpg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/@Guzmanpintos-1024x495.jpg?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/@Guzmanpintos-1024x495.jpg?w=2048 2048w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/@Guzmanpintos-1024x495.jpg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/@Guzmanpintos-1024x495.jpg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/@Guzmanpintos-1024x495.jpg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/@Guzmanpintos-1024x495.jpg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: @Guzmanpintos</figcaption></figure></div>


<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Three Arrow Capital loading up on ETH</h3>



<p>Roughly 92K ETH were purchased on FTX, Binance and Coinbase and sent to wallets marked as Three Arrow Capital (3ac) by <a href="https://www.nansen.ai" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nansen</a>, according to <a href="https://twitter.com/WuBlockchain/status/1468159951780532228?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Wu Blockchain</a>. </p>



<p>The wallet address of 3ac can be found <a href="https://etherscan.io/address/0x4862733b5fddfd35f35ea8ccf08f5045e57388b3" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">here</a> on Etherscan.</p>



<p>The move comes as a surprise to many digital asset investors. Zhu Su, CEO and CIO at 3ac, wrote recently on Twitter: &#8220;Yes I have abandoned Ethereum despite supporting it in the past. Yes Ethereum has abandoned its users despite supporting them in the past.&#8221;</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)</h3>



<p>Ubisoft, the game developer behind the popular Tom Clancy series, will become the first major game studio to incorporate NFTs in-game, <a href="https://decrypt.co/87752/ubisoft-first-major-gaming-company-launch-in-game-nfts" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according</a> to a Decrypt report.</p>



<p>Trading data from <a href="https://opensea.io/rankings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">OpenSea</a> and <a href="https://solanalysis.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Solanalysis</a> of some of the top Solana and Ethereum projects can be found below:</p>


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="334" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.21-PM-1024x334.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12297" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.21-PM-1024x334.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.21-PM-1024x334.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.21-PM-1024x334.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.21-PM-1024x334.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.21-PM-1024x334.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.21-PM-1024x334.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.21-PM-1024x334.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.21-PM-1024x334.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.21-PM-1024x334.png?w=2048 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Top Ethereum Projects</figcaption></figure></div>

<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="284" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.28-PM-1024x284.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12298" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.28-PM-1024x284.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.28-PM-1024x284.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.28-PM-1024x284.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.28-PM-1024x284.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.28-PM-1024x284.png?w=2048 2048w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.28-PM-1024x284.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.28-PM-1024x284.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.28-PM-1024x284.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-07-at-5.33.28-PM-1024x284.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Top Solana Projects </figcaption></figure></div>


<p>If you made it this far, thanks for reading! I am looking forward to catching up on tomorrow.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/>



<p><strong>Get the day’s top crypto news and insights delivered to your inbox every evening.&nbsp;<a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/newsletter/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Subscribe to Blockworks’ free newsletter</a>&nbsp;now.</strong></p>



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