Anthropic Files its S-1

Anthropic, the company behind Claude, filed its S-1 yesterday with the SEC just before market open. Anthropic shares, under the ticker ANT, are slated to be listed on the Nasdaq during the week of November 16. Within hours of the filing, TradeXYZ, a HIP-3 deployer on Hyperliquid, listed a pre-IPO perpetual for trading. However, it had been beaten to the punch by a more nascent deployer, Entropy, which had listed Anthropic valuation perpetuals back in August. While the two markets differ in what they are anchored to, they both largely trade on their own order books, which have converged quickly to one another thus far. Both markets value Anthropic at nearly double its Series H valuation.

TradeXYZ’s xyz:ANT opened at $138, fell sharply to $109 within 45 minutes, and has since recovered to about $116 on roughly $13M of volume. While the exact share count of ANT has not been disclosed yet, the S-1 mentions that 846.8M shares have been given to the Public Benefit Fund, representing 5% of fully diluted shares. This implies roughly 16.9B fully diluted ANT shares, bringing xyz:ANT’s Anthropic valuation to around $1.96T (at a share price of $116). Entropy’s io:ANTH market trades on the company’s valuation rather than per share price. The market launched in mid-August at just under $1.8T, peaking at around $2.3T in early September, before settling at an implied valuation of $1.89T. Entropy’s Anthropic market has processed around $669M in cumulative volume since its launch, and boasts $53M in open interest.

Entropy’s io:ANTH reacted instantly to the filing, falling 1.7% on $4.1M in 15-minute volume. xyz:ANT’s launch premium over io:ANTH collapsed from 23% to 3.6% rapidly, with the market down 16.3% from its open. Since the filing, both markets have collectively processed $36.7M in notional volume.

While both perps offer a live read on how traders are pricing the Anthropic IPO, the S-1 provides the first detailed look at the business’s inner workings. Quarterly revenue grew from $787M in Q2 2025 to $11.56B in Q2 2026, a 1,368% YoY increase, with revenue more than doubling from Q1 alone. 

Over the past six quarters, compute and infrastructure costs fell from 251% of revenue to 48%, allowing Anthropic to post its first GAAP operating profit of $974M in Q2 2026. Although the filing shows an $80.7B net loss for the first half of 2026, $72.4B of that stems from the non-cash cost of marking its convertible notes and SAFEs up to a higher valuation. On an adjusted basis, the company earned $2.67B over the same stretch. With net revenue retention of roughly 900% and the number of customers spending over $100K a year growing from just under 1,000 to more than 11,900 in just twelve months, the perps value the company at just over 40x its annualized Q2 revenue.

Until a price range is set closer to the IPO date, the xyz:ANT and io:ANTH markets remain the closest thing to a live market price for what is shaping up to be one of the largest IPOs on record. Whether traders are correctly pricing the company at nearly double its last private round will become clear in mid-November, at which point xyz:ANT converts to a standard equity perp and io:ANTH converts under its IPO terms.

— Toma

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