Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">subscribe</a>.



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After a decade of fund issuers trying to offer US bitcoin ETFs, those launches in January 2024 were a huge deal. Ether ETFs then hit US markets six months later.&nbsp; Today marks yet another date to remember, with the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) going live on the New York Stock Exchange.



“This is one of the big assets; it’s on the Mount Rushmore of crypto,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told me. “We don’t have that many of these launches, so this is a really exciting moment.”



Solana’s market cap is roughly $110 billion — behind only BTC ($2.3 trillion), ETH ($495 billion), tether ($183 billion), XRP ($158 billion) and BNB ($156 billion).



Before we get into the demand for a US solana ETF, let’s start with launch timing — as Bitwise got to market ahead of competitors. Hougan admitted to me that a legal mind — like that of Multicoin Capital general counsel Greg Xethalis — could perhaps more eloquently explain what went down:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">OK, how did we go from Gov Shutdown (probably) means no ETFs to ETFs coming tomorrow? A break it down thread. First, Bitwise now has all five green check marks ✅ below. <a href="https://t.co/GPBuEWhJze">https://t.co/GPBuEWhJze</a>&mdash; Greg Xethalis (@xethalis) <a href="https://twitter.com/xethalis/status/1982936802467225837?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 27, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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The Bitwise <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2045872/000121390025097494/ea0260657-s1a5_bitwise.htm">S-1</a> filed on Oct. 8 included the necessary language that Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart pointed out (below). That gave BSOL a path to launch 20 days later.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">NEW: YES&#8230; We expect Solana, Litecoin and HBAR to get their first pure spot ETFs here in the US this week as has been reported. But how did this happen? Almost certainly due to language in a guidance letter from the SEC&#39;s division of corporate finance which came in the form of… <a href="https://t.co/WdswvuHh2n">pic.twitter.com/WdswvuHh2n</a>&mdash; James Seyffart (@JSeyff) <a href="https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1982928854411878821?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 27, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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“As an issuer, you can’t let the government being dysfunctional halt your business plans; we don’t know when the shutdown will be over,” Hougan said. “These filings were complete, they were ready and so under the rules set up in the [Investment Company Act of 1940] they sort of marched to market if you don’t have that delaying amendment.”



Bitwise intends to stake 100% of the Fund’s SOL holdings — aiming to maximize exposure to average staking rewards around 7%. BSOL looks to meet redemptions on a T+2 basis given a typical “cooldown” period — to unstake SOL — of 48 hours or less. During extraordinary circumstances, Page 90 of the fund’s S-1 describes what would happen:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large wp-duotone-dark-grayscale"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="282" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-144.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109598" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-144.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-144.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-144.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-144.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-144.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-144.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-144.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-144.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-144.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



With that out of the way, what sort of demand will we even see for SOL ETFs?



Hougan himself said at DAS London earlier this month that many institutional investors driving this bull market <a href="https://x.com/strack_ben/status/1977725150456909840">“can’t pronounce solana.”</a> BlackRock’s Matt Kunke told me on stage at the same event that the world’s largest asset manager was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blackrock-crypto-etf-focus">holding off on pursuing a SOL ETF</a> given many institutions still need education on BTC and ETH.&nbsp;



What a bunch of institutions/financial advisers do want to invest in, though, is stablecoin and tokenization growth, Hougan argued. It’s hard to find people bearish about the potential of those segments. Stablecoin market cap is nearing $300 billion, while the tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) market stands at roughly $35 billion.   



While ETH is the dominant player here, Solana has a material and growing share. Solana Policy Institute president Kristin Smith labeled the blockchain as “critical financial infrastructure for the future of the digital economy.”



This chart from <a href="http://rwa.xyz">RWA.xyz</a> chart shows the value of stablecoins/tokenized RWAs on each chain:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="742" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-145.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109599" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-145.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-145.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-145.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-145.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-145.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-145.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-145.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-145.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-145.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



 “It’s hard to know over the next five years who will win,” Hougan said. “So I think from the traditional audience, they’re going to want to own both ETH and solana.”



US bitcoin ETFs had unprecedented success out of the gate. ETH products initially saw underwhelming interest — though flows have picked up in recent months, Blockworks Research <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/crypto-etfs">data</a> shows:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="1039" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-143.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109597" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-143.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-143.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-143.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-143.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-143.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-143.png?w=396 396w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-143.png?w=402 402w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-143.png?w=337 337w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-143.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Narrative and timing are critical for ETF launches to be successful. BSOL comes to market when this <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/das-day-2-tokenization">stablecoin/tokenization theme</a> is more defined. ETH ETFs didn’t have that tailwind back in July 2024.



Thus, Hougan said of solana products: “Adjusted for size, I think it may be the most successful ETP launch of all time.”



Not necessarily anywhere near the $38 billion or so of net inflows <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/one-year-since-bitcoin-etf-approval">bitcoin ETFs saw in their first year</a>, he clarified — calling that an “absurd comparison.” But flows that represent a larger percentage of the much smaller SOL market cap.&nbsp;



While we focused on SOL today, it’s worth noting that Canary Capital’s hedera (HBAR) and litecoin (LTC) ETFs also went live today on the Nasdaq. The government will likely need to reopen before we get <a href="https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1980775078922166338">the full flood of crypto ETF launches</a> the market ultimately expects. When that happens is anyone’s guess.



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Bitwise

Inside Bitwise’s milestone solana ETF launch

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">subscribe</a>.



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As we detail what to watch on this week’s crypto/macro front, let’s first look back to some telling economic data. Friday’s CPI report showed overall and core inflation increased 3% over the 12 months ending in September. This impacted risk assets, with S&amp;P 500 futures rising to a new record and bitcoin reclaiming the $111,000 level. BTC continued to climb early Monday, hovering 6% higher than a week ago by midday.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1402" height="872" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-127.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109545" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-127.png?w=1402 1402w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-127.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-127.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-127.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-127.png?w=413 413w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-127.png?w=420 420w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-127.png?w=352 352w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-127.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1402px) 100vw, 1402px" /></figure>



The “softer-than-expected” CPI print “reinforced the Fed’s dovish pivot,” according to 21Shares crypto investment specialist David Hernandez.



CME Group’s FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a> — using 30-day fed funds futures prices — put the chance of a 25bps interest rate cut this week at 96.7%, as of Monday morning. The chance of two 25bps cuts by the end of the year stood at roughly 94%.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="645" height="112" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-126.png" alt="" class="wp-image-109544" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-126.png?w=645 645w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-126.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-126.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-126.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-126.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-126.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px" /></figure>



We’ll be listening to Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“Any potential easing aimed at supporting a softening labor market is unlikely to change the broader momentum: capital continues to flow toward Bitcoin, recognizing its growing role as a resilient anchor asset in an increasingly complex financial landscape,” Xapo Bank’s Gadi Chait said in a statement.



BTC’s return for October was barely in the green just after Noon ET. If it holds throughout the week, the “Uptober” narrative would be satisfied for a seventh-straight year: <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/794e9108-96e6-4561-b57a-ac22115957b6" width="624" height="376">



The latest BTC bounce came two weeks after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-liquidations-drive-historic-market-turbulence">a historic wave of liquidations</a> rocked crypto markets. This event “dramatically reduced excess positioning across major centralized venues,” Hernandez noted.



“With positioning cleaned up and macro easing now confirmed rather than speculated, the foundation for upside looks materially stronger,” he added.



Not everyone is bullish about BTC’s near-term outlook.&nbsp;



Ledn CIO John Glover noted Friday that, according to his Elliott Wave Theory analysis, the bull run that started in November 2022 has been completed. He suspects a correction (Wave IV) — to be completed in mid-to-late 2026 — resulting in BTC dipping to somewhere between $84,000 and $100,000. It would then go up from there, his chart shows:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1430" height="938" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-128.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109546" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-128.png?w=1430 1430w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-128.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-128.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-128.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-128.png?w=392 392w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-128.png?w=398 398w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-128.png?w=334 334w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-128.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1430px) 100vw, 1430px" /></figure>



“Welcome to the Bear Market of 2025/26!&#8221; Glover added in an email.&nbsp;



Looking beyond BTC, we continue to be on crypto ETF watch. We’re hearing rumblings that the government shutdown does not mean we won’t see any movement on altcoin ETF proposals.&nbsp;



Asset manager Bitwise <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2045872/000121390025101434/ea0262034-8a12ba1_bitwise.htm">filed</a> a Form 8-A for its proposed Solana Staking ETF, and the firm <a href="https://x.com/BitwiseInvest/status/1982810396000973012">tweeted</a> “Big week incoming” this morning. The firm declined to comment.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Canary just filed 8-As for Litecoin and HBAR ETFs joining Bitwise who filed one for Solana. These are the ones rumored to be poss looking to launch (along w Grayscale solana) this week despite shutdown. Not a done deal but clearly preparations being made. Stay tuned.. <a href="https://t.co/4lj8NPn9s7">pic.twitter.com/4lj8NPn9s7</a>&mdash; Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1982827068837806544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 27, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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As we keep an eye on ETF updates, we also have Coinbase’s Q3 earnings on our radar. That’s set for Thursday, after the market closes. Executives have been transparent on past earnings webcasts about <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-eyes-everything-exchange-q2">the exchange’s priorities</a>.&nbsp;



JPMorgan analysts last week updated its Coinbase stock grade to “overweight.”



“We see Coinbase exploring a Base token, which we see accelerating the growth of development on the Base blockchain, but has the ancillary benefit of enabling Coinbase to equitize the success in what is the largest L2 on multiple metrics,” analysts wrote in an Oct. 24 note. “We also see Coinbase further exploring its USDC payouts.”&nbsp;&nbsp;



The bank’s COIN price target for December 2026 is $404 — a roughly 10% increase from where it was midday Monday ($366).&nbsp;



So a busy week appears certain. Time will tell how “big” it will be.



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Coinbase

Big crypto week ahead? What to watch for in the ‘Uptober’ homestretch

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">subscribe</a>.



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New US crypto ETF launches remain on pause given the ongoing government shutdown.&nbsp;



This just means there’s more time to make sense of what the upcoming product wave will look like — and how the world’s largest asset manager will (or won’t) participate.



Being on the Digital Asset Summit stage in London last week with BlackRock’s Matt Kunke and 21Shares’ Mandy Chiu gave me a unique chance to explore the different product development approaches of a TradFi incumbent and a crypto-centric firm.&nbsp;



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-3tIgDCqVUo?si=Mu_AAlLvsE4m1cNJ" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>







With the SEC offering <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-etf-swell">generic listing standards</a> around what crypto assets would be allowed in the ETP wrapper, Kunke noted: “There will probably be an asset manager that will launch everything that you can imagine that falls within this scope.”



It’ll be a “Cambrian explosion” of sorts, he added, alluding to the period of rapid animal diversification 540 million years ago (Google’s AI overview helped me with that). A provider of 50 or so ETPs in Europe already, 21Shares (set to be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/falconx-21shares">acquired by FalconX</a>) is among those that will indeed look to offer many similar access points for US investors. You’ll see the firm’s name peppered throughout this long proposals list shared by Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart in August (and there have been plenty more filings since):



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">NEW: Here is a list of all the filings and/or applications I&#39;m tracking for Crypto ETPs here in the US. There are 92 line items in this spreadsheet. You will almost certainly have to squint and zoom to see but best I can do on here <a href="https://t.co/lDhRGEQBoW">pic.twitter.com/lDhRGEQBoW</a>&mdash; James Seyffart (@JSeyff) <a href="https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1961171325374095552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 28, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Chiu said her team considers onchain data, tokenomics, risk and governance when choosing which crypto ETPs to file for. But there’s one thing above all.



“I would simplify it by saying there’s no difference between crypto vs. other asset classes,” she told me. “It’s about whether or not you have the investment case and are we ready to get behind it as an asset manager.”



But Kunke said BlackRock — which manages ~$13.5 trillion in assets — is not ready to commit to launching more spot crypto ETFs after its successful BTC and ETH product launches last year.&nbsp; “It’s a client demand question,” he said, noting that his meetings with pro investors suggest demand is “overwhelmingly skewed toward bitcoin.”



Passage of the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/genius-act-passes-house">GENIUS Act</a> and the narrative of ETH being “the institutional smart contract chain” has helped awareness of the second-largest crypto asset in recent months. But those asking about solana and XRP represent only “a very small fraction” of the investors/institutions BlackRock is speaking to, Kunke added.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“Given the relative size of [BTC and ETH] markets compared to some of the smaller ones, I think commercially we’re probably better off prioritizing and elevating those two main products from an education perspective and a marketing perspective,” the BlackRock exec said.



Chiu pointed out an interesting stat. AUM in US crypto ETFs is roughly 6% of the total crypto market cap. Meanwhile, assets in US equity ETFs are about 20% of the US equity market size. “I’m not saying we’ll reach 20% anytime soon,” she said. “But it’s definitely moving toward that direction and there’re still huge pockets of investors who haven’t gotten in yet.”



BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and ether ETF (ETHA) tout AUM totals of ~$90 billion and ~$16 billion, respectively. IBIT (with weekly flows shown below) is the fastest-growing ETF in history and recently <a href="https://etfdb.com/compare/market-cap/">cracked the top 20</a> in AUM.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="906" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-84.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-109370" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-84.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-84.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-84.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-84.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-84.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-84.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-84.png?w=461 461w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-84.png?w=387 387w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-84.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



So back to BlackRock’s decision to hold off on more crypto ETF filings, Kunke said: “I don’t think we’re at saturation. These are scarce assets with a lot of capital that still have barriers inhibiting that.”&nbsp;



The barriers are eroding though. An example, ironically, came the day of this panel discussion. On Oct. 15, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/morgan-stanley-drops-crypto-fund-restrictions-for-wealth-clients.html">Morgan Stanley started allowing</a> its advisers to pitch crypto funds to any client (previously they could only do that for those with aggressive risk tolerances and $1.5 million or more in assets).



BlackRock competitor Vanguard still <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tradfi-crypto-vanguard-stands-apart-bitcoin">doesn’t allow clients</a> to trade crypto ETFs on its platform. Kunke didn’t want to comment much on that, but did note Vanguard’s stance “wasn’t terribly surprising” given the index fund giant’s focus on stocks and bonds.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



When will more wirehouses follow Morgan Stanley in lifting other crypto investing restrictions?



“I would say months, not years,” Kunke said. “Conversations are accelerating.”&nbsp;



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bitcoin etf

BlackRock to keep focus on BTC, ETH ahead of crypto ETF ‘explosion’

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">subscribe</a>.



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Conferences like last week’s Digital Asset Summit remind us of the broader world that crypto is percolating. The attendance of some of the largest banks and asset managers (and what they’re working on) seems a solid indication of where we’re headed.



Citi was in the building, with research analyst Sophia Bantanidis giving the DAS crowd a talk on stablecoins. The financial giant’s base-case projection is for stablecoin issuance to reach $1.9 trillion by 2030. It labels growth in this segment as “blockchain’s ChatGPT moment for institutional adoption.”&nbsp;



My colleague Macauley Peterson wrote more about that <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/citi-posits-bank-tokens-may-be-more-popular-than-stablecoins">here</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



BNP Paribas <a href="https://group.bnpparibas/en/press-release/group-of-leading-international-banks-explores-issuance-of-a-1-1-reserve-backed-form-of-digital-money">revealed</a> on Oct. 10 that it’s looking into issuing “a 1:1 reserve-backed form of digital money that provides a stable payment asset available on public blockchains, focused on G7 currencies.” So a stablecoin. Citi is among the nine other banks BNP Paribas said it was exploring this with. Another is Goldman Sachs, which also sent an exec to DAS. Mathew McDermott, the firm’s head of digital assets, called tokenization the “topic du jour” — noting the use of distributed ledger technology for collateral mobility is one area of focus for Goldman.



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<iframe loading="lazy" title="Inside the Goldman Sachs Digital Asset Playbook | DAS London 2025 | Day 3 | Institutional" src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/1127584430?h=dbb0d5820f&amp;dnt=1&amp;app_id=122963" width="1024" height="576" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin"></iframe>
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It was the same day McDermott took the stage that US Bank <a href="https://ir.usbank.com/news-events/news/news-details/2025/U-S--Bank-establishes-new-Digital-Assets-and-Money-Movement-organization/default.aspx">launched</a> a division focused on stablecoin issuance, crypto custody, asset tokenization and digital money movement.



Back to Citi: Chris Cox, the firm&#8217;s investor services head, confirmed the company is considering a Citi stablecoin.



“At the same time, we are focused on the ongoing adoption of our tokenized deposit capabilities…that are already addressing friction in payments,” he told me. The firm recently shared plans to integrate its blockchain-based Citi Token Services platform with its 24/7 USD clearing solution. That would allow multi-bank cross-border instant payments for institutional clients in the UK and US.



So while the bank has been exploring blockchain tech for many years, Cox explained, it continues to develop real-time quick and constant services using other means. The convergence of growing institutional interest in the crypto asset class (from asset managers, banks, asset owners, etc.) and regulatory clarity are important for Citi and its clients, he added.



Citi is also plotting crypto custody — a service Cox <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/13/citi-aims-to-launch-crypto-custody-in-2026-exploring-stablecoin.html">confirmed</a> to me is slated to launch in 2026. The bank expects to initially support “the leading crypto assets” for institutional clients only.



“We are now simply extending our existing real-time and instant capabilities to be able to support digital assets, including crypto,” he said. “Ultimately, our vision is to provide a multi-asset and multi-network digital custody capability that is seamlessly connected to our existing custody proposition.”



And I know <a href="https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/p/cambrian-explosion">I wrote about BlackRock</a> on Friday, but that centered around ETFs. I wanted to mention the world’s largest asset manager <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blackrock-fink-bitcoin-dollar">tripling</a> (quadrupling?) down on its tokenization conviction, as vocalized on its Oct. 14 earnings call.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Bridging the gap between TradFi and crypto via tokenization is “one of the most exciting areas of growth in financial markets,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said. Digital wallets, after all, hold roughly $4.5 trillion in crypto tokens, stablecoins and tokenized assets, he noted.



“We envision a future where investors never need to leave a digital wallet to allocate efficiently across crypto, stablecoin and exposures to long-term stocks and bonds,” Fink explained.



While BlackRock CFO Martin Small added that the company would keep pursuing partnerships to make this vision a reality, Fink added it’s “spending a great deal of time on trying to develop our own technology related to this.”



Many agree making the adoption process incredibly easy will be crucial. (Remember these sentiments from last week?):



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://t.co/YYXSSSerVp">https://t.co/YYXSSSerVp</a> <a href="https://t.co/iRwhTTrMuw">pic.twitter.com/iRwhTTrMuw</a>&mdash; Santiago R Santos (@santiagoroel) <a href="https://twitter.com/santiagoroel/status/1978221018540863545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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We’re in a constant “stay tuned” sort of scenario. It’s no longer a question of whether another goliath firm will enter crypto or lean more into the space — but just a matter of which one and when. Breaking news teams beware.



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BlackRock

Behemoth buy-in: Citi, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs lay out crypto visions

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Stablecoins and tokenization (shocker!) remained a big theme at DAS London’s Day 2. Upon the umpteenth mention of these segments, Inversion founder Santiago Roel Santos got real with the industry members watching. But first, Algorand Foundation CEO Staci Warden kicked off the main stage festivities by calling tokenization crypto’s killer app. This clip comes from later in the chat:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Enjoyed this conversation to kick off Day 2. &quot;With tokens, everything can become money, and it can be yield-bearing money. Why do we have $20 billion a year in collateral in the financial system tied up earning absolutely nothing?&quot; <a href="https://t.co/U3bqLsy9p4">https://t.co/U3bqLsy9p4</a>&mdash; Ben Strack 🟪 (@strack_ben) <a href="https://twitter.com/strack_ben/status/1978022303595118905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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The market value of stablecoins — tokenization’s “top of the funnel” — has grown to nearly $300 billion. There’s about $33 billion worth of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) — i.e. private credit, money market funds, equities, etc. — <a href="http://rwa.xyz">RWA.xyz</a> data shows.



Even many crypto skeptics understand the benefits of blockchain technology. Index fund giant Vanguard, which doesn’t allow bitcoin ETFs to trade on its platform, was <a href="https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/who-we-are/pressroom/Press-Release-Vanguard-Advances-Blockchain-Technology-Pilot-061120.html">testing the tech</a> five-plus years ago in an effort to streamline asset-backed securities markets.&nbsp;&nbsp;



So tokenization’s growth potential is by no means a new conversation. You know that as a Forward Guidance reader.&nbsp;



That might explain what Santos said during an afternoon chat I was moderating: “I’m tired of sitting behind a screen or coming to these panels and pontificating about this [gosh darn!] technology. It’s good, we use it, but someone has to deploy it at scale.”



We shouldn’t need another decade before mass adoption takes hold, Santos argued. He told me there’s a three-to-five year “execution window” before tokenization becomes “table stakes” — and no excuse if the industry can’t make it happen.&nbsp;



“The tech is ready, the regulation is there and so let’s accelerate that, let’s actually muscle our way to go-to-market and development,” Santos said.&nbsp;



He didn’t stop there, and I think his words kind of sum up where the industry is heading.&nbsp;



The goal, Santos explained, is making crypto a relatable piece of tech for people who may not even understand it. In other words, the infrastructure should be invisible to them — and yet they’ll feel the impact. All’s to say: The industry should focus less on the “casino” side of crypto and instead fully seek to deliver real value to end users.&nbsp;



“Building distribution is very hard; convincing people to set up a wallet is hard,” the Inversion founder went on. “I think now we’ve got to invert the playbook. Let’s acquire real business and let’s just kind of Trojan horse our way into mainstream adoption.”



That’s what you might call real talk.



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DAS Day 2: Tokenization’s ‘Trojan horse’ moment

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This version of DAS London felt extra timely as stablecoins proliferate, tokenization developments multiply, DATs keep buying their desired tokens and more US crypto ETFs wait in the wings.&nbsp;



Not to mention the latest crypto turbulence, which spurred a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-liquidations-drive-historic-market-turbulence">historic level of liquidations</a> Friday — making this gathering feel even more fitting, in a way.&nbsp;



Christopher Holmes, a member of the House of Lords, alluded to that “crash” Monday morning, asking the crowd: “How’s everybody’s blood pressure?”



Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan was later asked how much Friday’s activity damaged this crypto cycle. He was resolute in his answer: “Not at all.”



His firm’s main customers are professional investors — family offices, financial advisers and institutions — that he says are driving this cycle by growing their crypto allocations from, let’s say, 0% to 3%. That’s mostly into bitcoin, which remains up ~23% year to date and roughly 6x what it was just three years ago.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1440" height="874" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-39.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108967" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-39.png?w=1440 1440w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-39.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-39.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-39.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-39.png?w=423 423w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-39.png?w=430 430w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-39.png?w=361 361w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-39.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1440px) 100vw, 1440px" /></figure>



“The people driving the market can’t pronounce solana,” Hougan added.



Stablecoins — with a market value just shy of $300 billion — were another big talking point.&nbsp;



Inversion founder Santiago Roel Santos, for example, criticized exchanges <a href="https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/1963375254526709879">upping their max leverage</a> offerings to traders. He warned that the industry best not rely too much on centralized exchanges to acquire users.&nbsp;



“[With] stablecoins in their own right, as a tokenization product, we don’t need to innovate more than that for this industry to be 10x larger and transform businesses,” Santos argued.



Apeiron Investment Group founder Christian Angermayer also addressed stablecoins:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">&quot;I think the US [will] go as far in the next three years to try to convince numerous of these countries to just completely abolish their currency and completely dollarize&quot; <a href="https://t.co/iTdV0eTEVh">pic.twitter.com/iTdV0eTEVh</a>&mdash; Digital Asset Summit 2025 (@blockworksDAS) <a href="https://twitter.com/blockworksDAS/status/1977697640759325143?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 13, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Panelists touched on regulation too.&nbsp;



UK Parliament member Nigel Farage, who seeks to become Britain’s next prime minister, said the vast majority of his colleagues can’t <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/nigel-farage-deregulation-bitcoin">hold a crypto convo</a>.&nbsp;



&#8220;You might as well be speaking Swahili to them,” he told Blockworks co-founder Michael Ippolito.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">If <a href="https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Nigel_Farage</a> wins the general election, &quot;we will bring crypto in from the cold&quot; <a href="https://t.co/udoA6grCf1">pic.twitter.com/udoA6grCf1</a>&mdash; Digital Asset Summit 2025 (@blockworksDAS) <a href="https://twitter.com/blockworksDAS/status/1977700466487124347?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 13, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Speaking of regulation, Jito Labs chief legal officer Rebecca Rettig said on the DAS stage she doesn’t expect US market structure legislation to pass this year. She’s eyeing 2026.



“The best thing would be if we stop having regulatory panels two to three years from now, because the lawyers can just be back-office people like we’re supposed to be,” she said to laughter.&nbsp;



Rettig added: “The biggest question is, and will remain to be, what do we do about DeFi?” Regulators want to, after all, hold people/front-ends accountable in that realm; that could slow down market structure clarity.&nbsp;



“It is almost like you’re explaining robots to people or what the future looks like,” she noted. “It’s very hard for financial regulators to believe that things that look so similar to what they know from centralized legislation can actually happen without any human intervention.”



It was DeFi platforms like Aave that operated <a href="https://x.com/heyibinance/status/1976976922283221445">smoother than various centralized players</a> during what many called the latest “stress test,” Rettig said.



Let’s wrap up this Day 1 recap with a bigger-picture quote from DeFi Development Corp. CEO Joseph Onorati. It’s a theme that seems to sum up most DAS events.&nbsp;



He said he didn’t view his move to running a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/equity-fueled-firms-volatility-sol">Nasdaq-listed</a> Solana treasury company as a transition from DeFi to TradFi. Rather, it was just “a natural progression” given regulatory changes, which he said will allow these two systems to keep merging.



“In 20 years…hopefully [finance is] more decentralized than centralized,” Onorati noted. “But there’s just going to be one system in the long run.”



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Soundbites and sentiment from DAS London Day 1

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Firms continue responding to investor calls for diversified exposure to a crypto space becoming more entwined with the traditional financial system.&nbsp;



S&amp;P Global is a few weeks from offering a Digital Markets 50 Index that would blend 15 tokens with 35 crypto-linked equities involved in digital asset operations, infrastructure, financial services, blockchain applications, etc. This mix of crypto stocks and tokens is a first for the index giant.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The company did not reveal the index’s specific holdings, but noted tokens would be selected from the S&amp;P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Market Index (a benchmark with BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL as its top five holdings). Here’s that index’s track record:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="690" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-24.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108756" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-24.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-24.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-24.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-24.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-24.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-24.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-24.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-24.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-24.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



This comes as the crypto segment has moved “from the margins into a more established role in global markets,” S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices chief product/ops officer Cameron Drinkwater said. Market participants are gravitating to crypto for diversification, growth or innovation strategies, he added.&nbsp;



This isn’t some crypto-focused firm building an index like this. It’s the financial goliath who brought you the S&amp;P 500. Ever heard of it?&nbsp;



Dinari helped design the index and plans to create a token that tracks the benchmark by the end of 2025. The company offers what it calls dShares — 150 or so tokenized stocks and ETFs that are backed 1:1 by off-chain assets.



“It was clear to us that there’s a need for the ‘S&amp;P 500’ of the space,” Dinari chief business officer Anna Wroblewska told me. “Who better to build it with than the incredible S&amp;P team.”



Wroblewska told me in May that the company was focused on bringing the entire stock market onchain. Its subsidiary, Dinari Securities, received a broker-dealer registration with the SEC and FINRA the following month.



“In the longer term, Dinari’s mission is to help facilitate a global, pooled on-chain secondary market for tokenized stocks and other RWAs,” Wroblewska noted at the time. “Imagine, for example, the cross-asset opportunities if NYSE and the CBOE and the CME were all unified in one place that all market participants could access.”



Today, the Dinari executive added that her firm is focused on scaling tokenized equities while “preserving the ownership rights and control that make US capital markets function so well.” I’m also told to keep an eye out for Dinari’s US launch and regulated 24/7 trading.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Let’s go back to indexes for a moment, as CoinShares is set to introduce an ETF that tracks the CoinShares-Compass Altcoins Index.



That benchmark allocates to emerging layer-1 alternatives across three themes: high-speed blockchains, interoperability protocols and growing platforms. The ETF will offer this exposure by investing in ETPs listed in the US, Canada, the UK and EU.



Its ticker will be DIME — clever, given its plan to allocate to 10 tokens:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="828" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-25.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108767" style="width:681px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-25.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-25.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-25.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-25.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-25.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-25.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-25.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-25.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-25.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



These upcoming launches focused on diversification come after the Grayscale CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF — holding BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA — hit the NYSE Arca last month. Hashdex recently <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/etfs-indexes-crypto-investing">added several assets to its crypto index ETF</a> — tracking a benchmark CIO Samir Kerbage said could one day hold 200 assets.



We’re also waiting for more single-asset crypto ETF approvals in the US. Given recent <a href="https://x.com/JSeyff/status/1971689757525868812?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1971689757525868812%7Ctwgr%5E9d9e027903749467ca991298513623da00e4111c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fblockworks.co%2Fnews%2Fetfs-indexes-crypto-investing">S-1 amendments</a>, the SEC seems focused on greenlighting solana products first.&nbsp;



A person close to those filings told me there’s no clear approval timeline at the moment given the government shutdown has paused SEC reviews. “We expect the process to move quickly once the government reopens,” they added.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



After two funding proposals failed in the Senate last night, it’s hard to know when that will happen.



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Index giant, crypto ETP issuer push diversification in latest product plans

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The SEC’s mid-2024 approval of spot ether ETFs was a milestone, for sure. But the agency not allowing those products to stake their holdings left something to be desired.&nbsp;



Grayscale today became the first issuer to unlock staking in US ETFs — for its Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) ETFs. This feature is available for its over-the-counter solana product, too (a trust <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/etfs-indexes-crypto-investing">waiting for the greenlight</a> to convert to an ETF).&nbsp;&nbsp;



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-etf-swell">The SEC’s new generic listing standards</a> enable ETP issuers to stake assets within their proof-of-stake based products, a Grayscale spokesperson told me. The firm’s staking policy adheres to this piece of the regulator’s September <a href="https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/nasdaq/2025/34-103995.pdf">order</a>:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="605" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-14.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108711" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-14.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-14.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-14.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-14.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-14.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-14.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-14.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-14.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-14.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



This footnote clarifies what the SEC means by disclosures related to assets that are “segregated, pledged, hypothecated, encumbered, or otherwise restricted or prevented from being liquidated, sold, transferred or assigned.” 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="233" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-16.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108714" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-16.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-16.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-16.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-16.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-16.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-16.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-16.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-16.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-16.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The level of staking in each fund will vary with market conditions — i.e. protocol unstaking queue times and anticipated redemption activity —&nbsp;and be shared on the fund webpages daily, Grayscale notes. The firm warns there’s no guarantee the ETFs’ liquidity sleeves will be sufficient to satisfy all outstanding redemption requests.



It wasn’t clear which fund issuer could be next to add staking. A couple Grayscale competitors didn’t immediately share details with me.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Disclosures aside, why does this matter? It’s yet another unlock set to attract more investors to the crypto space. Grayscale notes that its staking via institutional custodians and validator providers also helps secure underlying protocols and supports long-term network resilience.



“By [adding staking], you then convert it from a passive exposure vehicle to an income-generating, yield-bearing product,” Twinstake CEO Andrew Gibb said last month during a Blockworks <a href="https://blockworks.co/roundtable/designing-etfs-for-a-staking-economy">Roundtable</a>. “I think that equates it more closely to a comparable traditional product — like a bond ETF or a dividend-paying equity.”



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1472" height="1138" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-17.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108713" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-17.png?w=1472 1472w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-17.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-17.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-17.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-17.png?w=332 332w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-17.png?w=338 338w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-17.png?w=283 283w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-17.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1472px) 100vw, 1472px" /></figure>



I remember chatting with CoinFund President Christopher Perkins in the lead-up to last year’s ETH ETF launches. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sizing-up-demand-for-us-eth-etfs">He called them “sub-standard” products</a> because investors would miss out on the additional yield. Others shared similar feelings.



While there was indeed lukewarm demand for these funds during their first few months on the market (particularly compared to BTC), the category collectively started to attract meaningful net inflows late last year. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/record-crypto-product-inflows-july-eth">Inflows spiked more recently in July</a> and August, Blockworks Research data shows — reflecting a big ETH price rally. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-etf-momentum-collapses">September not so much</a>.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="926" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-18.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108715" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-18.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-18.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-18.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-18.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-18.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-18.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-18.png?w=451 451w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-18.png?w=378 378w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-18.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Though a positive development for those seeking ETH exposure in a traditional vehicle, the staking unlock won’t necessarily result in a significant uptick in inflows, said NovaDius Wealth Management president Nate Geraci.&nbsp;



“In my view, the lack of a 2-3% yield hasn’t been a major deterrent for investors allocating to the category,” he told me. “That said, this is still a meaningful milestone — one that makes spot ether ETFs even more competitive with direct ether exposure.”



And while we’re talking about milestones, crypto investment products globally tallied a record weekly inflow total of $5.95 billion last week.&nbsp;



“We believe this was due to a delayed response to the FOMC interest rate cut, compounded by very weak employment data, as indicated by Wednesday’s ADP payroll release, and concerns over US government stability following the shutdown,” CoinShares research head James Butterfill wrote in a <a href="https://researchblog.coinshares.com/volume-254-digital-asset-fund-flows-weekly-report-126665afebbb">report</a>.&nbsp;



Solana and XRP products joined the party last week with $707 million and $219 million of inflows, respectively.&nbsp;



Here’s a snapshot of just the US crypto ETFs, which cracked the $4.5 billion combined weekly inflow mark for just the second time:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="921" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-15.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108712" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-15.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-15.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-15.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-15.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-15.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-15.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-15.png?w=453 453w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-15.png?w=380 380w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-15.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The US bitcoin ETFs officially hit $60 billion of net inflows since their January 2024 debuts.



Bitcoin’s price was ~125,400 at 2 p.m. ET Monday — just below the all-time high it set just hours prior. Ether was at $4,700 — 5% off the record price it set in August. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/etf-inflows-bitcoin-above-123k">Last week’s positive price action</a> pushed total crypto product AUM to a new high of $254 billion.&nbsp; <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-uptober-factors">“Uptober” is in full swing</a>, I guess. We’re only six days in, though — and nothing goes up and to the right forever.



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Grayscale’s milestone ETF staking unlock comes as product flows surge

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The weekend is just about here, and bitcoin is flirting with its all-time high.



With the government shutdown delaying new potential crypto ETF launches, we can focus today on the US bitcoin funds that have seen ~$2.2 billion of inflows over the last four trading days.



(This is part of a broader “debasement trade” that analysts at a TradFi giant are only now starting to talk about. You’ll have to forgive them for not hearing about this when you did.)



When I wrote about the crypto market outlook for October, bitcoin was in the $117,500 range. It has since surged above $123,000 — sitting 1% off its all-time high at midday.



As many have turned attention to the expected launches of crypto ETFs holding SOL, LTC, XRP, etc., the <a href="http://google.com/search?q=blockworks+shutdown&amp;sca_esv=7c4197be7832523f&amp;rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS1069US1072&amp;ei=kPPfaPacC5Ki0PEP-PrzqAI&amp;ved=0ahUKEwj2pOvRs4iQAxUSETQIHXj9HCUQ4dUDCBA&amp;uact=5&amp;oq=blockworks+shutdown&amp;gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiE2Jsb2Nrd29ya3Mgc2h1dGRvd24yBRAhGKABMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABSLEEUGBY0QNwAHgCkAEAmAGSAqABjQWqAQUwLjEuMrgBA8gBAPgBAZgCA6ACjwPCAgQQABhHmAMA4gMFEgExIECIBgGQBgiSBwUxLjEuMaAH-wyyBwUwLjEuMbgHhQPCBwUwLjIuMcgHDA&amp;sclient=gws-wiz-serp">government shutdown</a> (and therefore SEC pause) gives us a chance to check back on the classics.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Spot bitcoin ETF inflows rebounded in September after the products bled $750 million in August. Though ether ETFs had stolen the show in August, capital flowing to those funds <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-etf-momentum-collapses">slowed mightily</a> last month.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="909" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-12.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108670" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-12.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-12.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-12.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-12.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-12.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-12.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-12.png?w=459 459w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-12.png?w=385 385w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-12.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The above chart doesn’t include Wednesday and Thursday, during which bitcoin ETFs reeled in another $676 million and $627 million, respectively — their highest inflow levels in three weeks.&nbsp;



On the odds of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-uptober-factors">another “Uptober”</a> playing out for BTC, 21Shares’ Matt Mena had noted the expected Fed rate cut later this month as a major tailwind. Bitcoin can benefit as both a “digital gold” hedge in times of fiscal uncertainty and as a high-beta risk asset when liquidity returns, he explained.&nbsp;



Felix mentioned in <a href="https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/p/shut-er-down">yesterday’s newsletter</a> how the ongoing government shutdown (and the delay of jobs data, for example) forces market watchers to lean on recent private payrolls data that showed labor market weakness. Essentially that means “the continuation of the rate-cutting cycle is a lock,” he explained.&nbsp;



Beyond the expected cut, Mena mentioned ETF flows as another reason bitcoin looks well-positioned to retest $124,000 and potentially reach between $140,000 and $150,000 before 2025 is through. The broader market could follow suit, he added.&nbsp;



“Total crypto market cap is poised to challenge the $5 trillion threshold — less than 25% above current levels,” Mena told me earlier this week. “That’s an achievable move considering Q4 2024 saw a 63% surge, with market cap climbing from $2.2 trillion in October to $3.6 trillion by year-end.”



JPMorgan analysts recently went on record saying bitcoin could reach $165,000 by the end of 2025 — noting the asset is undervalued relative to volatility-adjusted gold levels.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Per this CNBC reporting, the strategy favoring gold and Bitcoin now has a name: JP Morgan analysts are calling it &quot;the debasement trade.&quot;<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/economy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#economy</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/gold?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#gold</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#bitcoin</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/jpmorgan?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jpmorgan</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/CNBC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CNBC</a> <a href="https://t.co/tl1BOMCgz8">pic.twitter.com/tl1BOMCgz8</a>&mdash; Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) <a href="https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1973755997173989595?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 2, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



As we get set to see a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/etfs-indexes-crypto-investing">widely expanding array</a> of crypto ETFs, it’s important to remember the role bitcoin plays in a portfolio is different from that of other crypto assets. I’m not telling bitcoin maxis anything they don’t already believe.&nbsp;



Remember what ETF.com analyst Sumit Roy told me about potential demand for the upcoming spot crypto ETFs? They won’t necessarily see flows from the investors who put a fraction of their wealth (2%, let’s say) in BTC as a diversifier and/or hedge.



This ETF-focused Oct. 15 panel at <a href="https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london/home">DAS London</a> with execs from BlackRock and 21Shares is an extra timely one.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1000" height="628" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-11.png" alt="" class="wp-image-108669" style="width:572px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-11.png?w=1000 1000w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-11.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-11.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-11.png?w=409 409w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-11.png?w=416 416w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-11.png?w=349 349w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-11.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" /></figure>



Another possible tailwind for bitcoin ETFs would be a brokerage firm like Vanguard allowing clients to trade them. This has come up again after a recent <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-29/vanguard-weighs-allowing-trading-of-crypto-etfs-a-big-reversal">report</a> that the index fund giant was weighing that possibility. While Vanguard hasn’t responded to me about this report, it’s historically made its crypto stance (or should I say <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tradfi-crypto-vanguard-stands-apart-bitcoin">anti-crypto stance</a>) very clear. A Vanguard spokesperson has previously told me the firm “continuously evaluates” its brokerage offerings, so this report doesn’t seem too different from that language. Many believe, of course, Vanguard will ultimately cave.&nbsp;



I’ve rambled enough for a Friday. If you’re in a place with seasons, go enjoy this autumn weather.&nbsp;&nbsp;



— Ben Strack



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ETF inflows, ‘debasement trade’ fuel bitcoin’s climb above $123K

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After bitcoin just logged its third straight September in the green, we’ll see if the asset can pull off positive returns for a seventh consecutive October.



While bitcoin’s month-over-month October strength is usually supported by September weakness, BTC’s <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/today">5% rise</a> last month changes the set-up a bit.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="966" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108584" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png?w=426 426w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png?w=432 432w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png?w=363 363w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Still, the chance of the “Uptober” narrative playing out again appears solid for several reasons, according to 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena.



A Wednesday report by ADP showed that private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September — “a downside surprise” that boosts expectations for another Fed rate cut, Mena said. The probability of a 25bps cut on Oct. 29 stands at 99%, according to the CME FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>.&nbsp;



“As liquidity expectations rise, BTC tends to outperform — benefiting both as a digital gold hedge in times of fiscal uncertainty and as a high-beta risk asset when liquidity returns,” Mena told me.



Recent market action underscores this resilience, with bitcoin rising from $108,000 to ~$118,000 by mid-day Wednesday — even after $2 billion in leveraged long liquidations last week. The asset is up 26% year to date.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1422" height="866" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108583" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png?w=1422 1422w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png?w=422 422w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png?w=429 429w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png?w=360 360w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1422px) 100vw, 1422px" /></figure>



As for other economic data, the latest government shutdown means the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not be able to deliver the jobs report it was set to publish Friday.&nbsp; “[Expect] near-term choppiness from a data blackout and policy uncertainty, but if the Fed stays on track for an October cut and the dollar softens, the backdrop tilts risk-on — historically supportive for bitcoin,” Mena added.



Beyond just October, the fourth quarter is bitcoin’s strongest. This trend was helped by the lead-up to bitcoin ETF approval in 2023 and Trump’s election victory last November.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said he expects BTC, ETH and SOL to make new highs in Q4 so long as the Senate makes progress on market structure legislation and macro conditions hold up.&nbsp;



Ether, which dipped to ~$3,800 last week, climbed above $4,300 today (12% off its all-time high). Though the asset has grown 30% so far in 2025, ETH has not, on average, seen the gains BTC has in October (+4.7% vs. BTC’s +20.4%).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1114" height="678" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-16.32.36.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108604" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-16.32.36.png?w=1114 1114w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-16.32.36.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-16.32.36.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-16.32.36.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-16.32.36.png?w=422 422w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-16.32.36.png?w=429 429w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-16.32.36.png?w=360 360w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-01-at-16.32.36.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1114px) 100vw, 1114px" /></figure>



“The biggest risk to both crypto and traditional markets is a hawkish pivot from the Fed,” Pandl told me. “As long as rates are heading lower and the economy holds up reasonably well, asset valuations should remain supported.”



As for where bitcoin lands at the end of 2025, Ledn CIO John Glover last week noted the difference in opinion among technical analysts. While he believes BTC could go up to $145,000 by year-end, another camp thinks the bull market ended when bitcoin nearly reached their $125,000 target.



“I remain steadfast in my view that there are higher prices yet to come, and that any dip down to $100,000 or slightly below is a buying opportunity,” Glover added at the time. “However, one view that we all share is that once this bull cycle is complete…the bear market will begin very soon.&#8221;



As conditions fluctuate, investors will soon have more tools to navigate this asset class.



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The factors set to spur another ‘Uptober’ for BTC

Now’s as good a time as any to talk crypto ETFs as more US launches are imminent (even with the latest <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/etf-sec-govt-shutdown">government shutdown</a>).&nbsp;



The anticipated boom of both single-asset and index offerings is set to expand the investor base entering the crypto asset class, industry watchers say.&nbsp;



How do we know we’re set to see more crypto ETFs flood the US market? For one, the SEC finalized its generic listing standards. Those, as you might recall, are set to streamline approvals as long as an ETF proposal meets various <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-etf-swell">spelled-out requirements</a>.&nbsp;



There are roughly a dozen crypto assets the agency appears ready to allow in the ETF wrapper, per the guidelines — litecoin and solana among them.&nbsp;



A person familiar with the filings told me earlier this month that solana ETF amendments were due Sept. 26. They weren’t kidding.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">NEW: Bunch of updated filings for the Solana ETF prospectuses. Signs of movement from issuers and the SEC. <a href="https://t.co/2XXaXct6w7">pic.twitter.com/2XXaXct6w7</a>&mdash; James Seyffart (@JSeyff) <a href="https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1971689757525868812?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 26, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



It’d be fair to say the SEC is most focused on the solana ETF proposals right now, another person close to the filings told me Tuesday.



Perhaps we’ll see some more amendments, though the S-1s look pretty close to ready. And <a href="https://x.com/EleanorTerrett/status/1972666249315303665">reports</a> of various 19b-4s soon being withdrawn make sense given exchanges wouldn’t need a rule change to list ETFs holding assets fitting the new standards.&nbsp;



It’s worth noting that 19b-4s could still be filed for proposed ETPs holding assets that fall outside the generic listing standards.&nbsp;



And it’s possible too for the standards to evolve over time. Perhaps, some believe, to not necessarily require an asset to have a regulated futures market — and/or to include prerequisites based on token-specific data.



Whether we are weeks away (or mere days) from the solana ETFs launching remains to be seen. Several issuers are essentially ready to launch, but hesitant to speculate on exactly when the SEC will sign off. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told Blockworks’ own Katherine Ross we could see <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-etf-market-outlook">multiple new crypto ETFs by Halloween</a>.



But beyond timing, what should we expect from investor demand?&nbsp;&nbsp;



Well, US bitcoin ETF inflows stand at $57.3 billion. Ether ETFs have so far attracted $13.7 billion. That inflow difference more or less corresponds to the market caps for BTC (~$2.2 trillion) and ETH (~$500 billion).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="1000" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108560" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image.png?w=411 411w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image.png?w=418 418w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image.png?w=350 350w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



As far as the demand for any new US crypto ETFs that launch, ETF.com analyst Sumit Roy said assuming the flows will be proportional to market cap is a good starting point.



“But the new coins may actually underperform compared to that,” he added. “That&#8217;s because BTC, and to a lesser extent, ETH, are benefiting from asset allocation flows from certain investors [who say], ‘I&#8217;ll put 2% of my portfolio in bitcoin as a diversifier/hedge.’”



While coins (excluding ETH) won&#8217;t see those flows initially, Roy argued, they may eventually benefit if crypto index funds take off in a bigger way. “Right now, index funds are small relative to funds that hold single assets like BTC,” he said. “If that ever changes, then the flows could be more widely distributed.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A new phase of crypto investing</h2>



Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage indeed expects that to change. His firm recently got the regulatory go-ahead to add assets to its Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF (NCIQ). Holding only BTC and ETH when it launched in February, NCIQ now also holds XRP, solana, stellar and cardano.&nbsp;



The index NCIQ tracks is designed to evolve in order to best represent the broad crypto market.&nbsp;



“There’s a chance that in five to 10 years from now, this index could have 20, 50, 100 or 200 assets,” Kerbage told me.



Hashdex’s broader goal is helping financial advisers make sense of the crypto ecosystem (beyond just BTC and ETH) by addressing historical pain points related to allocating to the space.



“There are going to be multiple single-asset ETPs, but most importantly, we’re going to start to see passive, index, benchmark and active strategies,” Kerbage explained. “So a lot of variations on top of this asset class, and this is how an asset class evolves.”



Hashdex’s thinking goes that advisers and pension funds don’t want to try to pick individual winners.&nbsp;



“They don’t do this for equities and they’re not going to do this for crypto,” Kerbage said. “They’re going to pick a benchmark.”&nbsp;



All’s to say, we’re about to enter an entirely new phase of crypto exposure optionality. Investors hungry for them will just have to wait a teensy bit longer.



A modified version of this article appeared in yesterday&#8217;s edition of the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance newsletter</a>. 



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ETFs

Upcoming ETFs, evolving indexes to mark new chapter for crypto investing  

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The stablecoin market is approaching the $300 billion mark as we’re seeing more signs of TradFi’s broader shift to blockchain rails.&nbsp;&nbsp;



For those keeping track at home, the roughly $290 billion stablecoin market cap is up 18% from 90 days ago and has more than doubled since the start of 2024.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1330" height="586" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-181.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108437" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-181.png?w=1330 1330w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-181.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-181.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-181.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-181.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-181.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-181.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-181.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1330px) 100vw, 1330px" /></figure>



We’ve seen <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/visa-bridge-card-stablecoin-adoption-latin-america">traditional payment giants </a>integrating stablecoins into the financial mainstream of late. Mastercard — recognizing stablecoins’ ability to bring faster, lower-cost cross-border B2B payments and simplify peer-to-peer remittances — enabled access to USDG, USDC, PYUSD and FIUSD in June. It then expanded its partnership with Circle last month.



During a Korea Blockchain Week panel last week, Mastercard’s Ashok Venkateswaran told me the stablecoin adoption snowball effect will come as institutions, banks and regulators start to act in unison.&nbsp;



The number of players looking more deeply at stablecoins has ramped up even in just the last six months, Venkateswaran noted. Seeing the value-add in action will be key. “Some of these institutions have legacy systems from 100 years ago, so change is not easy,” he explained. “They want to look at it and say, ‘Well what’s the potential revenue that’s going to come out of it so that we can actually invest in the change.’”



This shift, though, is already underway.&nbsp;



You probably saw that the CFTC last week launched its initiative to use tokenized collateral in derivatives markets. Acting Chair Caroline Pham reiterated her belief that “collateral management is the killer app for stablecoins in markets.”



Two days later, we saw nine European banks share a plan to launch a euro-denominated stablecoin in 2026. It’s for the reasons you’ve heard before — 24/7 access to near-instant, low-cost payments and settlements. We’d expect to see these banks add services on top, such as stablecoin wallets and/or custody.&nbsp;&nbsp;



ING digital assets lead Floris Lugt said it’s “imperative” for other banks to adopt “the same standards” — aka leveraging the benefits of blockchain tech. Adapt or die, as the saying goes.



“Many banks now recognize that clinging to legacy practices could leave them vulnerable to disruption, especially as stablecoins gain relevance and the yield differential between stablecoins and near-zero interest rates on checking accounts continues to widen,” Mega Matrix markets head Colin Butler told me.&nbsp;



This stablecoin issuance phase follows the initial stages of institutional involvement at the custody/settlement level (i.e. BNY Mellon being a <a href="https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-selects-bny-mellon-to-custody-usdc-reserves">custodian</a> for USDC reserves) and the yield/asset management level (BlackRock’s management of USDC’s short-term Treasury reserves), Butler explained.



Related, Swift said this morning that it would work with Consensys and 30 or so financial institutions to develop a shared digital ledger. It will leverage what Swift called its “unmatched resiliency, security and scalability to facilitate transactions using any form of regulated tokenized value.”



But back to the European banks for a second: That stablecoin initiative is meant to offer an alternative to the US-dominated stablecoin market, “contributing to Europe&#8217;s strategic autonomy in payments,” an ING press release noted.&nbsp;



Korean politician Byoungdug Min said at last week’s Origin Summit in Seoul that the country would not be buried under “the tsunami of dollar stablecoins.” Rather, there’d be work to create Korean won-backed digital money.&nbsp;



Maelstrom CIO <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLcafgSuXew">Arthur Hayes told</a> Forward Guidance’s own Felix Jauvin that he doesn’t see much of a need for certain local currency stablecoins in areas with generally good banking systems (like Asia). Demand comes instead from the underbanked who are essentially seeking a USD bank account.&nbsp;



Most new stablecoin projects are &#8220;zeros,&#8221; Hayes added. Here’s why he thinks so:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Stablecoins will greatly benefit the DeFi ecosystem as they help onboard millions of people, Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes told <a href="https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ForwardGuidance</a>&#39;s Felix Jauvin. But most new stablecoin projects are &quot;zeros&quot; without a distribution moat. &quot;If you don’t have a distribution arm, you… <a href="https://t.co/2NzqlPl4x6">pic.twitter.com/2NzqlPl4x6</a>&mdash; Ben Strack 🟪 (@strack_ben) <a href="https://twitter.com/strack_ben/status/1970396063921250481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 23, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Where would Hayes invest in the stablecoin space? Infrastructure that allows small businesses to accept stablecoin payments and allow easy conversion to fiat, etc.&nbsp;



The rate at which stablecoin adoption accelerates from here will depend not only on a growing understanding of the real-world benefits, Butler said — but on overall confidence. Even with the GENIUS Act <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-signs-genius-law">becoming law</a>, he noted the yet-to-pass <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-crypto-market-structure-bill">CLARITY Act</a> would offer greater assurances for investors.



The tl;dr, as Butler puts it: “The boundary between traditional and blockchain finance is fading, and a new hybrid financial ecosystem is emerging.”



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DeFi

Stablecoin market cap nears $300B as line between TradFi and DeFi is ‘fading’  

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Not all digital asset treasury companies (aka DATs) will last forever. Some just won’t be able to hack it. Others will, as we saw this week, get gobbled up by a competitor.&nbsp;



But there’s a bigger picture for this segment that we should be mindful of.&nbsp;



Just before I was set to take the Korea Blockchain Week stage with executives from ReserveOne, Awaken Finance and TON Strategy, the moderator for the panel before us noted the fast-growing DAT landscape.



He went on to say that all these companies accumulating large amounts of various crypto assets probably isn’t going to end well.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Minutes later, I posed that skepticism to my panelists — two of whom are running DATs. ReserveOne CEO Jaime Leverton’s response: There’s certainly an opportunity for consolidation. “I don’t love to shop, but I do love shopping for companies,” she quipped.



Speaking of consolidation, Strive said Monday it had agreed to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/strive-acquires-semler">acquire Semler Scientific</a> in an all-stock deal. SMLR was among the first companies to follow MicroStrategy’s lead in adopting bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset in 2024.



This latest deal could position Strive as the sector’s consolidator of choice, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer said in a research note.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“By using equity as currency, Strive effectively arbitrages the discounts at which bitcoin treasuries have traded, capturing bitcoins per share at attractive levels while likely causing some peers to consider similar moves before they become targets themselves,” Palmer added.



Leverton said the Strive-Semler transaction “took a lot of us by surprise.” Still, she noted: “There’s room for many, many corporations to be successful as they offer different flavors to the investors, which is important in a healthy ecosystem.”&nbsp;



ReserveOne — looking to list on the Nasdaq in Q4 via a merger with M3-Brigade Acquisition V Corp. — seeks to differentiate itself by deploying a diversified strategy (set to hold bitcoin, ether, solana, cardano and XRP). TON Strategy looked to be different by, well, choosing to amass TON.&nbsp;



Then there are a number of companies competing with peers accumulating the same token — whether that’s BTC, ETH or SOL.



One metric critical to a DAT’s survival: solid daily average trading volume, SharpLink Gaming co-CEO Joseph Chalom said during the panel after us — particularly as these companies seek to raise money via at-the-market (ATM) facilities.&nbsp;&nbsp;



While Michael Saylor-led Strategy typically leads this category, Blockworks Research <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/treasury-companies?dashboard=364">data</a> shows BitMine Immersion and SharpLink Gaming usually sitting at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="889" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-154.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108244" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-154.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-154.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-154.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-154.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-154.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-154.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-154.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-154.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-154.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



BitMine Immersion holds ~2.4 million ETH tokens — more than 2% of the asset’s overall supply. It looks to ultimately get to 5%. As of last week, SharpLink Gaming held 838,152 ETH.



But Chalom, a former BlackRock executive, argued the bigger picture for DATs on the Seoul stage.&nbsp;



“Are we fighting over $4 trillion of crypto market cap? Or is our target the $700 trillion of traditional finance market structure that we believe should be on a decentralized network that’s trusted, that’s programmable, that’s digital-native, that [has] atomic, instant settlement?” he said. “If you look at it that way, it doesn’t matter who gets to 5% first. What matters is, are you promoting your protocol?”



His point: DATs are not just vehicles that accumulate crypto. Getting hung up on these companies’ current <a href="https://medium.com/@yves-andre.graf/explaining-the-mnav-as-strategys-main-valuation-method-b0f28f82f65d">mNAVs</a>, for example, is thinking small. An entity owning billions of dollars worth of ETH, after all, can lend, borrow, run transactions, validate, secure transactions, etc.



“We’re going to lift the community, we’re going to seed and support protocols and over time we’re going to help accelerate institutional adoption of digital assets,” Chalom explained. “It’s going to transform the world.”



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Forward Guidance newsletter

The bigger picture for DATs as consolidation begins

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In <a href="https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/p/the-doves-win">yesterday’s edition</a> of the Forward Guidance newsletter, Felix Jauvin broke down Wednesday’s Fed <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fed-cuts-interest-rates-25-bps">rate cut</a>. But it’s also important that we shed some light on the other big thing that went down on Sept. 17.



That would be the SEC approving general listing standards for commodity-based trust shares (a.k.a. crypto ETPs). This was not an unexpected approval by any means, as we knew the SEC was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-etf-launch-timelines-sec">working through this</a>. But the timing seemed to surprise some people, coming a bit earlier than expected.&nbsp;



The US securities regulator shortly after lifted its “stay order” related to Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) — a multi-asset ETP offering exposure to 90% of the crypto market.



Changing its name, the Grayscale CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF hit the NYSE Arca this morning. Its current holdings are:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1174" height="642" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-141.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108077" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-141.png?w=1174 1174w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-141.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-141.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-141.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-141.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-141.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-141.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-141.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1174px) 100vw, 1174px" /></figure>



Each of the tokens GDLC hotels are deemed acceptable (or soon will be) under the new generic listing standards, noted Krista Lynch, Grayscale’s senior VP of ETF capital markets. “To me, it really illustrates the convergence of traditional finance and digital assets and the evolving toolkit we now have to deliver diversified, rules-based crypto products to investors,” she told me.



It takes a lot of time and money to try to launch ETFs, which is all well and good if you know there’s an approval at the finish line. That hasn’t been the case for crypto ETFs historically, with issuers failing for a decade or so to launch US spot bitcoin ETFs, for example. They finally got the green light in January 2024.&nbsp;



But generic listing standards would streamline approvals as long as an ETP proposal meets the set-out requirements:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2140" height="746" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108466" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=2140 2140w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=2048 2048w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Generic-Listing-Standards.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2140px) 100vw, 2140px" /></figure>



First things first: ISG = intermarket surveillance group. DCM = designated contract market. CSSA = comprehensive surveillance sharing agreement.



Galaxy Research associate Lucas Tcheyan noted in an August <a href="https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/digital-asset-etfs-fast-track-sec-approval">report</a> that 10 tokens (beyond BTC and ETH) met the then-proposed generic listing standards: DOGE, BCH, LTC, LINK, XLM, AVAX, SHIB, DOT, SOL, and HBAR. He added that ADA and XRP would soon qualify — after their listing on Coinbase Derivatives (qualifying as a DCM) hits six months.



What does this all mean at a higher level? More products, Bitwise’s CIO expects.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">What impact will Generic Listing Standards have on the crypto ETP space? Here&#39;s what happened when the SEC passed the &quot;ETF Rule&quot; in late-2019, which created Generic Listing Standards for traditional ETFs: The pace of ETF launches rose from ~117/year to ~370/year. Expect the… <a href="https://t.co/acVRLLt8fw">pic.twitter.com/acVRLLt8fw</a>&mdash; Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) <a href="https://twitter.com/Matt_Hougan/status/1967798927673192848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 16, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Hougan told me in an email that the new standards are “a huge milestone that helps clear the path for BITW” — Bitwise’s own crypto index fund. The firm declined to comment on a specific launch timeline.&nbsp;



Hashdex declined to comment too. But a person familiar with the matter said the firm is working on <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/hashdex-crypto-etfs-index-sec-interview">getting additional tokens added</a> to its Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF (NCIQ) “under the conditions of the general listing rule.”



As for the many single-asset crypto ETP proposals in front of the SEC, it would seem a portion of those products won’t be far behind.&nbsp;



A person familiar with the crypto ETF filings told me the SEC has given issuers a Sept. 26 deadline to make the next round of amendments to their solana ETF S-1s. An SEC decision on those proposals is expected by Oct. 10.&nbsp;



“They will also begin to incorporate features like staking, which the framework explicitly permits,” Lynch said of new crypto ETPs. “That creates the potential to unlock meaningful new sources of value for shareholders.”&nbsp;



Quick note on the above: Like with the US ether ETFs, staking might not be enabled in some of these products on Day 1, executives told me this week. I’ll leave Blockworks’ latest Roundtable on staking ETFs <a href="https://blockworks.co/roundtable/designing-etfs-for-a-staking-economy">here</a>.



Bitcoin and ether ETFs, which launched in January 2024 and July 2024, respectively, gave us a glimpse of what pent-up demand can look like. Weekly crypto ETF flows peaked at ~$4.6 billion in mid-July as interest in ETH ramped up, Blockworks Research <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/crypto-etfs">data</a> shows:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="909" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-142.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-108079" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-142.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-142.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-142.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-142.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-142.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-142.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-142.png?w=459 459w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-142.png?w=385 385w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-142.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Just as the BTC and ETH products broke down investor barriers to entry (i.e. complex custody, a lack of regulated vehicles), so too will the coming wave of crypto ETPs for other digital assets.



We know not every altcoin product will attract the same level of demand as the bitcoin or ether products — and maybe not even close.&nbsp;



“But broadening the menu of investable products is critical,” Lynch said. “It expands investor choice, drives demand for education, and pushes the conversation beyond bitcoin and ethereum toward thinking about digital assets as an integrated, diversified asset class.”



When it comes to investing, diversification tends to win out.



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Crypto ETF swell approaching after Grayscale’s latest launch

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We focused on bitcoin’s trajectory yesterday. But I didn’t want to leave out ether and how <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/record-crypto-product-inflows-july-eth">institutional interest</a> in the asset has driven recent momentum.



Just look at the pace at which companies are buying ETH and the simultaneous influx of capital into ETFs holding the asset, particularly compared to BTC.



US bitcoin ETFs last week restored order, so to speak — tallying about $2.3 billion of net inflows, compared to ~$640 million for ether ETFs. This is a turnaround from several recent weeks, during which ETH ETFs rather surprisingly welcomed the lion’s share of new money into crypto investment products.



Blockworks Research <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/crypto-etfs">data</a> shows how ETH ETF inflows surged in July and August — with those products seeing more inflows (or less outflows) than bitcoin ETFs for six straight weeks:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="898" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-126.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107884" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-126.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-126.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-126.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-126.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-126.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-126.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-126.png?w=465 465w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-126.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-126.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



The ETH ETF inflows have come as several crypto treasury companies have been buying ether at scale.&nbsp;



Within roughly the same period as the ETH ETF inflow momentum, companies have bought more ETH than BTC in nine of the last 10 full weeks (we’re still early in the most recent week displayed):



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="916" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107885" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=456 456w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=383 383w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Touting the largest ETH treasury is BitMine Immersion Technologies, which said Monday it now holds more than 2.1 million ETH (worth nearly $10 billion). It’s not hard to find BitMine Chair Tom Lee on television talking about ETH’s potential. For those who don’t know what television is, you can catch his CNBC interviews on the <a href="https://x.com/AltcoinDaily/status/1967760079241032076">internet</a>, too.



Of course, companies like BitMine and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-treasury-strategies-sharplink-eth">SharpLink Gaming</a> are buying ETH itself, not the ETFs. So why exactly are we seeing the ETF inflows and corporate ETH buying coinciding?



It’s perhaps as simple as there being a clearer narrative for Ethereum now, Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart told me. He noted Tom Lee’s interviews as likely contributing to the demand.&nbsp;



“Combined with the fact that ETH bottomed and took off like a rocket ship and people are piling on,” Seyffart said. “Throw in the [digital asset treasury companies’] narrative and it’s all contributing to the price and flows for ETH and ETH ETFs.”



ETH holds the YTD return edge over BTC, 35% to 25%. Here’s what <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/assets/eth?interval=1m">ETH price</a> has done in the last month, as of 2 pm ET:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="916" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107886" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=456 456w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=383 383w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-127.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



But bitcoin ETFs are likely to remain dominant in the flow category in the long term given their simpler proposition as a digital store of value, Seyffart added. Even with the recent ETH ETF momentum, global BTC products have the net inflow edge in 2025: ~$24 billion to ~$12 billion.



“That said, if [ETH] gets to a point where its market value surpasses bitcoin, it&#8217;s likely the ETF side of things would follow suit,” he noted.&nbsp;



Currently at $2.3 trillion for BTC and $540 billion for ETH, that would take a lot.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Near- and long-term ETH expectations&nbsp;&nbsp;</h2>



I’ve written how industry watchers expect a 25bps rate cut from the Fed tomorrow, given soft labor market data. Lower rates generally support risk assets like BTC and ETH.&nbsp;



That said, the bar for a positive surprise is now high, said LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger. “With aggressive Fed easing already priced in, any indication that the committee is less dovish than anticipated could disappoint markets, lifting yields and weighing on equities and crypto alike,” he told me.



Longer-term, Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage <a href="https://hashdex.com/en-US/insights/crypto-s-sleeping-giant-is-waking-ethereum-s-current-investment-case">wrote</a> that ETH’s role as “global plumbing” strengthens as infrastructure scales and tokenization explodes. He expects ETH to surpass $10,000 “once we start to see stablecoin solutions being implemented for US payments.”



As per usual, time will tell.



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ETH’s run vs. BTC: Finished, or early days?

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Figure went public yesterday, and Gemini was set to follow suit today. Somewhat related (you’ll see), we were reminded of how the biggest asset managers could help fuel a tokenization boom.&nbsp;



Let’s hone in on Figure, which just debuted on the Nasdaq. Shares of FIGR opened at $36 on Thursday — 44% above its $25 IPO price. The stock was trading around $33.20 at 1:30 p.m. ET.&nbsp;



Making another appearance in this newsletter (after I cited his <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-stock-digest-sep-2025">COIN vs. HOOD report</a>) is Blockworks Research’s Marc Arjoon. His latest <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/figure-ipo">write-up</a> points out a regulatory edge Figure has over certain competitors — 180 lending and servicing licenses, 48 money transmitter licenses and the distinction of being an SEC-registered broker-dealer.



Founded in 2018, Figure focuses on home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and uses the Provenance Blockchain. The company claimed in a recent <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2064124/000162828025040673/ftintermediateinc-sx1.htm">filing</a> to reduce the time it takes to fund a home equity loan to a median of 10 days (compared to the industry median 42 days).&nbsp;



“With over $17B in equity unlocked for homeowners and 40% of HELOC volume transacted on Connect, Figure is the largest non-bank HELOC lender in the US,” Arjoon noted.



The company — with partners like banks, credit unions, fintechs, etc. — dominates the private credit tokenization space:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="1082" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107709" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=380 380w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=386 386w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=324 324w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Though HELOCs remain Figure’s main offering, the company <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-registered-yield-bearing-stablecoin">introduced a stablecoin</a> earlier this year and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/figure-raises-60m-launches-dex">looks to diversify</a> even more.&nbsp;



Figure building its presence in the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) loans space and expanding into unsecured lending could contribute to its revenue growth in the years ahead, Arjoon predicts.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="1082" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107708" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=380 380w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=386 386w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=324 324w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-109.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Pantera Capital Partner Ryan Barney said in a Thursday letter that he expects Figure to ultimately cement a spot among a cohort of Web3 public companies comparable to the “Magnificent Seven.”



“The reason is simple: They are proving that blockchain can re-architect the foundation of capital markets, not just disintermediate a few steps,” Barney wrote.



Other candidates for such a group could be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-eyes-everything-exchange-q2">Coinbase</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sp-500-hood-mstr">Robinhood</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/takeaways-circles-first-earnings-call">Circle</a>, Gemini, etc. Time will tell.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The BlackRock news we already knew</h2>



On the topic of transforming capital markets, I wanted to at least bring up BlackRock’s tokenization ambitions before we break for the weekend.



A Thursday Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-11/blackrock-seeks-to-tokenize-etfs-after-bitcoin-fund-breakthrough">report</a> (citing anonymous sources) said the world’s largest asset manager is looking into making ETFs available on the blockchain.&nbsp;



No kidding.



The firm declined to comment on specific efforts here. But didn’t you read BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s March investor <a href="https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-annual-chairmans-letter">letter</a>? Plenty of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blackrock-fink-bitcoin-dollar">interesting bits</a>, along with the explicit line: “Every stock, every bond, every fund — every asset — can be tokenized. If they are, it will revolutionize investing.”&nbsp;



So of course BlackRock is looking into that — especially with <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/buidl-collateral-tokenization">the traction</a> the firm has seen with its tokenized money market fund, BUIDL. Nasdaq, as you read recently, is looking to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tradfi-bid-nasdaq-fidelity">tokenize the securities</a> trading on its exchange.



Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas pointed out that he views this more as modernizing rails than a wholesale pivot that will disrupt the nearly $14 trillion ETF industry.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">We need to define the trend better: If by &#39;tokenization&#39; you mean the back office (plumbing) of TradFi will be slightly more efficient by utilizing blockchain technology? Then sure, fine, probably will but zzzz. What is implied tho by the hype is getting actual investors to sell… <a href="https://t.co/SzXROTB9oi">https://t.co/SzXROTB9oi</a>&mdash; Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1966216300004249739?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 11, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Fink noted in that letter that identity verification would have to be solved before tokenized funds become as familiar to investors as ETFs. We’ll need patience as we monitor how these efforts evolve.



That’s enough reading for a Friday afternoon. Get on outta here and enjoy your weekend.



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Weighing Figure’s growth potential after Nasdaq debut

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No one is really arguing whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. The conversation has become: by how much? And how will that impact crypto markets?



It’s perfect timing for such a question, as more data dropped today.



The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% in August (on a seasonally adjusted basis) — up from a 0.2% rise in July. It rose 2.9% for the 12 months ending August, slightly up from the 2.7% annualized figure last month. Core CPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.3% in August, as it did in July.



21Shares crypto investment specialist David Hernandez said this data reinforces that inflation continues to moderate to a level that supports next week’s rate cut expectations.



CME Group’s <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">FedWatch</a> tool (using price data of CME Group&#8217;s 30-day fed funds futures contracts), shows a shift in recent weeks. A month ago, the data implied a ~14% chance the Fed would hold rates steady on Sept. 17. That is now at 0%.&nbsp;



The market, as of Thursday afternoon, thinks a 25bps cut is much more likely than a 50bps cut:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1572" height="334" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-87.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107620" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-87.png?w=1572 1572w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-87.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-87.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-87.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-87.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-87.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-87.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-87.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-87.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1572px) 100vw, 1572px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: FedWatch</figcaption></figure>



“This comes on the heels of yesterday’s PPI report, which pointed to a sharp softening of producer prices, suggesting that pipeline inflation pressures are easing,” Hernandez explained. “Together, the CPI and PPI data support the view that the Fed can afford to cut rates at their FOMC next week, increasing investor confidence across risk assets.”



Along with the CPI and PPI prints, we saw initial claims for state unemployment benefits rise to 263,000 last week. This was above some expectations and the highest total in about four years.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Aug. CPI rose 0.4%, more than expected. Annualized, that&#39;s 5% inflation. However, weekly unemployment claims spiked to 263K, the most since Oct. 2021. The Fed will look past rising inflation and cut rates anyway, due to rising unemployment, a mistake that will worsen stagflation.&mdash; Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1966121258824970729?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 11, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Bitcoin rose above $114,000 yesterday before retreating a bit. It then reached as high as $114,700 this morning. It wasn’t far off that level at 1:45 pm ET:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1544" height="1082" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-89.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107622" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-89.png?w=1544 1544w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-89.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-89.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-89.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-89.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-89.png?w=367 367w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-89.png?w=372 372w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-89.png?w=313 313w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-89.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1544px) 100vw, 1544px" /></figure>



Bitcoin’s next key technical level is just above $115,000, Hernandez explained — “where significant liquidation clusters could fuel increased volatility.” A Fed rate cut and dovish guidance could lead BTC even higher, he said.&nbsp;



“The rate cut opens the door for risk-seeking investors to look beyond bitcoin too — to tokens like solana and XRP, whose ETFs are highly anticipated to debut this fall,” the 21Shares pro argued.&nbsp;



The SEC is set to rule on various US solana ETF proposals by Oct. 10. Not to mention, we saw corporate buying of SOL spike last week, per Blockworks Research data.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="888" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-88.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107621" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-88.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-88.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-88.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-88.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-88.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-88.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-88.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-88.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-88.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



These SOL buys are much smaller than those by companies acquiring BTC and ETH, but they’re becoming more frequent nonetheless. The below chart shows the same time span but with more assets — giving us a sense of the different scales of acquisition. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/be804058-9b6a-485a-8ead-bc82b14b7d3a" width="624" height="341">



Bitwise’s Matt Hougan noted in his latest CIO <a href="https://experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos/solana-season">memo</a>, called Solana Season: “Its promoters argue that Solana is the only blockchain fast enough to support the tokenization of major assets at a global scale.” There’s that word tokenization again. I’m doing my best to give it a rest.



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Federal Reserve

What’s next for crypto markets as Fed rate cut expectation holds?

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I started covering Franklin Templeton half a dozen years ago while on the asset management beat at a B2B finance pub. I wasn’t aware of the term TradFi back then and knew little about crypto.



The $1.6 trillion money manager is still very relevant to my transformed beat. You might remember my July interview with Sandy Kaul, during which she said all Franklin Templeton products are likely to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/franklin-templeton-products-onchain-exec-says">end up onchain</a>.&nbsp;



She promised there’d be more to come. Sure enough, the financial giant said today it would team up with Binance on digital asset initiatives and solutions.



The companies were vague, noting they’d share more details later this year. But essentially, they are combining Franklin’s tokenization muscle with Binance’s trading infrastructure and investor reach to bring offerings with “competitive yield generation and settlement efficiency.”



Blockworks Research data shows Binance’s prevalence in crypto today — with the definitive edge over competitors in spot volume, for example:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1352" height="741" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-76.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107571" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-76.png?w=1352 1352w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-76.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-76.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-76.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-76.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-76.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-76.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-76.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1352px) 100vw, 1352px" /></figure>



As Franklin Templeton’s Sandy Kaul said in a Wednesday statement: “We see blockchain not as a threat to legacy systems, but as an opportunity to reimagine them.”&nbsp;



And so we’ve seen the company migrate more into the crypto segment in recent years. It was one of the dozen or so issuers that lined up to launch a bitcoin ETF in January 2024. But well before that — in 2021 — Franklin launched a money market fund that used the Stellar blockchain to record transactions. A share of the fund is represented by one BENJI token, which the firm made accessible in digital wallets through an app.&nbsp;



I recall Franklin exec Roger Bayston telling me in mid-2023 how BENJI can essentially <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-with-yield-franklin-templeton">act as a stablecoin</a> while also generating income. That conversion was about a year before BlackRock launched a similar yield fund (aka BUIDL), which spurred tokenized treasury momentum.&nbsp;



BUIDL quickly surpassed Franklin’s product in assets under management, with the totals now standing at ~$2.2 billion and ~$740 million, respectively.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Speaking of BlackRock, today’s news kind of reminded me of the world’s largest asset manager <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/industry-watchers-execs-weigh-significance-of-blackrock-coinbase-deal">teaming up with Coinbase</a> in 2022.&nbsp;



The bottom line is this trend of TradFi and DeFi worlds coming together is in no way slowing. That means I’ll have to be cautious about not reusing headlines — whether one from <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tradfi-bid-nasdaq-fidelity">earlier this week</a> or months back. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/42acb2e6-66f9-465c-8d35-6a2474c1a465" width="624" height="183">



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1586" height="344" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-77.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107572" style="width:643px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-77.png?w=1586 1586w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-77.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-77.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-77.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-77.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-77.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-77.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-77.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-77.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1586px) 100vw, 1586px" /></figure>



Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson has said she thinks we’ll see more financial market infrastructure transformation in the next five years than we’ve seen in the last 50.&nbsp;



Translation: It’s a rad time to be a crypto/finance journalist and reader.



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Binance

Fund giant-crypto exchange collab another bid to ‘reimagine’ finance

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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A crypto company plots a US public listing (yes, again). And one wading deeper into the space is likely to benefit from an “index effect” that boosts visibility and demand.&nbsp;



This is a follow-up of sorts to the crypto public listing update I wrote last week. That was after American Bitcoin shares hit the Nasdaq and Gemini took another <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2055592/000110465925085963/tm255912-15_s1a.htm">step</a> toward its IPO.&nbsp;



I also <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-stock-digest-sep-2025">compared Coinbase and Robinhood</a>, noting the latter company was potentially set to join the S&amp;P 500. We found out Friday that HOOD will indeed become part of that index on Sept. 22 — joining COIN, which was added in May. The former stock saw a boost on the news.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1562" height="880" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-70.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107484" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-70.png?w=1562 1562w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-70.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-70.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-70.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-70.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-70.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-70.png?w=463 463w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-70.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-70.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1562px) 100vw, 1562px" /></figure>



Robinhood’s crypto transaction revenue was $160 million in Q2 — making up ~30% of the company’s $539 million in overall transaction revenue. That $160 million figure was down ~37% from Q1 crypto revenue, but marked a 98% year-over-year increase.



Robinhood has doubled down on crypto this year, launching stock tokens in Europe and crypto staking to eligible US customers. It also closed its acquisition of Bitstamp and even <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/robinhood-l2-staking-us">shared plans for a layer-2 blockchain</a>.



So investors with capital in an S&amp;P 500 fund will soon be exposed to both COIN and HOOD automatically. But those still looking to choose between them may consider what Blockworks Research analyst Marc Arjoon called the “beta vs. balance” trade-off.&nbsp;



“Coinbase offers superior upside convexity to crypto cycles but with materially higher earnings volatility,” he wrote in an Aug. 29 report. “Robinhood’s improving, more repeatable EBITDA supports a higher quality multiple.”



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="938" height="516" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-09-at-4.35.21 PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-107490" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-09-at-4.35.21 PM.png?w=938 938w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-09-at-4.35.21 PM.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-09-at-4.35.21 PM.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-09-at-4.35.21 PM.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-09-at-4.35.21 PM.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-09-at-4.35.21 PM.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-09-at-4.35.21 PM.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 938px) 100vw, 938px" /></figure>



Despite speculation that Michael Saylor’s Strategy could also be added to the S&amp;P 500, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin was left out of the index for now. Strategy’s market cap of $93 billion is ~4x above the S&amp;P 500 minimum of $22.7 billion, making it one of the biggest companies not in the index.



The omission says less about Strategy’s business and more about the index committee’s evolving comfort level with bitcoin-centric corporate models, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer argued in a Monday research note. The company, after all, logged a profitable second quarter — the last criteria it required for S&amp;P 500 inclusion.



“But the index is not a purely rules-based club,” Palmer added. “The committee explicitly reserves judgment to maintain sector balance and index representativeness such that a company can ‘check all the boxes’ and still find itself waiting for a slot.”



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Thinking about the S&amp;P right now… <a href="https://t.co/Y5nPc9XT4l">pic.twitter.com/Y5nPc9XT4l</a>&mdash; Michael Saylor (@saylor) <a href="https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1964219505694892123?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 6, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Finally, it’s worth mentioning that CoinShares yesterday revealed a plan to go public in the US later this year via a deal with a SPAC called Vine Hill Capital Investment Corp. It’s currently listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm.



It’s part of CoinShares’ broader strategy to expand in the US after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinshares-buys-valkyrie-fund-business">buying Valkyrie’s fund business</a> last year. The largest crypto ETP issuer in Europe has seen its assets under management triple to about $10 billion over the past two years.



This comes a couple months after we saw competing asset manager <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-exposure-signals-etfs">Grayscale appear to take a step</a> toward going public. All’s to say, the year of crypto-public markets intersection rages on.



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Equities

Inside the S&P 500’s HOOD inclusion, MSTR rebuff

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A Monday <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/nasdaq-sec-tokenized-securities">Nasdaq filing</a> seems to affirm what many of you may have read previously: Tokenization could transform finance sooner than many think.&nbsp;&nbsp;



In a <a href="https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/assets/rulebook/nasdaq/filings/SR-NASDAQ-2025-072.pdf">proposal</a> to the SEC, the exchange seeks to let firms and investors tokenize the equity securities and ETPs they currently trade on the Nasdaq.&nbsp;



More specifically, the approach would allow participants the choice (upon entering an order) to have the Depository Trust Corporation (DTC) clear and settle trades in tokenized form.



Nasdaq noted that tokenized securities are “technologically distinct” from those traded on the exchange today (blockchain tech can offer faster settlements, improved audit trails, etc). But the company emphasized that both the traditional and tokenized types of shares would have the same value, rights/benefits, and market identification number.



Integrating digital assets into Nasdaq’s existing infrastructure “will advance financial innovation while maintaining stability, fairness and investor protection,” the exchange’s VP of North America said in a statement.



Ondo Finance chief strategy officer Ian De Bode said the filing reinforces the vision that blockchain tech can enhance traditional markets while preserving what makes them trusted.&nbsp;



“The same rails that gave people global access to the US dollar will now give global access to US capital markets,” he added.&nbsp;



This filing comes a bit more than a month after SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ made his “Project Crypto” pronouncement — an initiative to let the US financial markets <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-chair-atkins-project-crypto">move onchain</a>. The agency then issued a couple joint statements with the CFTC last week, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-cftc-crypto-coordination">promising collaboration</a> that fosters innovation:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="958" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-60.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107384" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-60.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-60.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-60.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-60.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-60.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-60.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-60.png?w=436 436w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-60.png?w=366 366w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-60.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



With a household name in finance getting on the tokenization train, let’s mention another that has jumped on the bandwagon.



Fidelity launched its Treasury Digital Fund (FHYXX) in December before filing for its OnChain share class in March — allowing it to use both traditional book-entry form and blockchain tech to record share ownership on Ethereum. The new share class went live last month.  



This is Fidelity’s first tokenized investment product — following fellow TradFi behemoths like Franklin Templeton and BlackRock into this realm. Its blockchain representation, the Fidelity Digital Interest Token (FDIT), can be bought/redeemed through Fidelity Investments.



The combined assets under management in BlackRock’s BUIDL, WisdomTree’s WTGXX and Franklin Templeton’s BENJI make up more than half the $7.4 billion tokenized treasury space. FDIT, in its early days, manages roughly $200 million.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="779" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-61.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107385" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-61.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-61.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-61.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-61.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-61.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-61.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-61.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-61.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-61.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Basically, FDIT is a step toward the company building out more efficient systems and interoperability between traditional and onchain investors. Fidelity and other aforementioned financial giants clearly view yield products as a good way to start.&nbsp;



Fidelity’s Cynthia Lo Bessette told me: “Longer-term, we anticipate that market infrastructure will integrate tokenized assets, which will reshape market structure and create new opportunities for investors to access broader asset classes and personalize portfolios.”



And that expectation brings us back to what Nasdaq is trying to do. In other words, more of the financial world is getting on the same page.



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</ul>

Fidelity

The ongoing TradFi bids to enhance markets via blockchain tech

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Because companies accumulating crypto (aka digital asset treasuries, or DATs) have created quite the buzz this summer, it’s worth addressing reported guidance such firms are getting from a major exchange.&nbsp;



The TL;DR, you ask? Nasdaq told companies listed on its exchange that their shareholders, “under certain circumstances,” would need to approve plans to raise money to buy crypto, Yueqi Yang <a href="https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nasdaq-steps-scrutiny-companies-loading-crypto?offer=rtsu-engagement-25%2Crtsu-featured-articles-pro&amp;utm_campaign=RTSU%3A+Nasdaq+Steps+U&amp;utm_content=9928&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=cio&amp;utm_term=6713">reported</a>.



I got ahold of a rep at Nasdaq, who declined to comment.



But let’s take a moment to clarify something. The exchange has not created any new rules specific to crypto-linked companies. Any guidance given to industry firms deals with adhering to existing standards (feel free to peruse those <a href="https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/rulebook/nasdaq/rules/nasdaq-5600-series#nasdaq-rule_5635">here</a>).&nbsp;



Among the companies reportedly in the crosshairs here was Heritage Distilling, Finality Capital Partners’ David Grider’s X post shows.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1178" height="1262" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-56.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107313" style="width:645px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-56.png?w=1178 1178w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-56.png?w=280 280w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-56.png?w=956 956w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-56.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-56.png?w=240 240w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-56.png?w=244 244w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-56.png?w=204 204w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-56.png?w=75 75w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1178px) 100vw, 1178px" /></figure>



My colleague Byron Gilliam — author of <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown newsletter</a> — gave this <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/overconfidence-in-crypto-markets">take</a> yesterday: “That doesn’t seem like a lot to ask — shouldn’t shareholders get to vote on such a major change of direction?”



Put simply, I agree. And others — like Federico Brokate, head of 21Shares’ US business — tell me they too are not surprised, given exchanges long prioritizing investor protection.



“Transitioning to a digital asset treasury significantly alters a company’s risk and return profile, making it crucial for boards and investors to be aligned in their understanding and approval of such a strategic move,” the ex-BlackRock exec said.



Bitwise senior investment strategist Juan Leon added: “The change reinforces a trend: institutional investors are increasingly embracing crypto, but looking for transparency and governance standards.”&nbsp;



The more important question seems to be how this would impact what has become <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/companies-holding-crypto-phase-one">a bit of a craze</a>. The splash of colors on the right side of this chart show how many more companies have begun stockpiling bitcoin, ether and other tokens this summer:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="865" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-57.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107346" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-57.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-57.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-57.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-57.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-57.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-57.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-57.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-57.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-57.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Shares of Strategy — holder of a bazillion or so bitcoin (636,505 BTC, in actuality) — dipped Thursday, seemingly in response to the report.



BitMine Immersion, which boasts the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/eth-treasury-companies-growth">largest corporate ETH treasury</a> and also saw a share price decline Thursday, felt the need to share an X post in the story’s wake.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">For those wondering&#8230; BitMine is listed on the NYSE American. BitMine is able to issue shares via its existing shelf registration without shareholder approval. Ticker: <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BMNR&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BMNR</a> Chairman: Thomas &quot;Tom&quot; Lee <a href="https://twitter.com/fundstrat?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@fundstrat</a>&mdash; Bitmine BMNR (@BitMNR) <a href="https://twitter.com/BitMNR/status/1963687490557980692?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 4, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“We don’t anticipate this rule will significantly deter corporate interest in adding crypto to balance sheets,” Brokate noted. “While it may introduce some delays as boards and shareholders assess the risks and benefits, it’s unlikely to stifle overall demand.”



Leon agreed about Nasdaq’s reported guidance potentially slowing adoption, particularly for smaller companies seeking to replicate MSTR’s model. Over the longer term, it could “concentrate the crypto treasury strategy among better-capitalized, high-conviction firms willing to navigate the governance process,” he added.



That doesn’t seem like a bad thing at all — and could help investors more easily navigate a subsector some <a href="https://fortune.com/crypto/2025/07/30/bitcoin-treasuries/">remain skeptical of</a>. Perhaps you saw what <a href="https://x.com/nic__carter/status/1928447918354149728">Nic Carter</a> and Blockworks’ own <a href="https://x.com/MikeIppolito_/status/1927450775870931015">Michael Ippolito</a> had to say about these vehicles as far back as May.&nbsp;



“For investors, that means the wild-west phase of public companies casually turning into crypto vehicles is ending,” Leon explained.&nbsp;



Perhaps only a handful of these crypto-accumulating machines reach scale and withstand the test of time. But we’re likely to see <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/companies-building-btc-treasuries-corporate-reserves">many more</a> quietly putting a small percentage of reserves toward BTC, for example, as a hedge against uncertainty.



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DATs

Nasdaq’s reported guidance to DATs ‘unlikely to stifle overall demand’

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">subscribe</a>.



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It’s a big week for labor market data. With everything published except for tomorrow’s NFP report, let’s round up all the data we received this week and get an idea of where things stand — and how that contrasts with the expected Fed rate cut this September.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">JOLTS</h2>



It’s always important to remember how lagged the JOLTS report is as a datapoint. This report is from July and, much like the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/jobs-report-number-is-always-wrong">jobs report</a> we received last month, it’s quite weak.



Job openings surprised to the downside at 7.18 million, below the expected 7.4 million.&nbsp;



When we contextualize that alongside how many unemployed people there are, we actually saw the jobs-workers gap go negative for the first time since the pandemic.&nbsp;



Although not an outright sign of recession (we spent the entirety of the 2010s in negative territory), it does highlight the relative weakness of the labor market.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="966" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-42.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107216" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-42.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-42.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-42.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-42.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-42.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-42.png?w=426 426w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-42.png?w=432 432w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-42.png?w=363 363w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-42.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



A key input into the Beveridge curve is the job vacancy rate that comes from this report.&nbsp;



I’m a big fan of the Beveridge curve as it&#8217;s an effective way to gauge the amount of slack in the labor market. Given where we are in the Beveridge curve now, any meaningful weakening in jobs available from this point forward would likely trigger an aggressive increase in the unemployment rate.<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/29059b91-39e2-4e99-a14f-5c4294ded7ec" width="624" height="487">



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">ADP report</h2>



With the recent firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, ADP’s employment data has taken on increased importance in gauging labor market strength.&nbsp;



Although ADP gets a lot of flack since it comes out before NFP and thus has little predictive power, on a longer-term horizon the two actually track quite nicely:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="742" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-41.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107215" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-41.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-41.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-41.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-41.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-41.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-41.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-41.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-41.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-41.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



Today’s ADP report came in below expectations and further emboldened the doves on the FOMC to move forward with a cut in September: <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/f061d7d1-9b9d-402a-b85a-fc4fc8617ec8" width="624" height="487">



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Challenger Survey</h2>



Finally, we received today’s Challenger Survey layoffs report. It showed a 13% YoY increase, which is significant. 



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1404" height="916" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-16.48.45.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107218" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-16.48.45.png?w=1404 1404w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-16.48.45.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-16.48.45.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-16.48.45.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-16.48.45.png?w=394 394w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-16.48.45.png?w=400 400w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-16.48.45.png?w=336 336w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot-2025-09-04-at-16.48.45.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1404px) 100vw, 1404px" /></figure>



As economist Parker Ross noted in tandem with the chart above: “Last Aug. is a tough benchmark, when layoffs were already 81% above the pre-Covid norm, so the fact we&#8217;re up 13% YoY from that elevated level means we&#8217;re now 105% above the pre-Covid norm for Aug., up from 98% in July.”



Even without the NFP report in hand, the present labor market data overall offers plenty of rationale to warrant the Fed cutting rates in a couple of weeks.







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The state of the labor market

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Buzz around <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/evaluating-crypto-stocks-ipos-on-deck">crypto-linked stocks</a> has proved unrelenting.&nbsp;



As shares of such companies continue to hit major exchanges, a few more could also join one of the best-known indexes.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Shares of American Bitcoin — a self-labeled “bitcoin accumulation platform” backed by the Trump Family — became available on the Nasdaq today after a stock-for-stock merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. ABTC opened at $9.22, shot up to above $14 and was back near its opening price by 1:30 p.m. ET.



The company’s listing comes a day after crypto platform Gemini <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2055592/000110465925085963/tm255912-15_s1a.htm">revealed</a> its expected IPO of ~16.7 million Class A common stock shares (estimated price at $17-19 each). The stock would trade as GEMI on the Nasdaq Global Select Market.



But let’s go back to crypto equities already available, as it seems Robinhood (HOOD) and Strategy (MSTR) getting into the S&amp;P 500 could only be a matter of time.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Since launching crypto trading in 2018, Robinhood has <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/robinhood-l2-staking-us">doubled down on the segment</a> with bigger plans. The trading app also met with the SEC’s crypto task force yesterday: <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="blob:https://cms.blockworks.co/aa645a3a-6cc8-4c2f-904d-85642d31d76c" width="624" height="295">



As many investors — rightly or wrongly — compare HOOD to Coinbase, an Aug. 29 <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/research/coin-vs-hood">report</a> by Blockworks Research analyst Marc Arjoon gives us a side-by-side view of both.



HOOD has materially outperformed COIN year to date — with the stock prices up 156% and 18%, respectively, over that span.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“This divergence is likely due to COIN’s equity story remaining tethered to crypto prices and volume, while HOOD has demonstrated resilience by broadening its revenue base across equities, options, crypto, and prediction markets, thereby capturing a wider slice of retail financial activity,” Arjoon wrote.



Robinhood’s market cap recently surpassed Coinbase’s, “underscoring how investors are assigning a premium to HOOD’s diversified growth and monetization model over COIN’s more cyclical, crypto-driven profile,” he added.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="745" height="411" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-21.png" alt="" class="wp-image-107106" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-21.png?w=745 745w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-21.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-21.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-21.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-21.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-21.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 745px) 100vw, 745px" /></figure>



Coinbase has sought to diversify its revenue streams in recent years, with some success. Though its Q2 transaction revenue declined 39% quarter over quarter, its stablecoin revenue grew 12% (with average USDC balances held in Coinbase products reaching $13.8 billion).&nbsp;&nbsp;



The company now looks to build what it calls <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-eyes-everything-exchange-q2">an Everything Exchange</a> — enabling many more assets to trade in a “one-stop shop” on crypto rails.



So COIN has the revenue advantage over HOOD, but shows “far greater cyclicality” in that realm, Arjoon notes:



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="746" height="420" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-22.png" alt="" class="wp-image-107105" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-22.png?w=746 746w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-22.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-22.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-22.png?w=464 464w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-22.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-22.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 746px) 100vw, 746px" /></figure>



Let’s also touch on another company <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microstrategy-eyes-p-500-analyst-201103867.html">some think</a> could soon enter the S&amp;P 500: Strategy. You might recall the largest corporate bitcoin holder (now with 636,505 BTC)&nbsp; joining the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mstr-and-bitcoin-standard-etf-filing">Nasdaq 100 index</a> in December.&nbsp;



MSTR stock is down ~14% in the past month. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer attributed that to a compressing market premium to its underlying bitcoin holdings and a choppy macro environment.&nbsp;



You might have seen Strategy take some heat (on Crypto Twitter, at least) for relaxing what Palmer noted is a “self-imposed constraint.” The company told investors in late July that it would only use its common-stock ATM to buy bitcoin when its <a href="https://medium.com/@yves-andre.graf/explaining-the-mnav-as-strategys-main-valuation-method-b0f28f82f65d">mNAV</a> was at least 2.5x — aiming to prevent it from issuing equity when the stock traded too close to the value of its underlying BTC.&nbsp;



But around the time MSTR’s mNAV slid toward 1.6x, Strategy said it may tactically issue shares to meet fixed obligations and “when otherwise deemed advantageous” even if mNAV is below 2.5x. That gives it the option to buy bitcoin with equity even during premium troughs.&nbsp;



“The company’s subsequent decision to adjust course when the guideline itself became counterproductive by starving the program of cheap capital exactly when bitcoin weakness created attractive entry points was an appropriate move,” Palmer argued in a Tuesday note.&nbsp;



Palmer reiterated his buy rating of MSTR and its price target of $705 (it stood at ~$335 this afternoon).



Finally, on the aforementioned Circle and Bullish: CRCL shares were trading for about ~$118 Wednesday afternoon — up 280% from its $31 IPO price. BLSH’s ~$54 stock price was about 50% higher than its $37 IPO price.



More to come here, no doubt.



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Crypto stock digest: Listing updates, COIN vs. HOOD

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September is here, marking the non-technical end of summer, back to school and — oh yeah — the worst month (historically) for bitcoin.&nbsp;



Some have attributed lower market returns in the year’s ninth month (not just for BTC, but for the S&amp;P 500, too) to post-summer rebalancing. Investors — inside and outside the crypto segment — return from vacations, re-evaluate portfolios and, perhaps, choose to lock in gains/cut losses, putting downward pressure on prices.



I looked back at <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/september-events-that-could-move-markets">a piece I wrote</a> exactly one year ago about the September events that could move markets. It discussed a possible mid-month Federal Reserve rate cut (<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fed-interest-rate-cut-50-bps#">which happened</a>, sized at 50bps) and a then-upcoming SEC decision on allowing bitcoin ETF options (<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-btc-etf-options">indeed finally approved</a>).



The current odds for the Fed lowering rates in a couple weeks (albeit with a 25bps cut) are ~92%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>. While an interest rate cut is generally good for risk assets, the impact could <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-markets-post-jackson-hole">be more nuanced</a>.



Rather than the SEC approving options on BTC funds a year ago, the regulator could soon clarify the fate of many more crypto ETP proposals. But it’s not all that different.&nbsp;



To remind you, though, how much has changed since Sept. 2, 2024, that story featured a photo of Kamala Harris and questioned the fate of then-SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Also, bitcoin and ether have risen 94% and 78%, respectively, in the past 12 months.



Early into September 2025, we see bitcoin roughly 11% off its high of ~$124,000 hit last month. The asset’s performance in August (-6.5%) was its worst since February (-17.4%).



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="961" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-8.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107008" style="width:755px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-8.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-8.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-8.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-8.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-8.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-8.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-8.png?w=435 435w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-8.png?w=365 365w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-8.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



BTC dipped to ~$107,000 this weekend and hovered around $111,000 Tuesday afternoon. Compass Point analysts Ed Engel and Abdullah Dilawar noted the average cost basis for short-term holders (those who bought less than six months ago) is around $109,000. Of BTC supply bought in the past six months, they added, 30% was acquired above $115,000.



“This points to a top-heavy market, where short-term holders often accelerate selling when unrealized losses become too high,” Engel and Dilawar wrote. “While BTC has rebounded back above $109,000, we would like to see negative funding rates and/or more short-term holder capitulation before buying any dips.”



So they gave us a couple price points to keep in mind. Want another one? Bitfinex analysts have you covered.



“While this [BTC] breakdown carries technical weight, historical drawdown patterns and seasonality suggest the market is actually in the later stages of its corrective phase, with [$93,000 to $95,000] emerging as the most probable zone for a cyclical floor.”



Ether also dipped this weekend — about a week after hitting an all-time high. But it’s been more resilient than BTC of late, given <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/record-crypto-product-inflows-july-eth">ETH ETF inflows</a> and institutional buying (NYSE American-listed BitMine Immersion held 1,866,974 ETH, as of Aug. 31). ETH, as of an hour ago, was trading around $4,300.



Spot ether ETFs had a big August, notching nearly $4 billion of net inflows. About $300 million, meanwhile, trickled out of bitcoin products, CoinShares data shows:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1468" height="674" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-7.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107007" style="width:769px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-7.png?w=1468 1468w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-7.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-7.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-7.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-7.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-7.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-7.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-7.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1468px) 100vw, 1468px" /></figure>



You can see, too, last month’s flows into solana and XRP products — in part reflecting optimism around potential US ETF launches.&nbsp;



SEC approval of such products, which <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-etf-launch-timelines-sec">I expect next month</a>, would contribute to the potential <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/altcoin-autumn">“altcoin autumn”</a> I wrote about last week. Particularly if we see the SEC unveil general listing standards for crypto ETPs.



And the growing number of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/issuers-filing-crypto-etf-frenzy">crypto ETF filings</a> continue to, well, keep growing. Grayscale Investments submitted S-1s for ETFs that would hold cardano (ADA) and polkadot (DOT) late last week — following up on previous 19b-4s linked to those proposed products.&nbsp;



The likely crypto investment product boom might have to wait for next month’s “Uptober” outlook. But it’s just another thing to be mindful of as various market narratives simultaneously play out.



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