What it would take for bitcoin to top all-time highs 

Forward Guidance’s Felix Jauvin noted that he’s bullish on both crypto and bitcoin on a “mean reversion basis”

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I have some good news: The Forward Guidance guys — Felix Jauvin and Quinn Thompson — still feel pretty good about bitcoin. 

But I also have some bad news: Thompson’s not super keen on alts here. 

In this morning’s episode of Empire, we saw two worlds collide as Empire’s Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Santos spoke to Thompson and Jauvin about the macro outlook and, of course, crypto. 

Aside from Thompson’s astute point that he’s finding certain levels in crypto to be “interesting” but not necessarily worth throwing “a dart on the dartboard,” Jauvin’s points about bitcoin’s potential performance caught my attention. 

“ I’m bullish Bitcoin and crypto on a mean reversion basis, but for an explosion past all-time highs on — let’s focus on Bitcoin, ’cause I do think our asset class is getting old enough where we start piecing those apart separately,” he explained. To sum it up: Folks would have to bet against President Trump’s investment thesis if we want bitcoin to jump past all-time highs.

Basically, Jauvin argues that some of the things that aren’t great for macro — like the bond market and US dollar losing faith, and the Federal Reserve being forced to act — would be fantastic for bitcoin. 

“These are factors that bitcoin was born for,” he noted. 

It’s not stopping Jauvin from remaining bullish on things like stablecoins and the underlying technological advances pushing crypto forward, though. 

“ People want alts to leverage Bitcoin a lot. You almost might be better off if you look at the stats and run the ratios of risk leveraging your Bitcoin,” Thompson explained.


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Compute demand is two-sided, the precondition for any hedging market. Producers (neoclouds and independent data centers) fear their inventory clears below cost. Consumers (inference platforms and the agentic application layer) fear compute will get more expensive. The common read holds that nonfungibility keeps both off any general exchange, since a buyer wants a named SKU in a named region rather than a basket, so the trade stays bilateral and the only exchange users are dealers hedging their book. That describes launch conditions, but understates how commodity markets form. Canonical benchmarks get made through trading, and reservations standardize as the curve deepens. The dealer-intermediated structure is not the end state, it is the seed of one.

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