The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher.
This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds.
We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising
07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates?
11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff?
16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix?
19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade
23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom?
26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over
29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff?
35:55 How Do You Trade This Market?
39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets?
44:21 What Is The Market Hiding?
50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks
53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders?
58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› DCP – https://x.com/Dcpcooks
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn– https://x.com/qthomp
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› Blockworks. –https://x.com/Blockworks
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_6xkDwJy-Ux1Ko3q8H8LmOfbVNk-tTlI/view?usp=sharing
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th
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DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.