As of midnight, the U.S. government has officially shut down after Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a last-minute deal. In today’s Breakdown, NLW explores the political brinkmanship behind the shutdown, how the White House may use it to reshape federal programs, and the macroeconomic fallout as millions of workers go unpaid. From consumer confidence and labor market risks to gold at all-time highs, Bitcoin resilience, and AI’s outsized role in holding up U.S. growth, we examine whether this shutdown could be the shock that tips the economy into recession—or just another political spectacle markets shrug off.

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