In this episode, we explore how a sudden oil shock and geopolitical conflict can quickly rewrite the global macro outlook, forcing markets and policymakers into a difficult balancing act between inflation and growth.
We sit down with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to unpack how the Iran-driven oil shock fits into today’s fragile, savings-driven economy.
We discuss oil shocks past and present, policy sequencing, bond market reactions, global currency impacts, and why markets may be underestimating the second-order effects of rising energy prices. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
02:30 Oil Shock Challenges & Today vs 2022
10:13 Contrasting the 2008 & 1970s Oil Shocks
15:15 The Energy Shock Impact on Households
19:16 How Will Central Banks & Bonds React?
29:50 Ads (Arkham)
30:38 Oil Shock Sequence of Events
32:28 Iran War's Asymmetric Regional Impact
39:00 What Happens to Gold?
42:02 Understanding a Wartime Economy
46:36 Final Thoughts
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Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.